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TGIF: Surely You Can’t Be Serious

This Saturday at 2:15pm, I will be part of my first fantasy football draft of 2008. I am hoping to rebound from my 10th place finish from last season and have been conducting very extensive research to assure I can achieve maximum potential on my draft day.

The football season is won or lost in the draft room; a bad draft day spells certain doom for your team. Over the past several years, I have more often that not ignored the old standard advice of drafting which is to take a running back with your first two picks. This kind of reckless practice has caused me to have an all or nothing approach to the game as evident by the fact that I either make it to the league championship game or I miss the playoffs completely. You would think that I have learned my lesson this time around. Yeah, not even close.

THE STORY

At a recent lunch with some close friends (who are also in this upcoming draft), the topic of conversation ranged from sexual innuendos to draft day strategy. The focus on everybody’s minds that day was the draft despite the fact we all went to the movies and saw “The Dark Knight.” I was sitting next to SoB’s KC and as soon as the film ended and the credits rolled, KC turns to me and instead of commenting on how good the movie was, he just blurts out “I’m taking Joseph Addai.” Bunch of characters we are, I tell ya.

Anyway, as we sat at lunch, we all had one thing in common: every year, we have QB problems. Thinking back to my QB situation last season, the names Jon Kitna and Matt Schaub immediately came back to haunt me. Suddenly, an epiphany: Just take a QB in round one to avoid a QB problem. In a default league this would be a case closed scenario because a public league only requires one QB slot. In this custom league, we are required to fill two QB slots. This type of roster means that waiting around for a quality QB is not an option. Suddenly, another thought comes to fruition: Just take two QB’s with your first two picks. OK voice in my head, now you are just talking crazy. Or is he?

THE TWO QB THEORY

The league settings for this league are as follows: QB, QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, K, DEF. This is identical to the SoB league (which by the way you can join…yes, it’s a shameless plug).  Now, league point values vary from league to league and in in this one out of the top 12 total points leaders, 8 of them are QB’s and all of the QB’s accumulated over 200 points for the season. In fact, just 6 RB’s scored over 200 points.

We have always used Yahoo! Fantasy Sports, and this year, according to their ranking system, they have just one QB in the top 12 (Tom Brady). The rest of the 12 are filled up by 10 RB’s and one WR (Randy Moss).

So let’s say you are in a scenario where you have a pick somewhere in the middle of a draft, maybe pick 7 or 8. At this point, a lot of the elite options like Tomlinson, Peterson, Westbrook, Addai, etc. are already gone and now you don’t want to draft a RB that you know won’t get you the huge numbers that the top tier RB’s can get you. If you are looking for those huge points and a player who can get you those 200+, then why not take a QB. Heck, in that draft position, you can grab Brady easily. Every year at least one QB is off the board in the first round.

Round two comes along and the pick is coming your way. Do you take a RB now? No, you don’t. At this point, QB’s like Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Tony Romo, and Derek Anderson will still be up for grabs. All these QB’s achieved the 200+ point plateau in 2007 and all are poised to do it again. So with your first two picks, you have two QB’s but more importantly you have two players who can get you more points combined than two RB’s you could have drafted at pick number 7 or 8.

WHAT ABOUT RB’s PETE?

Good question. So, you’ve missed out on RB’s who can achieve huge points in your first two rounds. I guess your draft is a waste and the season is over. Don’t be so quick to dismiss your football year just yet. When Round 3 circles back to you, everybody else in the league will have most likely filled up on RB’s and are now targeting a QB or WR. This leaves the door open for you to grab some RB’s who are on the rise or have the potential for good years. For example we have Michael Turner, Reggie Bush, Earnest Graham, and Edgerrin James. All those RB’s are slated to be grabbed in the third round.

Then of course we have the ever-so-dangerous area of rookies. True, most rookies won’t be much to write home about. That doesn’t mean you can’t achieve some success, and especially at a good price. Rookies that will most likely either be starters right out of the gate or get the majority of the carries include: Darren McFadden (OAK), Jonathan Stewart (CAR), Kevin Smith (DET), and Matt Forte (Chicago). I am not saying any of them can be this season’s Adrian Peterson but, they can consistently get you the points you need every week.

CONCLUSION

The RB, RB approach to drafting may not be the way to go this season. In this case, I am making these judgments in a custom league with custom settings. Always know your league’s settings before you draft. In this situation, the QB, QB theory is without question an interesting way to go.

Having two star QB’s can not only get you huge points every week but, even if you are unhappy with any other part of your team, you have put yourself in prime position for trading. Come on, if you actually drafted a two QB team with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning at the helm, your team would be untouchable. Especially in 2007, you actually could have drafted those two for your team! I have seen what the power of two QB’s can do. Just look at the 2004 season. SoB’s Dan actually had both Daunte Culpepper (4,717 yds, 39 TD) and Peyton Manning (4557 yds, 49 TD) on his team. Dan that season won 12 straight weeks and only lost in the playoffs because both Culpepper and Manning were benched by their coaches late in the season.

You can call me crazy all you want but, I know some of my wisdom is creeping into your heads. Give it a shot if you dare. What’s the worst that could happen?

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Discussion

3 comments for “TGIF: Surely You Can’t Be Serious”

  1. I’m going for 6 QBs Saturday.

    Posted by Chris | July 25, 2008, 10:43 am
  2. [...] has clearly heeded the advice of the “Two QB Theory”. He used his two first picks on QB’s. Due to the trade with KC, he got two first rounders. As [...]

    Posted by TGIF: SoB Football League Draft | Sports of Boston | September 5, 2008, 5:55 am
  3. [...] I even suggested drafting two QB’s with your first two picks last season. Did I follow through on that strategy? No! Instead, I took [...]

    Posted by TGIF: Wait on Wide Receivers | Sports of Boston | August 7, 2009, 1:32 pm

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