I’m not sure I totally agree with Sharkey undervaluing Jacoby as much as he did, but I do agree with KC by looking at this deal in terms of what we NEED now. The Sox offense is not rooted in manufacturing runs, sorry, that ain’t our game and you saw how that worked out for us this past season. Jacoby had his 70 steals and it really didn’t make a difference besides impressing us with his speed. I really like the kid, but he will be better suited in the NL and the canyon that is Petco Park. Now should he be traded, I have no doubt he will feast on mediocre pitching the NL West and NL have to offer and make Sox fans who don’t get it moan and groan that Theo blew it, but they don’t understand how superior the AL and AL East is over the NL and the NL West. And they also won’t understand the change of scenery from the friendly and small confines of Fenway Park vs. the vast expanses (and gaps) Petco Park has to offer should greatly elevate Ellsbury’s hypothetical stats.

Like KC said, without a big bat and not having Bay, there is no way that lineup could net us a World Series. I don’t think we could win the division either.

Oh and I hate Beltre, but I suppose he’s better than a hobbling Lowell.

Great work guys! Good stuff.

I’m a bit jaded about Beltre, so my analysis of him as a player is admittedly a bit opinion heavy.

Having said that, Beltre posted his 48 HR superstar year in Chavez Ravine/Dodger Stadium, notoriously a pitcher’s ballpark. That’s one of the reasons the Mariners signed him to such a big contract: they thought he would still produce big numbers in Safeco.

Take out Beltre’s aberration year stats (and even his worst year to be fair) his career averages in 10 seasons drop to: .265 AVG, .320 OBP, 20 HR, .436 SLG.

If anything, you can further lower those power numbers considering they were largely put together during the peak of the steroid era. The power potential you describe (.436 slugging?) is nowhere to be found.

It’s based on this data, and the fact Beltre wants to be paid in the $13 million range, that I completely dismiss him as an option to play 3B for the Sox.

Also, Beltre’s home/away splits last year (admittedly cherry picked): 4 HR at Safeco, 4 HR on the road in 51 and 54 games, respectively. Yuck.

Charlie: I haven’t read SOSH since 2003, but even back then Eric Van was writing some amazing analytical posts. He makes a good point about Ellsbury’s potential value, but even if he were to achieve his full potential next season, he’ll do it in LF, diminishing his overall value.
The Fangraphs projections are interesting, but Beltre’s offense at a 7.2 is a pipe dream. His lifetime stats are nearly identical to Hermida, and Beltre’s complete aberration 2004 season already pumps ups his otherwise mediocre seasonal averages. The Gonzalez/Youkillis projections are far too close. In Fenway, Gonzalez would have an OPS well above 1.000. And where is the Lackey/Buchholz value correlation? That’s a huge part of that overall comparison.

Alan: You’re absolutely right. Jacoby’s 70 steals is a huge part of his value that simply wasn’t addressed in this post. However, just thinking out loud, how could Ellsbury have 70 steals atop that lineup and not score over 100 runs?

KC: You make a great point about the Sox needs, now and into the future. Lars Anderson was a complete bust in AA last year. Without him, they have no one even remotely close to the bigs to fill their corner infield holes. They know this, and that’s why they are pursuing Gonzalez so hard.

George: I have no clue what the asking price is. This piece is pure speculation. However, if you’re in Hoyer’s position how could it be any less? I also wrote this piece thinking: Hoyer and Epstein are friends and colleagues, and they even worked together last year trying to get Gonzalez. When Hoyer got the SD job, how could Theo not say: Just tell us exactly what it would take?
Pitching and defense is critical to success, but without a strong offense, particularly in the AL East, a team doesn’t stand a chance. It’s all about balance.

KC: Ditto on balance.

George: It’s not about HR, it’s about having a balanced lineup. The Sox need a big run producer to anchor this lineup now and into the future. In particular, they need a run producer that plays corner infield… and if he does so with a gold glove you have Adrian Gonzalez.

I just don’t agree with the whole notion that you need to hit HRs to score in baseball. The point is just to score more than your opponent and if you have great defense and great pitching (which the Sox have) then your offense doesn’t need to be as good as the Yankees to win. Plus, the Red Sox have five guys capable of hitting 25+ home runs if healthy.

I would love to see an article about how valuable Ellsbury’s 70 steals were to the Red Sox total offense as opposed to Bay’s 36 HRs. Not totally sure how it would translate, but I bet you it’s pretty damn close to equal if not in Ellsbury’s favor. So I just don’t buy that this team is desperate for Adrian. Would I love to get him? Yes, but trade away Buchholz, Ellsbury and two prospects for him…might want to reconsider.

and…

The Red Sox had their best defensive season in team history in 2006 (just 66 errors!!!)…and coincidentally missed the playoffs with an 86-76 record.

Their worst defensive season this decade (118 errors, .981 fielding %) was in 2004 when they won the whole thing. I know their D dramatically improved down the stretch…but the number is still telling.

They won titles in 2004 and 2007 with incredibly potent offenses (Thanks to Manny and Ortiz), deep pitching staffs (Pedro, Schilling, Lowe in 2004…and Beckett, Schilling, Lester in 2007), and good defense. Balance in all three phases is important.

That being said, it wouldn’t make sense for the Padres to trade away the face of their franchise and not get either Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland in return. Buchholz is definitely the key, but does Jacoby Ellsbury really fit on the Padres? He will be arbitration eligible next year and his agent is Scott Boras so you can expect some money to be flowing his way. Also, if everything you say about him is true, he is more of a role player rather than a guy you build a team around and the chances the Padres are contenders by 2013 are very slim. Ellsbury will be 30 years old by then so why not ask for prospects that will just be coming into their own at that time?

If the Red Sox keep Ellsbury they could stick him in LF and would have the best defensive OF in baseball. The Red Sox could trade Hermida ($3M) for a corner infielder if they felt the need to, but going into the season with Kotchman at 1B wouldn’t cripple this team.

SS Scutaro
2B Pedroia
3B Youkilis
C Martinez
DH Ortiz
RF Drew
CF Cameron
1B Kotchman
LF Ellsbury

…not too shabby.

I mentioned in an earlier column that there is no direct correlation between Red Sox success and home runs or even runs scored and home runs, but there is a direct correlation between success and defense. It’s a theory that has been proven in every sport and it’s that good defense and timely offense wins championships and it’s no different here. It’s why the Patriots lost in their “perfect” 2007 season, but won 3 of 4 from 2001-2004 and it’s why the Celtics won in 2008.

In conclusion, this is not a do or die situation and the Red Sox are not obligated to trade for a big bat to make this offseason successful. They have already added 3 very crucial pieces for the upcoming season and have made this team better in the process.

It’s clear that Theo & co. want a power hitter (they tossed $170 million at Mark Teixeira last offseason). They also have absolutely no power in the minor leagues unless Lars Andersen can live up to some of his hype. Also, there’s not much power on the free agent market, and the Sox are losing their best power hitter from 2009 in Bay.

The Sox have a lot of pitchers and outfielders coming up in the next few years, and are weak at the corner infield positions. So, based on their current situation, Gonzalez is more valuable to the Sox than Buchholz and Ellsbury (especially after the Lackey signing).

Ellsbury is a special player, but I think a speedy outfielder with the potential to be a good leadoff hitter (he’s not there yet) is easier to find than a 40-HR potential, Gold Glove first baseman that’s just 27 years old. If the Sox can extend Gonzo five years beyond his current two-year deal, then I’d definitely go for it. The Sox would have Gonzo for seven years until he’s 34, which is basically all of his prime years. In that time, Westmoreland should be ready to come up, along with Kalish and anyone else the Sox dig up from their system.

I’m with Sharkey on this one, but maybe the Sox can wait until midseason to see how Ellsbury/Buchholz play before dealing for Gonzalez. By then, however, it may be too late…