|Notes and Observations Week 15: Patriots Blow Out Dolphins 41-13; Clinch AFC East||Connelly’s Top Ten: Patriots Defense, Special Teams Carry Home Team||Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Week 15||Right Idea? Red Sox Bring in Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson|
A few weeks ago I mentioned how I thought Adrian Peterson was overrated. Again, I’d like to point out that I know he is an incredible athlete, I was just pointing out why he was not worthy of a top two or even three pick. This put the wheels in my mind in motion and drove me to thinking about who else was an overrated player. I don’t believe these players to be worthless to their teams in a real life situation, I am calling them overrated based on how they perform in a fantasy universe.
Which QB’s often get overvalued?
Last season, Roethlisberger threw 32 TD’s and only 11 INT’s. His previous high was 18 TD’s which occurred in 2006. Roethlisberger’s sudden ability to find the end zone only happened due to Willie Parker’s inabilty to find the end zone (2 rushing TD’s). With new rookie Rashard Mendenhall in the backfield, expect more goal line carries instead of goal line passes. Also, 20 of Roethlisberger’s TD’s came in the first 8 games of 2007 and in the last 8 games, he topped 200 yds only twice.
I have no idea why people are so high on this man. Anybody who has almost twice as many INTs as TDs is not worthy of praise. His 2007 numbers were appalling (9 TDs, 17 INTs), but he did manage 395 rushing yds and 3 rushing TDs. If the man didn’t have wheels, he wouldn’t be worthy of drafting. Yeah, I said it! Young will bounce back because he can’t have another terrible season like that again. On the field, he is a leader and the Titans did win 10 games last season. That result really wasn’t due to Young though. The Titans were 5th in the NFL in rushing last season with 131.8 rush yds per game and had a 1,110 yd back in Lendale White. Also, the Titans defense allowed 291.6 yds per game which was 5th best in the league. The point is, you can’t say the Titans are good because of Young. At best, you can expect 13 TDs and about 400 rushing yds.
Why is he being drafted with the expectations of another 4,000 yd season? In case you missed it, Mike Martz doesn’t run the Detroit offense anymore. With the drafting of rookie Kevin Smith, the Lions have decided to become a more run-heavy offense. Even if they weren’t, Kitna still isn’t a good first QB on your team. Yes, the 4,000 yds are pretty but, the 18 TDs are crap. In both his season’s in Detroit, he had more picks than TDs. I mean come on, the man plays his home games indoors and his career numbers on turf are 67 TDs, 71 INTs.
Who are the most overvalued RB’s?
In 2007, Jacobs averaged 5.0 yards-per-carry and passed the 1,000 yd mark. That seems impressive, but if you look closer you see that Jacobs was constantly injured in 2007 and missed five games. Yes, when he is healthy he is god-like, but he is not healthy enough to be a dependable back taken in the first round or even the second. Plus, the Giants backfield has now become a committee situation. Reuben Droughns, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Derrick Ward are all going to figure into the mix. If Jacobs isn’t durable enough or putting up big numbers week to week, he might become at best a #3 back.
If your hoping for a 1,000 yd back and double digit TD, then please look elsewhere. Graham made a splash by scoring 10 rushing TD and rushing for 898 yds despite not beginning the season as a starter. Well who cares? Graham only average 59.9 yds per game and barely average 4.0 yds per carry. Hell, that backfield is crowded enough with Michael Pittman, Warrick Dunn, Michael Bennett and a rehabbing Cadillac Williams. He adds a small amount of value due to his 49 receptions but it isn’t enough for this guy.
Brown was the best fantasy RB until he tore his ACL in week seven against New England. He was averaging 5.1 yds per carry before the fall. Now, he is rebounding from his injury and a torn ACL is nothing you should gamble on. The Dolphins probably won’t give Brown a huge load of carries until he is fully healed and Ricky Williams has reportedly been looking good in camp and in Miami’s preseason game. To sum it up, torn ACL recovery + splitting carries = don’t draft early.
Tags: Adrian Peterson, Ben Roethlisberger, Brandon Jacobs, Detroit Lions, Earnest Graham, Fantasy, Jon Kitna, Miami Dolphins, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, Ronnie Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, TGIF, Vince Young, Warrick Dunn