Sports of Boston » Fantasy

Matt Schaub Joins List of Those Injured in Houston

Stephen Garcia — Sat, 19 Nov 2011 01:15:05 +0000

The injury bug is spreading like an actual disease in Houston and quarterback Matt Schaub is the latest victim.

The remainder of Schaub’s season is in serious jeopardy after he suffered a Lisfranc joint injury in his right foot, according to the Associated Press. Schaub injured his foot on a quarterback sneak. The injury to Schaub is the third to a major star in Houston this season. Outside linebacker Mario Williams has been on injured reserve since Week 6 and star receiver Andre Johnson has missed the team’s past six games. Johnson will return after the Texans’ bye week but he will now have lefty backup Matt Leinart throwing to him.

The former Heisman winner will now be under center for the AFC South-leading Texans as they chase their first playoff appearance in team history. Leinart’s last start was Week 12 of 2009. He threw for 220 yards, hitting 21 of 31 pass attempts with no touchdowns or interceptions.

Outside of Houston, this hurts the most for those that had Schaub on their fantasy teams. Schaub was off to a nice fantasy year, ranking 12^th overall in points thus far according to ESPN standard leagues.

Hopefully you have a suitable backup because Leinart is not likely to carry your team. Expect Houston to rely on its 5^th ranked rushing offense and game-managing from Leinart.

Like the Texans, your team is now in the hands of a backup as the season hits its final stretch.

The Fall of Chris Johnson

Stephen Garcia — Thu, 03 Nov 2011 23:13:14 +0000

Before the season, those that drafted Chris Johnson probably had dreams of playing for their fantasy championship. Unfortunately, the former 2,000 yard runner has been more of a nightmare thus far.

Johnson has been one of the most coveted fantasy players of the past two years. After breaking out with a 2,006 yard rushing season in 2009, many believed he was worthy of being selected first overall. Johnson followed up with 1,364 yards rushing with 12 total touchdowns in 2010. While to many he was no longer seen as the top running back, Johnson was still highly valued this year and was likely taken in the top five in your fantasy league. But to this point he has produced more like a fantasy backup.

Johnson missed a majority of training camp with a highly publicized holdout for a new contract. A new deal was finally reached worth $30 million in guaranteed money. While some figured that would be the end of Johnson drama, his play has brought more controversy. Through seven games, Johnson has just 302 rushing yards and a putrid 2.8 yards per carry average. He also has as many touchdowns as fumbles: one.

To put Johnson’s numbers in perspective, Saints running back Darren Sproles has three more rushing yards with 62 fewer carries. The Chiefs’ Jackie Battle has the same amount of rushing yards as Johnson with only one start this season.

Other players who have outrushed “CJ2K” thus far include Reggie Bush, James Starks, Delone Carter, and quarterback Cam Newton.

While Johnson owners were hoping he would shake off his slow start against a Colts rush defense that was giving up over 150 yards per game prior to Sunday, this was not the case. Johnson finished with 34 yards rushing and a 2.4 yards per carry average. He was even outrushed by Colts quarterback Curtis Painter, who had 79 yards himself.

Adding pressure to Johnson was the performance by backup running back Javon Ringer. Ringer had 60 rushing yards on the same number of carries as Johnson. If this continues, Ringer could start to challenge Johnson for more of the workload.

Don’t Rush to Pick Up Carson Palmer

Stephen Garcia — Sat, 22 Oct 2011 00:13:59 +0000

After an abbreviated “retirement,” Carson Palmer was traded to the Oakland Raiders Tuesday.

This news not only shook up the NFL world, but also created a rush to pick up the once elite quarterback. Palmer was one of the most added players in the league this week. His ownership rose 29 percent according to ESPN fantasy leagues. But will Palmer be able to make a significant fantasy impact?

In 2010, Palmer threw for 3,970 yards with 26 touchdowns and 20 interceptions on a struggling Bengals team. During the offseason, Palmer threatened retirement if he was not traded. Bengals owner Mike Brown declined to trade Palmer, beginning a new chapter for both Cincinnati and Palmer. The Bengals drafted Andy Dalton to be their new quarterback as Palmer began his retirement.

On Tuesday, Palmer was traded to Oakland for a 2012 first round pick and a 2013 conditional second round pick, which can become a first round pick if the Raiders reach the AFC championship game in either this season or next, according to NFL Network’s Michael Lombardi.

While Oakland has obviously put a lot of stock into Palmer, fantasy owners should not.

Palmer has been out of football since last season. That is a lot of missed practices and games. It will take him time just to adjust to the speed of the NFL again. Even then, Palmer tied a career high in interceptions last season.

He is not the player he once was and it will be difficult to master the playbook with such a late start. While Palmer could prove doubters wrong, I would wait until he actually hits the field before putting faith in him fantasy-wise.

Kenny Britt placed on IR, Who will step up?

Stephen Garcia — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 02:10:08 +0000

If you drafted Titans receiver Kenny Britt, chances are you were doing well in your fantasy league. That is, until Week 3.

Britt was placed on injured reserve this week with a torn ACL and MCL, ending both his season and his fantasy value. New quarterback Matt Hasselbeck seemed to form a nice connection with Britt. In the first two games of the year, Britt totaled 271 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He had three catches for 18 yards against the Broncos before the injury. Britt looked like a fantasy stud during his brief season, but now his teammates must pick up the slack.

Nate Washington now becomes the No. 1 receiver in Tennessee. While he has been overshadowed by Britt’s success, but he has put up solid numbers this season. Washington has 258 yards receiving this year, including 191 yards and one touchdown in the past two games.

Washington will now face more attention from opponents’ secondaries, but it is clear that Hasselbeck has no problem throwing his way.

The others in the receiving corp. are relatively unknown. Former USC Trojan Damian Williams will now start opposite of Washington. This is Williams’ second NFL season after being drafted by Tennessee in the third round.

Lavelle Hawkins, a fourth round pick, has 277 receiving yards in his four year career with no touchdowns. He will now be moved into the third receiver spot.

While Williams and Hawkins are not likely to be on a fantasy roster, Washington will fill in nicely for those looking to replace Britt. Washington will not put up Britt numbers, but as a No. 1 receiver he has fantasy value.

The injury to Britt may also open up opportunities for tight end Jared Cook. Many thought this could be Cook’s breakout season. Thus far, he has not lived up to those expectations, hauling in just five catches. The athletic tight end will likely see more targets with the loss of Britt.

A sleeper pick-up for later in the season could be receiver Donnie Avery. The Titans signed Avery this week after placing Britt on IR. Avery has blazing speed, something that will be missed with the absence of Britt. If Avery can pick up the playbook, he may have success in this offense.

Fantasy Football: Houston Texans RB Arian Foster’s Woes

Stephen Garcia — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 23:39:58 +0000

There is one word in fantasy that no one wants associated with their star player: injury.

Arian Foster owners have been all too familiar with this word lately. After racking up 1,616 yards on the ground and 604 receiving yards with 18 total touchdowns in 2010, people were wishing for the opportunity to snag him for their fantasy team.

Unfortunately, those who got their Foster wish granted have seen his name more often on the injury report than the stat sheet.

After injuring his hamstring in preseason practice, Foster has had question marks surrounding his health. Making matters worse, Foster re-aggravated his hamstring in the Texans’ third preseason game, just two weeks prior to the start of the regular season.

Foster missed the Texans’ season-opening win against the Colts, but returned to the starting lineup against the Dolphins in Week 2. However, Foster’s highly anticipated return was brief. Foster rushed for 33 yards and caught two passes for seven yards before sitting out the second half with the same hamstring complaint.

Foster did not practice Wednesday and his status is certainly questionable.

Foster owners looking for a replacement should try and pick up fellow Texan running back Ben Tate. Originally third on the depth chart, Tate has made the most of his opportunities this season. With injuries to both Foster and Derrick Ward, Tate has rushed for 219 yards — good for third in the NFL in this young season.

Are the Bengals the Worst Fantasy Football Team?

Stephen Garcia — Wed, 21 Sep 2011 23:27:58 +0000

Sept. 8 marked the beginning of two things: the NFL season and fantasy football.

While fantasy football success does not always translate to wins for NFL teams, it means there is productivity on offense. Unfortunately for the Bengals this year, it looks like they will struggle in both areas.

The Bengals may have the least fantasy options of any team in the league. With the apparent retirement of Carson Palmer, Cincinnati turned to rookie Andy Dalton, a second round pick from TCU. Like most rookie quarterbacks, Dalton will struggle as he adjusts to the NFL. In two games so far in 2011, Dalton has passed for 413 yards and three touchdowns. Unless your league requires two starting quarterbacks, avoid even giving Dalton a spot on your roster.

Dalton also has a huge impact on the Bengals’ other offensive weapons. Because of his inexperience, no receivers have much value. Although Jerome Simpson is listed as their No. 1 receiver, rookie A.J. Green looks like the best option. Even so, do not expect Green to put up great numbers.

Green has 11 receptions for 165 yards and two touchdowns this season. He would make for good fantasy depth, but Dalton is likely to throw more interceptions than touchdowns.

Running back Cedric Benson will also suffer because of Dalton. Expect teams to focus on stopping the run with the rookie Dalton under center. Benson could be facing eight players in the box almost every down. Add the fact that Cincinnati is in a division with two of the best run defenses in the league in Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and it is a recipe for disaster.

But because of the great value of starting running backs in fantasy, Benson is worth a look as he’s rushed for 180 yards and a touchdown in Cincinnati’s first two games.

Michael Vick’s Fantasy Value

Corey Burns — Tue, 23 Aug 2011 00:49:17 +0000

Michael Vick is coming off a tremendous fantasy season in 2010, but where should he be drafted in 2011, and why?

Vick is coming off a year with over 3,000 passing yards, 676 rushing yards, and 30 total touchdowns in 12 games. Despite the numbers and the “wow” factor Vick possesses, there is absolutely no way that he should be the number one overall pick in any league, not even the first quarterback drafted.

Don’t get it wrong, Vick is and should be highly ranked on everyone’s draft board, but the fact of the matter is there are more proven and durable quarterback’s in the league. In a two QB league, Vick’s value is better. Draft him as a number 1 or 2 QB and pair him with another reliable QB. If he lives up to the hype it should guarantee a trip to the playoffs. However, in a one QB league I would stay away from him, let him fall to some sucker who can’t get enough Vick; let him deal with the problems Vick will cause for his team that he has built solely around him.

Vick has the ability to make or break one’s season. Let’s go over the positives: his mobility is key and making defenders miss comes naturally to him. He’s got a cannon for an arm with a serious deep threat in DeSean Jackson down the sideline. Third, he is coming off a season where he looked phenomenal as a pocket passer, which is way different from year’s prior. However, his style of play makes him extremely vulnerable to injury and mistakes. Last year Vick had 11 fumbles in 12 games, which was near the top of the league for all quarterbacks, and sat atop the list of proven ones. He did only have six interceptions in those 12 games but I would look for that number to increase this season. Also, a final factor in this is the huge off-season the Eagles have had, whether it was the trades or free agent acquisitions, the bulls-eye on their back has become enormous, thanks to Vince Young’s “Eagles are a dream team” quote.

There’s pro’s and con’s for every quarterback in the league, but the pressure and build up to the 2011 season for the Eagles is going to be too much for Vick. There are four quarterback’s I’d take over Vick:

Aaron Rodgers – Had 28 passing TD’s with rushing 4 TD’s. Got Jermichael Finley back, has crushed it consistently for two straight years.

Drew Brees - Always a stud in fantasy, even if you don’t like him he always puts up numbers. 33 touchdowns a year ago, had a lot of interceptions, (22) but look for that to go down.

Philip Rivers – Almost 5,000 yards passing last year with 30 TD’s, has Vincent Jackson back with Malcom Floyd and one of the best tight ends in the leagu in Antonio Gates.

Tom Brady – 36 TD’s to ONLY 4 interceptions, 3,900 yards a year ago. Brought in Ochocinco to go with Wes Welker and the tight ends.

Chris Johnson: Worth the Risk?

zach — Sat, 20 Aug 2011 16:59:14 +0000

What a difference a year makes. Last year Chris Johnson was the golden boy of every fantasy draft, number one on almost everyone’s board. Whoever was able to land him first was ecstatic, knowing they were going to have a guy who would score at least 15 points per game, with the potential for much more. And why wouldn’t they expect this? Johnson was coming off a season in which he broke the NFL record for all-purpose yards and recorded the 6th 2,000-yard rushing season in NFL history. But Johnson’s 2010 campaign was not quite up the incredibly high standards his fantasy owners had set after his historical 2009 campaign.

Johnson’s 2010 Season

Though he wound up with over 1300 yards and 11 touchdowns, his yards per carry went down from 5.6 to 4.3. While he had several big games, unlike the year before he also had many mediocre ones, having games of just 5 (yes that’s five yards), 39, 34, 58, 53, 59, and 66 yards. In those 7 games he recorded a grand total of two touchdowns. For a fantasy owner getting no production out of your number one overall pick in almost half of his games can be crippling to a team.

Reason for Decline

One reason for this decline in production could be a less effective team. The Titans had instability and inconsistency from the quarterback position all season. This combined with the fact that teams were now game planning solely on stopping Chris Johnson when the Titans were on offense may have caused Johnson’s decline in production.

Chris Johnson in 2011

As the 2011 season approaches Chris Johnson is currently holding out for a new contract. Once he gets what he wants he will return to a team with a new look at quarterback after the signing of veteran Matt Hasselbeck and the drafting of Jake Locker in the first round. However Locker is not NFL ready and Hasselbeck is coming off a down year, and both come to an offense that still lacks a big receiving threat.

But the big questions surrounding Johnson are: when will he get back, and how long will it take for him to get up to speed? Because of the lockout players haven’t practiced for as long and as a result we are seeing a higher prevalence of injuries. While Johnson has likely trained on his own this off-season, there is a big difference between training with and without pads and contact. So when he does come back most likely he will have a limited role on the offense to start, and could be more susceptible to injury. Once he gets over this start he will most likely play at the same level he played in 2010, some great games some not so great. Because until Tennessee upgrades its other skill positions on offense, Chris Johnson will be the number one target of every team they play.

What’s Wrong with Ichiro?

Bryan Curley — Fri, 22 Jul 2011 22:35:50 +0000

Back in spring training, a buddy of mine asked me whether I thought Ichiro Suzuki would have another 200-hit season. I paused before responding, but only because I couldn’t think of the best way to explain what I expected out of Ichiro this year. My response was: “Does a bear crap in the woods?” (Note: I used a different word in place of “crap” but this is a respectable blog. Kids could be reading this stuff.)

Well, apparently there are a lot of constipated bears this season.

After posting 10 straight 200-hit seasons to start his major league career, it finally appears age has caught up with the best player Japan has ever produced. From 2001 through 2010, Ichiro compiled 2,244 hits (a career .331 average) and never batted below .303 in any single season. He was the game’s most prototypical and potent leadoff hitter, scoring 100-plus runs in each of his first eight seasons before Seattle’s offense became weaker than a Scotch and water, hold the Scotch.

Now, Ichiro is sitting at just 104 hits and a .260 average through nearly four months of the 2011 season. If he’s to get back to his usual .300-plus self, he’ll need to get 96 hits in his next 280 at-bats, which would bring him to his typical season-ending total of 680 at-bats. That would be a blistering .343 pace from here on out.

While it’s certainly possible, it’s not likely to happen. Either way, how do we explain Ichiro’s rapid decline? The answer lies in his batted ball data.

Batting Average on Balls in Play

Ichiro is famous for his ability to make contact and quickly get down the first base line with a swing that takes him out of the box just as he’s making contact. According to Fangraphs, there are 551 batters that have registered at least 1,000 plate appearances since the start of Ichiro’s career, and only one (Shin-Soo Choo) has a higher career batting average on balls in play than Ichiro’s .357 mark. Once the ball is put in play, there’s (almost) no one more likely to get on base than Ichiro.

But that’s not been the case this season. In 2011 Ichiro’s BABIP is a Bengie Molina-esque .282 versus that career .357 mark. For those who don’t know much about BABIP, it’s a highly luck-dependent statistic. If you’re hitting balls right at fielders, your BABIP is going to lower because your ball placement has been unlucky. Because of his great speed, Ichiro is able to neutralize this to an extent, only once finishing a season with a BABIP under .333 (.316 back in 2005).

What gives?!

Batting Average on Ground Balls

(These headings really take away the suspense, huh?)

Again, because of his great speed, Ichiro is able to beat out a lot more ground balls for hits. Of those 551 players who stepped to the plate at least 1,000 times since 2001, only Joey Gathright gives Ichiro a run for his money in this category (pun completely intended) as both players have infield hit rates of 13.0 percent. The next closest player is Jason Bay at 11.7 percent.

In fact, for his entire career, Ichiro has posted a .300 average on all ground balls he hits whereas the average major league player with average speed checks in at around .250. This year Ichiro has just a .232 average on ground balls. Considering that ground balls make up 60.3 percent of all balls Ichiro has put into play this season, this 68-point drop is astronomical. If Ichiro was posting his typical .300 average on ground balls this year, his .260 overall average would instead be .313, a completely reasonable (and expected) number.

Can we expect Ichiro to get back to being the Ichiro of old?

Ichiro’s Remaining 2011 Outlook

One of my favorite advanced stats is speed score. It has a crazy equation that’s not really worth explaining, but essentially it yields a single number that we can use to quantify how fast a player is. There’s not a ton of credibility to the stat and very few places reference it for this reason, but I think it gives a quick, handy, on-the-surface way of look at a player’s speed.

For his career, Ichiro’s speed score is 6.6. Back when he was younger (he’s 37 now), Ichiro was regularly posting speed scores in excess of 7.0. Over the last three seasons his average speed score is 5.5.

So, Ichiro is older than he used to be (duh) and he’s not as fast as he used to be (makes sense), so it would be unreasonable for us to expect him to continue to put up numbers like his .357 career BABIP or .300 career batting average on ground balls, but the respective .282 and .232 marks we’ve seen this year are too low to be considered the new norm. Even if Ichiro only managed a .275 batting average on ground balls from here on out (he’s older and slower, after all) that still works out to a .283 average for the remainder of the season. For what it’s worth, Ichiro batted .282 in June before tanking to start July.

In short, Ichiro’s not the 200-hit guarantee he’s been in years past, but he’s better than the player we’ve seen in 2011 and he’ll definitely improve over the season’s final two months if Lady Luck has anything to say about it.

Give Up on Adam Dunn, But Give These Three Players a Shot

Bryan Curley — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 01:53:03 +0000

In sports, championships are won on the field and not on paper. If the names in the program were all that mattered then the St. Louis Rams would have won the 2001 Super Bowl, the New England Patriots would have shut Mercury Morris up with a 19-0 season and Vancouver might still be in one piece.

However, as much as Lebron James would prefer we skipped the games and just jumped to the awards ceremonies, we play the games because the games rarely unfold as expected.

Adam Dunn hit exactly 40 home runs each year from 2005 to 2008 and then slugged 38 more in both 2009 and 2010. He has just nine this year. Ichiro Suzuki has never batted less than .303 in any of his 10 seasons in America, but he was batting just .267 at the All-Star Break. Heck, the Pittsburgh Pirates, perennial losers who have spent more time in the cellar than a fine wine or a redneck lovechild, are challenging for the NL Central lead and a potential playoff birth.

Anything can happen, so just because these three players have been scuffling for the majority of 2011 doesn’t mean you should cast them aside and keep running Ryan Roberts (.257, 11 HR, 13 SB) and Kyle Lohse (8-6, 3.32 ERA) out there each and every week. It’s time to cut bait with the over-performers and get these guys before they’re unattainable.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS

Most fantasy managers are afraid to cut ties with a big name player like Zimmerman out of fear of getting swindled. Given the state of third base this season (shallower than a kiddie pool) it’s unlikely that a player of Zimmerman’s caliber will be highly available in most leagues, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t worth casting out a line and seeing if the other manager nibbles.

Zimmerman is batting just .254 with four homers and 15 RBI in 34 games this year, but his 1.35 strikeout-to-walk ratio would be a new career best and his power (as represented by HR/FB rate) is only slightly below where we’d expect it to be. He’s batting .279 in July with an .812 OPS (career .835) and doesn’t look far off the Zimmerman of old.

Angel Pagan, OF, NYM

There’s a pretty good chance you can pick up Pagan for free as he’s owned in just 56 percent of Yahoo leagues, but even if someone already has him rostered it shouldn’t cost you too much to trade for him. Pagan finished 2010 as the 20th ranked outfielder, making him extremely valuable in even the shallowest of leagues, but a terrible start to 2011 has him buried in the rankings.

Thankfully, we began seeing the 2010 version of Pagan in June as the Mets outfielder batted .300 with one homer, 16 RBI, 16 runs scored and seven steals that month. Since he’s a speed-based player, his success comes when he’s not striking out while minimizing the amount of fly balls he hits. When Pagan batted .159 in April he was striking out 11.0 percent of the time while hitting 51.7 percent of his balls in the air. When he batted .300 in June he was striking out 8.6 percent of the time while hitting just 34.2 percent of his balls in the air. Get him before he gets to 20 steals and his perceived value increases as a result of hitting that benchmark.

Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, COL

Jimenez raced out of the gates in 2010 only to slow off considerably in the second half. This year the opposite has been true. After starting the season 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA through the season’s first two months, Jimenez has been a completely different pitcher. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last nine starts and has walked more than two batters just once over that same span. In his nine starts in April and May, Jimenez allowed more than three earned runs five times and walked more than two batters five times.

What’s been behind this stunning turnaround? Jimenez’s walk rate is way down and his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio is way up. Jimenez has always been a ground ball pitcher, and having Coors Field as a home ballpark makes this even more crucial.

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is a nice indicator of how well a pitcher has actually been pitching because it normalizes for everything pitchers can’t control, basically removing luck from the ERA equation. This season Jimenez’s FIPs have decreased every month from 5.53 In April to 3.63 in May, 3.04 in June and 2.02 in July. Jimenez is back, but judging by his 5-8 record, 4.08 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, your opponent might not know it yet.