It was refreshing to hear Wes Welker discussion and not have it be about whether or not he should have caught that Brady pass in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl. Monday, as was speculated, Wes Welker was given the franchise tag by the New England Patriots. The Patriots waited until the final hours before officially placing the tag on Welker, which created some drama considering this was a team that once traded Richard Seymour a week before the start of the NFL season.

First, the facts: Welker can sign the franchise tender at any time prior to the start of the season and he will be guaranteed $9.4 million for the upcoming season. That salary figure is based on the top five average salaries of the highest paid wide receivers in the NFL. The figure does not take into consideration signing bonuses paid to the top five players. Welker can once again become a free agent at the end of next season and the Patriots have the option of placing the franchise tag on him again.

So, let’s examine this from the perspective of Wes Welker, the Patriots and how it plays with the media and fans.

Wes Welker

Without direct comment from Welker, we can only speculate what he’s thinking, but it’s likely he would much rather have a new contract in front of him than the one-year franchise tender. Since being acquired from the Miami Dolphins prior to the 2007 season, Welker has been one of the most prolific receivers in the game. In the last five years with the Patriots, his 554 receptions rank first in the NFL. He is fourth in receiving yards with over 6,100, 1st in yards after the catch with 3,220, and 18th in the league in touchdowns with 18.

He has been Brady’s go-to guy in all situations and remarkably, after tearing his ACL in the season finale in 2009, did not miss a game to start the following season. He has far outperformed his previous contract and whether you think he’s a slot receiver or not, the numbers don’t lie. Welker’s agent David Dunn surely presented the Patriots with those numbers, but the most the Patriots were willing to commit to, according to reports, was two years guaranteed at $8 million per year.

Welker’s Options

Welker now has a few options at his disposal, with none of them ideal.

He can sign the tender and play under a one-year guaranteed contract and become a free agent again next season. The Patriots could once again franchise him, but Welker’s franchise number would rise 20% (close to $13 million). So it’s either a two-year guaranteed deal at $22 million or free agency if Welker can remain healthy.

Welker could hold out, and force the Patriots to offer him a long-term deal. Or Welker could sign the tender if the Patriot guarantee him they will not franchise him after next season. They averted a holdout with Asante Samuel in 2007 by offering him the same deal. It’s a gamble for a guy who is going to turn 31 on May 1st.

Finally, Welker could wait and see what the Patriots do in free agency and continue to negotiate for a long-term deal. The caveat is that both sides need to agree on a multi-year deal by July 15th.

The New England Patriots

The Patriots said all the right things Monday in their press release about the tagging of Welker. They mentioned how the tag allowed them more time to negotiate and hopefully Wes would be a Patriot for a long time. Time will tell if that’s lip service by the Patriots or sincerity.

People have called tagging Welker a no-brainer for the Patriots. Of the 32 teams in the NFL, 21 of them used the franchise tag on various players. This is an interesting time for many NFL teams. There are some teams with a lot of money to spend like the St. Louis Rams. There are teams such as the Patriots in the middle of pack in salary cap space, and there are teams like the Steelers, who are being forced to trim salary just to get under the cap.

The lockout has once again produced a strong crop of free agents who will be on the market in a week. The new National TV contracts do not kick until the 2014 season so the cap will stay pretty consistent the next two seasons.

The Need for Welker

The Patriots and Welker have not been really close to a deal all season according to reports. The Patriots offer of two years and $16 million is far below what Welker could earn on the open market. Welker is twice the receiver Santonio Holmes is, and Holmes is earning $10 million a year with the Jets.

As great as the Patriot offense has been the last two seasons, they once again showed they do not have a receiver that can get outside the numbers. Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski and Welker are not explosive downfield threats like Vincent Jackson, Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Not having this weapon allowed the Ravens and Giants to play up and tight on their receivers, and the result for the Patriots was an inability to create plays down the field.

The two clearest examples of this were Brady interceptions to Matthew Slater and Rob Gronkowski, who could not create separation on downfield throws. Chad Ochocinco was supposed to be that receiver, and he was a complete disaster.

Other Franchise Tags Around the NFL

The Patriots have glaring needs at outside receiver, defensive end and in the secondary. Monday, some intriguing players who could have helped the Patriots were also franchised or re-signed. Cross off your Christmas list safeties Dashon Goldson (49’ers), Tyvon Branch (Raiders) and Michael Griffin (Titans), linebackers Anthony Spencer (Cowboys) and Ahmad Brooks (49’ers re-signed), and defensive ends Cliff Avril (Lions) and Kroy Biermann (Falcons resigned ).

The free agent pool is still deep with big ticket but expensive defensive game changers Mario Williams (DE Texans) and Cortland Finnegan (CB Titans). As well as explosive offensive wide outs like Vincent Jackson (Chargers) and Brandon Lloyd (Rams). One note about Lloyd, he played for Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in Denver and in St. Louis, and he’s been linked with the Patriots for the past month. Don’t get your hopes up; he’s going to take the best deal.

What the Welker tag has done at the very least is guaranteed the Patriots the same offensive personnel as last season. They can’t stop with the Welker franchise tag. They can either spend on the defensive side of the ball or draft a wide receiver in the first round to stretch the field. If they do pair a Lloyd or Jackson with Welker, it would give Tom Brady one of the best offensive arsenals in the league. The only problem could be the fallout in the locker room if the Patriots offer a multi-year deal to a receiver and leave Welker on the one-year franchise tender. That could get ugly.

Another option is that the Patriots make no big splash in free agency. Let’s face it, when they have gone all in it hasn’t worked as well, so don’t be surprised if the Patriots do not land one or two of the top 20 free agents appearing on lists all across the internet.

The Media and Fan Reaction

The Patriots fan is always heavily biased toward the team. In this case, agreeing with the franchise tender is not being a “fanboy.” Welker takes a beating as a receiver, is not a game-breaker and can be taken out by bigger, physical defenses. He is 31, and has already had one major knee injury. The Patriots have several holes to fill and they need to fill them quicklybecause Tom Brady isn’t getting any younger. The AFC is wide open, and a player here or there can make all the difference and after free agency, the Patriots can always restructure a couple contracts to get Welker a multi-year deal.

Most of the local media is pretty sensible on this issue. Michael Felger, right on cue speaking on his radio show Monday, harped on the point that Welker has been a good soldier and deserved a multi-year contract. Felger is a salary cap denier, so you just can’t talk reason with him. Tony Massarotti spoke on what little leverage Welker had because he did not hold out last season. I haven’t read any comments from Ron Borges or Chris Gasper, but most likely they will try to take the opposite stance of the majority of the media, whether that stance is accurate or not. I expect with Borges more diatribes about how the Patriots took advantage of Welker and are always looking for a bargain etc.

Final Thoughts

Welker remaining with the Patriots for the 2012-2013 season was scenario #1 in my blueprint to New Orleans. Goldson, Branch and Griffin were three players I thought the Patriot should target on defense because of the glaring need at the Safety position. The Patriots can now explore corner options like Cortland Finnegan and Carlos Rogers (Redskins). There are also some pretty good pass rushers who could be had for relatively short-term deals and respectable money. I am talking about Jon Abraham (Falcons), Jeremy Mincey (Jaguars) and Patriot free agents Andre Carter and Mark Anderson.

NFL Free agency begins in a week. Unlike Major League Baseball, the NFL dominoes start falling within the first 48 hours. Patriots fans looking to put the Super Bowl behind them are hoping for a big splash.

© gcain for Sports of Boston, 2012. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Patriots, Top Story.

Tennessee Titans (0-5) at New England Patriots (3-2)

Time: 4:15 EST
Where: Gillettle Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts
TV: CBS
Radio: 98.5 FM – The Sports Hub

The Patriots are coming off a disappointing loss to the Broncos. Currently, New England is sitting even in the AFC East with the New York Jets with a 3-2 record. Every week, the Pats have seen an unbeaten team, but now they are looking at a different scenario. For the first time this season, New England will face a winless opponent in the highly disappointing Tennessee Titans.

Meet the Titans

Last season they were the talk of the town. Coming out of nowhere, the Titans were the top team in the NFL with a 13-3 record, including starting the season on a ten-game winning streak. Everything was going fine, until they lost to the Ravens in their first playoff game. Since then, Jeff Fisher’s team has struggled out of the gates and has lost its winning ways.

Kerry Collins is the de-facto leader of the offense. Last season was one of the finest in his fifteen season, earning him his second Pro Bowl appearance. However, it’s not smooth sailing in Tennessee anymore. Collins is second in the league in interceptions, behind only Jake Delhomme, and he has one of the worst passer ratings in the league. The Titans offense comes from it’s running game. What was supposed to be a one-two punch has turned into an uneven attack. Chris Johnson does it all, including a 197-yard rushing game against Houston, which featured a 91-yard rush. He is one of the best runners in the league and is already just shy of 500 rushing yards. However, all the offseason talk was on LenDale White, who was supposed to be in the best shape of his life following his no-tequila diet. However, he has yet to show any of the running back we saw last season, which puts all the pressure on Johnson’s shoulder.

When Albert Haynesworth left for Washington, everyone thought the Titans defense would be hurting, but no one expected this. Tennessee’s defense ranks towards the bottom, giving up 363 yards a game. Stephen Tulloch and Keith Bulluck have kept the linebacking unit stable, but the defensive line and especially the secondary have been struggling. Several wide receivers, including Houston’s Andre Johnson and Jacksonville’s Mike Sims-Walker, have made big plays and burned the secondary. Considering that the secondary will be without Cortland Finnegan and Nick Harper this week, it is just another Titans weakness that can be exploited. The Titans need their former Pro Bowlers Kyle Vanden Bosch and Javon Kearse and fellow linemen Tony Brown and Jason Jones to get going and take pressure off the secondary, for the Titans to have a shot at their first win.

Five Things The Patriots Have To Do:

Simple: Go Deep, Go Often

New England has not had a pass over 40 yards this season. Tennessee has allowed those long passes and ranks 31st in the league against the pass. All those signs point to one thing: go deep. With Nick Harper and Cortland Finnegan out for the Titans, this is the perfect opportunity for Randy Moss to add to his touchdown total on the season (he has just 1 TD). With a stellar linebacking unit, Wes Welker’s slot receiving role might be reduced and instead look for New England to finally let loose and go deep.

Of course, that only goes as far as Tom Brady is willing. Everything was expected to be fine since his return, but in five games this season, Brady has a season-best completion of 36 yards. Going deep might be a good strategy, but consistency is more important. Brady was 5-14 in the second half against Denver last week. If he has too many misses, the Patriots offense won’t have enough time to do anything productive.

Stop Johnson at All Costs

There’s no secret to the Titans offensive success this season, Chris Johnson. His 197 rushing yards again Houston were spectacular, but considering that Tennessee still lost the game, it shows where this team stands. He has the ability to stop and go at any pace, and the speed to burn any one in the NFL. If you can not stop him at the line, then he will tear you up for big yardage.

That is why the defensive plays an important role this week, especially the linebackers. It was nice for New England fans to see Jerod May return last week. His six tackles were a great sign of recovery from someone who had an MCL injury just a few weeks ago. Another great sign will be the return of Junior Seau. Even if he doesn’t suit up, his role on the sideline might be enough to mentor men like Gary Guyton to step up and play harder. Johnson’s running lanes need to be plugged by Mayo, Guyton, Adalius Thomas and Pierre Woods, or else they will be seeing a lot of Johnson’s backside while he runs towards the end-zone.

Get to Collins

Although the Patriots only have ten sacks on the season, tied for 14th, they are good at getting pressure on the quarterbacks. However, when they sit back and relax, things get bad. Denver’s Kyle Orton was able to crush the Patriots last week, going 35 for 48 for 330 yards. Do not expect a repeat this week. Pressure on Kerry Collins usually causes the quarterback to make costly mistakes. The Titans offensive line can be beat and Ty Warren, Vince Wilfork, Mike Wright and Tully Banta-Cain need to keep the pressure coming to cause some guaranteed Collins’ errors.

However, those mistakes need to be capitalized on, and that’s where the secondary comes into play. Most of the Patriots top tacklers are from the secondary. Brandon Meriweather, Brandon McGowan, Shawn Springs, Leigh Bodden and James Sanders are all in the top nine for tackles on the season. However, their two interceptions are tied for a league worst. Last week, the Patriots handed Kyle Orton his only interception on the season, but it was caught by Randy Moss on a hail mary play at the end of the first half. It’s nice that New England secondary ties receivers up, but every now and then, those receivers break away for big plays, ala Brandon Marshall last week. Should Collins throw one up for grabs, it needs to be the Patriots secondary coming down with the errant pass.

Keep the Running Game Running

He might have not played last week, but Fred Taylor is still the Patriots leading rusher with 201 yards. In his absence, Sammy Morris had his best game of the season with a dismal 68-yard performance, but it was against a strong rush defense of the Broncos. With injuries to Nick Kazur and Steven Neal, and Matt Light also expected to be out, it would be the logical choice for the Patriots to abandon the running game and just look for those deep passes.

However, those deep routes only open up with the presence of a running game. The Titans defense is third in the league at stopping the run, giving up only 75 rushing yards a game. With Tom Brady’s inconsistency, the best way to keep the clock moving is to get one running back moving, should it be Laurence Maroney or Sammy Morris. Sure Chris Johnson has more rushing yards then Maroney and Morris, combined…and then doubled, but that doesn’t mean either back can’t perform enough to keep the chains moving and help the Patriots control the time of possession.

The Battle Through the Air

It would be nice to say that the Patriots have the better receivers outright, but that isn’t necessarily the case. Kenny Britt is the Titans top receiver and can be a dangerous deep threat for the team, but he isn’t the only Tennessee weapon. Nate Washington and Justin Gage are two receivers who can also step up and make big plays when needed. Washington had a streak of three straight games with a touchdown broken last week, but he will be looking to start a new one on Sunday. Tight ends Alge Crumpler and Bo Scaife both have over 100 yards receiving and Chris Johnson rounds out the dangerous receiving lineup, with 126 receiving yards of his own. The Patriots defense will worry about them, but the NE offense has also few weapons of their own.

Randy Moss has to be disappointed. He was the league’s top receiver a few weeks ago, but has since dropped to seventh after two unproductive weeks. He knows this Tennessee secondary can be burned and expect him to have a career day should he see the ball. Wes Welker seems to be getting back into routine, and is improving each week. He will have to step up his game if he wants to have a third straight 100-reception season. The biggest surprise could be Benjamin Watson, who is third on the team in receiving yard (187 yards), but first in touchdowns (3). The man to watch, however, is Kevin Faulk, who is five receptions away from being the 26th running back in history with 400 catches. Knowing that the Titans run defense is strong, the receivers need to pull everything in and make the big plays down the field.

What to Expect

New England has to make it clear they will not give up on the run this week. By maintaining a running game, the Patriots can allow their receivers to see single coverage, except Moss who is most likely to be doubled all game. On the other side of the ball, the key is rushing Kerry Collins. The Pats need to cause him to make mistakes to the point where the Titans might finally resurrect the Vince Young era. By keeping the ball out of Chris Johnson’s hands, and in Collins’, New England should cruise to their fourth victory of the season. Prediction: New England 28, Tennessee 13.

© Teddy for Sports of Boston, 2009. | Permalink | One comment
Filed under: Featured, Patriots, Top Story.