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TGIF: Zack Greinke Owners Beware!

All good things must come to an end. Oh, and they will. Currently, Kansas City’s Zack Greinke is the best pitcher in fantasy baseball. The first month of the season has seen Greinke win all five of his starts which include two complete games and two starts with at least 10 strikeouts.

However, this kind of scorching hot start seems a little too familiar for anybody who was a Greinke owner last season. If recent trends continue, then you may want to start thinking about selling while Greinke’s stock is at its zenith.

At this time last season, Greinke was also one of the best if not the best pitcher in fantasy baseball. After one month of action in 2008, Greinke was 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA which included a complete game. Do any of these elements sound familiar yet? Owners were flying high and felt on top of the world for such a great bargain bin draft pick. Then May came along…

May was not as nice to Greinke when he posted a 2-2 record and 4.38 ERA. OK, everyone is entitled to a bad month. So Greinke must have bounced back in June right? WRONG!

June treated Zackary even worse than May when he had a 5.25 ERA in six games started with a deplorable WHIP of 1.42 and a staggering 9 HR’s allowed.

July continued Greinke’s string of misfortune with a 1-3 record, 5.22 ERA and season worst 1.57 WHIP. Even more worrisome was the fact that opposing hitters teed off on Greinke when they hit .311 against him.

Finally after three months of torture, Grineke finally settled down somehow and finished the season in strong fashion with a 2.61 ERA in the final two months of 2008. By that time though, owners had abandoned ship and Greinke had either been traded or dumped into free agency. I can’t blame you if you did. If a pitcher is not performing then you don’t play them.

So what do we do this season? Well if history repeats itself, then I highly suggest that you cut ties with Zack Greinke before the ship starts to sink. Hell, even if he did not collapse last season, with such a great start to 2009 (0.50 ERA in 36 IP), I would suggests trading him anyway to some poor sucker who thinks he can actually keep this up.

If you are a believer in the past repeating in the present, then give up on Greinke. If you own him and need help in other areas on your team, then sell while the stock is through the roof. Either way, the moral of the story today kids is: SELL! SELL! SELL!

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Discussion

7 comments for “TGIF: Zack Greinke Owners Beware!”

  1. So you want me to trade him to you?

    Posted by KC | May 1, 2009, 6:52 am
  2. You are assuming that the Zack Greinke you are looking at this year is the same guy you saw last year. He’s not. It would take too long to list all of the reasons why, but the upshot is he will sustain it this year.

    Posted by ecp | May 1, 2009, 1:03 pm
  3. I am a firm believer in history repeating itself.

    Plus Greinke has never held up over a full season.

    This may be the year, but I am still skeptical.

    Posted by Pete | May 1, 2009, 4:20 pm
  4. You were absolutely right about this. That 6th win that was *another* complete game shutout against the White Sox showed me this kid DOES repeat history.

    Posted by Billy | May 5, 2009, 12:09 am
  5. I’ll wait to trade Greinke when he has a couple more shutouts.

    Posted by KC | May 5, 2009, 5:08 am
  6. Oh Billy, that sounds like sarcasm to me.

    Like Chipper Jones hitting .400 for most of the first half last season, Greinke will obviously never keep this up.

    Sell while the stock is high because I know you will all be in a panic when he has his first bad start of the year.

    Posted by Pete | May 5, 2009, 12:58 pm
  7. [...] I royally f**cked up with my Zack Greinke predicition. I admit it, I was wrong. Let’s get over it. In the case of McLouth, we all know I am [...]

    Posted by TGIF: Nate McLouth Traded to Atlanta | Sports of Boston | June 5, 2009, 5:20 am

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