To conclude our series of Awards for the year that was, we bring you what the SoB staff voted as the top game of 2010. Ironically, the Patriots-Jets rematch in Week 13, a 45-3 beatdown of the Jets in Foxboro, tops the list. This is ironic, of course, considering the Jets returned the favor, crushing the New England spirit with a 28-21 trouncing in the playoffs one day ago.

But, rules are rules, and despite the bad timing, we must go on. If you even want to remember that game, it came after another week of (less-intense) trash-talking. The Patriots wanted to kill the Jets, and they did. That game was an example of what happens if the Patriots are playing at their best and the Jets are playing at their worst.

Tom Brady finished with 326 yards and four touchdowns in that game. Mark Sanchez, meanwhile, three three interceptions in a horrible effort. Boy, how times have changed less than a couple months later.

Testimonials

There’s nothing better than sticking it to an arch rival. This was the game that really put the wheels in motion for the Patriots to surge ahead in the AFC East, and the AFC in general. Tom Brady threw for 346 yards, four TDs, and zero picks. The Law Firm of BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushed for 72 yards and two scores. And so many excellent receivers. The game was so good and set the AFC wheels in motion so much that the whiny Jets started nagging about running up the score, which is legal, by the way. – John

Bill Belichick proved that when it comes to football, he is still the best in the game. Billed as the game of the millennium, what Patriots fans got instead was a beatdown for the ages. The Jets never had a chance in this game, and they were made to look stupid and amateurish over and over again. The Jets tried to steal hype with their goofy coach, role-model quarterback and ridiculous reality show, but the Patriots proved that talent and teamwork accomplish far more than glitz and glamor ever could. – Matt G.

Runner-Up: Lakers-Celtics in the NBA Finals, Game 7

© KC Downey for Sports of Boston, 2011. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Now!.

If you’re a fan of fine defense, you will enjoy this infield unit in 2010. A quick recap of what went down this offseason:

• Adrian Beltre replaces an old, worn-down Mike Lowell at third base.
• Kevin Youkilis moves permanently to first base where he is a gold-glove caliber player.
• Marco Scutaro replaces a two-year hodgepodge of shortstops.
• David Ortiz remains the DH!

OK, so that last one doesn’t really make a difference, but this infield unit could be regarded as the best in the AL if not in all of baseball. While the offense is nothing to gawk at, it is still solid and with a full year of Victor Martinez in the lineup, it should be good enough, especially with the upgrade in starting pitching and defense. Let’s take a look at the positions and see how this year’s team shapes up.

Catcher: Victor Martinez

Red Sox fans have been forced to watch Jason Varitek struggle to the tune of a .215/.313/.374 line over the last two seasons, so a full season of Victor Martinez in the lineup will do wonders for the offense. After being traded to Boston, Martinez batted .336 and hit eight home runs in 56 games. Moving from a sub-.220 batting average to a .300+ one is not a small upgrade and it will show as Martinez cements himself as the No. 3 hitter in the lineup behind Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury or Marco Scutaro.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis

There’s nothing different at this position as Youkilis, who played 78 games at first base last season, will start the majority of games there this year. At this point, we know exactly what Youkilis brings to the table, and that’s a .300 batting average with 28 home runs and 100 RBI. Where the real difference will be is on defense because Youkilis is a much better defensively at first base than third base.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia

Much like first base, this position is rock solid with Dustin Pedroia, who is just one year removed from an MVP season. In that season he hit .326 with 17 home runs, 118 runs and 20 steals and there is no reason to think he can’t duplicate those numbers again. Last year, Pedroia faced a lot of off-field issues with his family, which definitely bothered him at the plate. Along with very solid offensive numbers, Pedroia brings gold-glove caliber defense to the position.

Shortstop: Marco Scutaro

The Red Sox went out and signed arguably the best free agent shortstop on the market in Marco Scutaro. Sure he isn’t a top 10 player at his position, but for what the Red Sox need him to do he will work just fine. Most likely, Scutaro will bat leadoff or at the bottom of the order and will be required to get on base, which he did at a .379 pace last season. Over the last four years, Scutaro has hit for a .270 batting average and compiled a .354 on-base percentage. He also walked a career-high 90 times last season and if he can return just a fraction of that production, the Red Sox will be better off.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre

A lot has been said about the Adrian Beltre signing this offseason, but the bottom line is that the deal is about as perfect as it can get for the two parties involved. Last year, Beltre was hampered by a shoulder issue and failed to reach 20 home runs for the first time since 2005. Fenway Park should be more friendly to Beltre than Safeco Field so you can expect a small spike in his offensive numbers. Then again, he’s going to be batting seventh or eighth in the order, so I would even take his Safeco numbers.

© George for Sports of Boston, 2010. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Opinion, Red Sox, Top Story.

David Ortiz’s cliff dive through March, April, and May of the 2009 season hit Red Sox fans like a death in the family. Ortiz became a real life Pedro Cerrano, only, he didn’t just look bad on breaking balls, he whiffed on everything. And sadly, the Nation’s offerings of cigars and rum to Jobu didn’t help.

In that “I can’t watch!” 46-game span, Ortiz hit .183 with a .284 on base percentage, 18 RBIs, and a single home run. One. The man who, in his prime, averaged a home run every 10 at bats, managed a single round-tripper in 178 ABs.

Even when Ortiz started to hit, his stats for the rest of the season were nowhere near Big Papi averages. In his final 363 at bats, Ortiz hit .264 with a .356 OBP. The 27 home runs and 81 RBI were nice, but against left handed pitching, Ortiz was positively Grebeck-esque, batting .212 with an on-base percentage of .298, 6 HR and 44 strike outs in 188 at bats.

So what can we expect from Big Papi in 2010? Now that Jason Bay and his team-leading 36 home runs are in Queens, it’s a question that takes on greater weight.

Statistical evidence provides the somewhat cold answer: there is no more Big Papi.

The fourth best slugger to ever don Red Sox (see the chart at the bottom of this article), the team’s benevolent run producing juggernaut and indomitable October darling is now simply David Ortiz.

Pressure?

Various outlets, including the Herald and NESN, have already declared the pressure is firmly on Ortiz in 2010 to magically morph into his 2003 to 2007 self and carry the Sox lineup as its only remaining game-changing power hitter.

Nonsense.

Here are the facts:

1. Ortiz is now the team’s No. 5 hitter. And that’s a good thing. It’s a spot where he performed admirably last season after being dropped from his five-season lock on the three hole: .275 AVG, .355 OBP, .924 OPS, 16 HR, 43 RBI in 204 at bats.
2. Ortiz will often take a seat against south paws, and given his age, the maximum number of at bats we can reasonably expect him to take in 2010 is 500.
3. Ortiz hasn’t been Big Papi since 2007.

You’ll recall 2008 was the season Ortiz missed over 40 games due to a wrist injury that he tried to play through but which eventually required surgery. In baseball, wrist injuries are to hitters what shoulder injuries are to pitchers. Just ask Nomar Garciaparra. Post-injury Ortiz simply hasn’t had the bat speed or power of Big Papi.

The evidence lies in his performance in 2008 and after his Tim Burton-bizarre 46-game start to 2009. The stats, viewed together speak for themselves:

• 2008: 416 AB, .264 AVG, .369 OBP, .507 SLG, .877 OPS, 23 HR, 89 RBI
• 2009: 363 AB, .264 AVG, .356 OBP, .554 SLG, .910 OPS, 27 HR, 81 RBI

Statistical godfather Bill James agrees, projecting Ortiz to post this line in 2010:

.264 AVG, .369 OBP, .519 SLG, .877 OPS, 29 HR and 99 RBI in 484 at bats

So what should Sox fans expect from Big Papi in 2010? There is no more Big Papi, but we can expect a very productive season from number-five hitter David Ortiz.

But…

There is no bigger carrot for a baseball player than a contract season. New Red Sox third baseman Adrian Beltre embodies this axiom better than any player in MLB history.

In his first five seasons with the Dodgers, less his 77-game rookie season, Beltre posted this average line:

.265 AVG, .323 OBP, .432 SLG, .755 OPS, 18 HR, 73 RBI

Not a bad line, but certainly not one that would make GMs scramble for their check books. Then came Beltre’s 2004 contract season, and these eye-popping numbers:

.334 AVG, .388 OBP, .629 SLG, 1.017 OPS, 48 HR, 121 RBI

Beltre finished second to Barry Bonds in MVP voting, topping Albert Pujols, and won the Silver Slugger award for third basemen. His contract season performance won him a five-year, $65 million contract with Seattle—five years in which Beltre posted this line:

.266 AVG, .317 OBP, .442 SLG, .759 OPS, 21 HR, 79 RBI

Looks familiar, doesn’t it? Those numbers are nearly identical to Beltre’s averages before his contract season.

More recently and closer to home, goatee-artist Mike Lowell was the proud owner of these lifetime averages going into his 2007 contract season:

.275 AVG, .341 OBP, .467 SLG, .808 OPS, 22 HR, 87 RBI

Below, we see Lowell’s contract-winning 2007 stats paired with his combined averages in 2008 and 2009:

• 2007: .324 AVG, .378 OBP, .501 SLG, .879 OPS, 21 HR, 120 RBI
• 2008/09: .282 AVG, .337 OBP, .468 SLG, .805 OPS, 17 HR, 74 RBI

Ahh, those old familiar numbers again. The point of this exercise? In 2010, David Ortiz will be playing for a contract. The Red Sox hold a $12.5 million team option on the aging slugger for 2011. The only way Theo even remotely considers picking up that option is if Ortiz goes back to posting Big Papi numbers.

The Red Sox are dangling the carrot, and according to reports, Ortiz wants it badly. Jon Tomase at the Herald had this to say in a recent column:

“Those who have seen him in the Dominican Republic this winter say he looks like a new man, leaner and about 10 pounds lighter. That’s because the Red Sox made it clear to Ortiz before he left for the winter that he needed to rededicate himself to conditioning.”

Does this mean we should expect Ortiz to reach his .301/.402/.612 peak averages? Sadly, no. Ortiz is still 34 years old, he’s still a slugger who suffered a wrist injury, and it’s highly unlikely his inability to hit south paws in 2010 was a one-season fluke.

However, in the five hole, on the bench against lefties, in better physical shape than he has been in years, and playing for a $12.5 million payday, Ortiz could very well outperform projections. Thus, Bill James’ projections paired with determined, in-shape, wisely utilized Ortiz projections:

• .264 AVG, .369 OBP, .519 SLG, .877 OPS, 29 HR and 99 RBI in 484 at bats
• .282 AVG, .385 OBP, .522 SLG, .907 OPS, 34 HR and 111 RBI in 500 at bats

Those aren’t Big Papi numbers (like the man who was one of the greatest sluggers in team history), but Sox fans would be thrilled to see that production out of David Ortiz in 2010.

The Four Greatest Red Sox Sluggers in Their Five Best Seasons:

© Sharkey for Sports of Boston, 2010. | Permalink | 2 comments
Filed under: Featured, Red Sox, Top Story.