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Last-Minute Fantasy Football Draft First Pick Strategy in 2-QB Leagues

Adrian Peterson

Here’s some last-minute fantasy football draft advice for those in a two-quarterback league. Who should you draft: Adrian Peterson or one of the top quarterbacks?

Generally, the top performers at each position last year finished at similar levels. That changes a little from year to year, too, but generally the league rules are the biggest factor.

In leagues with standard scoring that start two quarterbacks, QBs and RBs have a similar standard deviation in terms of points, with QB slightly ahead. The top performer at each position last year, however, was different. The top running back had a larger gap between the average player at the position and the last player at the position of the 24 who scored the most. This is, however, almost all because of Peterson himself. Without AP in the numbers, the quarterback runs away from the field.

Last year, Peterson was by far and away the best RB, while the top QB (Drew Brees), was closer to the Brady/Rodgers/Manning pack. I think it comes down to if you think that will happen again. If you think AP can do what he did last year, then he is the pick, according to the scoring settings. If not, then draft the best quarterback, which may be any of the top guys.

The thing is, Peterson has had a year close to this good (2,097 yards) only 2 out of his 6 seasons. An AP season of even 1,600 yards would make drafting a quarterback the right call. AP’s year last year was the second best in history, based on yards.

I think the QB pick is a lot safer. If AP has another historically good season, then you will be down only a few points, and the QBs are all more likely to repeat. AP can be great and still not live up to the bar he set last year and fall way short of an average Brees or Rodgers year.

This analysis was compiled in a guest post by Jonah Kaitz.

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