Bobby Valentine has had a rough week. First his sideshow debacle with Kevin Youkilis, and now another loss to the Yankees has the rage of the city of Boston at his office door. It looked like a brilliant day early on at Fenway Park late Saturday afternoon, with Felix Doubront quieting the high-powered Yankees offense over six dominant innings, but then the Boston bullpen showed up and surrendered consecutive 7-run innings in the 7th and 8th, resulting in a terrible 15-9 loss. The game represented everything that has gone wrong for the Sox in 2012.

Sox Bats Still Hitting

The one thing that has gone right all season has been the offense for the hot Sox lineup, which battered Yankees starter Freddy Garcia early and often, knocking him out after just 1.2 innings of work. Garcia was tagged for five earned runs, including RBI doubles from David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez in the first inning. Ortiz was 4-4 on the day, reaching base five times and raising his average to .436.

The Yankees bullpen didn’t exactly stop the bleeding in the early going. Cody Ross hammered a 2-run home run to center field, scoring Jarrod Saltalamacchia to give the Red Sox a 9-0 game which looked like an inevitable win. Saltalamacchia had four hits of his own, including two doubles. The nine sox runs were knocked in by seven different batters.

Inexcusable Bullpen Performance

Things changed dramatically in the second half of the action, as the Yankees began a remarkable comeback. Mark Teixeira got things started with a solo home run in the sixth, the only run surrendered by Doubront. But the next inning when Bobby Valentine sent his bullpen was when things unraveled.

Swisher Slams Padilla

Vincente Padilla was first up, allowing one out singles to Russell Martin and Eduardo Nunez before walking Derek Jeter to load the bases. Nick Swisher came up to bat, and prompting smashed a grand slam on the first pitch to quickly bring the Yankees within four runs, down 9-5. Padilla allowed a double Robinson Cano before being pulled, with his season ERA rising to 9.82.

Next was Matt Albers, who was not much better. Alex Rodriguez reached on an error by shortstop Mike Aviles, who had an awful game defensively. With runners on the corners, Teixeira hit his second home run in as many at bats to cut the lead to 9-8, as the mood at Fenway was swiftly becoming angrier. Albers was pulled by Valentine, who began to hear boos of his own.

Aceves Fails to Record an Out

Franklin Morales came in and actually managed to finish the inning without further damage, but didn’t last in the following frame following a lead off single to Nunez. Alfredo Aceves came in to attempt making the mess worse, tasking with potentially recording the final six outs as the Boston closer. Instead he walked Jeter before allowing a deep 2-run double to Swisher, giving New York a dramatic 10-9 lead.

Then Valentine ordered an intentional walk to Cano which was followed by an additional walk to Rodriguez to load the bases for Teixeira. Again the Yankees’ first baseman delivered with a crushing ground rule double down the right field line by the Pesky Pole. With still no one out in the inning, Aceves intentionally walked Curtis Granderson before being relieved by Andrew Thomas. Aceves allowed five earned runs and eventually the loss.

Valentine Jeered

Thomas got pinch-hitter Raul Ibanez to line into an unassisted double play by Adrian Gonzalez, but then Martin doubled to center where Ross looked confused fielding fly balls all day long. Two more Yankees came in to score on the play, and runners were on the corners again after Thomas allowed another base hit to Nunez. Valentine received even more boos when he visited the mound to get Thomas, and even tipped his cap to the fans as he listened to the crowd on his way back to the dugout.

In the end the Sox lost a game that should have been an easy victory. They drop to 4-10 on the season, 4.5 games behind the now first-place Yankees. They will look to avoid the sweep on Sunday, when Daniel Bard attempts to pick up his first win of the season against CC Sabathia. For now, we can question what can be done to fix this team and whether or not Bobby Valentine can manage in Boston, where on Saturday it seemed like frustration amongst fans turned into hate.

© Matthew Bond for Sports of Boston, 2012. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, National, Red Sox, Top Story.

It’s too late to undo firing Terry Francona, a rash decision born from the kind of rabid bloodlust that few fanbases besides Boston’s are capable of. But if John Henry wants to cut out the true cause of the Red Sox’s historic collapse, he needs to go one level higher and axe Theo Epstein.

Player misuse caused by bad lineups, rotation or bullpen order can certainly kill a team, and that’s the manager’s fault. But this Red Sox team had a faulty foundation, and that’s the responsibility of the general manager who built it.

The rotten core that killed this Red Sox team began five years ago, when Epstein signed J.D. Drew and Daisuke Matsuzaka for big-time bucks. Drew’s pedestrian .264 average, 16 home runs and 57.2 RBIs per season have not been worth the cost, but that’s nothing compared with Matsuzaka. The Japanese so-called superstar was a dud in Boston, failing to contribute anything meaningful from 2009 until Tommy John surgery essentially ended his Boston tenure early this season. On top of that, he became one of the most frustrating, least entertaining pitchers in recent Red Sox history. Fans hated him, and that likely translated into less revenue from him than other pitchers. This is the exact opposite of what Epstein envisioned when he signed Matsuzaka.

Were these the only two bad contracts of the Epstein Era, he keeps his job. But these were just the beginning of a downward trend of spending big money on big games that could never hack it in Boston. For example: the 2010 John Lackey signing – a desperate, panicked attempt to prove to the fans a year after losing Mark Teixeira that Epstein could still attract major talent to as tough a media market as Boston. Lackey didn’t even have a particularly good 2009 (11 wins, fewest since 2003; 3.83 ERA, highest since 2004), but it didn’t matter: Epstein took him and his histrionics anyway. The result? A winning percentage barely above .500 and an ERA over 5.00.

And if Lackey was a bad decision, signing Carl Crawford was downright awful (or: “Crawful,” as other media members have said). Here was a player who had said he didn’t like big-market teams, who said he was creeped out by Boston’s incessant scouting practices. That Epstein didn’t see a potential problem with that reflects a blindness when it comes to evaluating major league talent. Perhaps Epstein’s deep belief in sabermetrics is such that he can’t see the potentially dangerous but non-statistically measurable psychological elements of baseball. Perhaps that explains the revolving door of shortstops the Red Sox have had every year since Epstein took over.

Epstein’s inability to gauge major league talent has become so obvious that it’s time for a change. Even as the rotation was holding itself together with masking tape and Alfredo Aceves (an admittedly good signing) mid-season, Epstein still refused to go after good pitching. He acquired an injury prone Erik Bedard because he didn’t want to give away more minor prospects. Well, where were these vaunted minor leaguers? Kyle Weiland went 0-3 with an ERA over 7.00. Andrew Miler went 6-3 with a 5.54 ERA, but 0-2 in five September starts (all Red Sox losses). And discounting Aceves, only four Boston relievers (many of whom were minor league call-ups) with more than five innings pitched finished with an ERA under 4.00.

The farm system isn’t turning out the same superstars it once did, meaning that the one thing keeping Epstein among the elite GMs – his eye for young talent and scouting – is starting to disappear as well.

People blamed Francona for mis-managing this team, but that’s unfair. Perhaps Francona didn’t properly motivate his players, but how much can anyone really motivate a man who’s already a millionaire? Francona could have taken Tim Wakefield out of the starting rotation once it became clear Wakefield’s pursuit of 200 wins was distracting the team, but the public outcry against that decision would have been as loud if not louder than it’s been for Francona’s head. And besides: who could have pitched in Wakefield’s place?

How many games did the Red Sox lose because Francona used the wrong pitcher in the wrong situation? Maybe six? Lackey alone lost 12 games this season.

The fault, dear Nation, lies with Epstein, not Francona. Epstein’s moves might make sense at first, especially once run through the Red Sox PR machine. But after so many failed ideas in a row, it’s time to pull the weed out by the root.

Epstein is the root. Francona was just a bent stalk.

© Matt Goisman for Sports of Boston, 2011. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Opinion, Red Sox.

Sound the trumpets. Beat the drums. Bang the gongs. Do something with some other instrument. Clay Buchholz will soon be back with the Red Sox. The man with the 6-3 record and 3.48 ERA will finally stabilize a pitching rotation that has been ravaged by stomach illnesses and spot starts. The 1-2-3 punch necessary for playoff success will finally be re-established.

Although Boston Globe Red Sox writer Peter Abraham thinks the Red Sox will go six-man rotation until the All-Star Break, Buchholz’s return will ultimately mean a change for Boston’s back three of John Lackey, Tim Wakefield and Andrew Miller. So who goes?

Lackey Too Pricey For Bullpen

The Red Sox painted themselves into a corner with Lackey. Theo Epstein signed him not because of his actual ability, but as a show of strength. Epstein was still smarting a year after the New Yankees stole Mark Teixeira at the last minute (not unlike what happened five years prior with Alex Rodriguez), and he needed to show the Red Sox could go out and get the best player on the market. Lackey was the highest-profile free agent available, and Epstein paid him way too much.

Since joining the Red Sox, Lackey is 19-17 with an ERA approaching 5.40. He lacks both the talent and the personality to succeed in Boston. The Red Sox cut their losses after the 2005 season when they realized Edgar Renteria wouldn’t work out, and in all likelihood they’d like to do it again with Lackey. Problem is, Renteria had $32 million left on his deal, and Lackey has over $46 million. Much tougher sell.

Lackey stinks as a starter, but he’s too pricey to make a bullpen player. That’s not even really an option, because Lackey has pitched in exactly one game as a reliever, pitching a scoreless inning in 2004 in which he struck out one, gave up a hit and then got out of it with a double play.

There’s nothing the Red Sox can do with Lackey short of trading him. That’s risky, because if Miler doesn’t work out, suddenly you need a new starter, and you have no idea what a waiver-wire pitcher will give you. Moving Lackey, bad as he is, is just not an option.

Wakefield Proven and Miller Unproven as Fifth Starter

If Lackey’s price tag assures him a spot in the rotation, then Buchholz’s return means either Wakefield goes back to the bullpen or Miller goes back to Pawtucket. Wakefield is the far more proven commodity. In nine starts this year, Wakefield has given Boston four quality starts, and been an out away from a fifth (in a game the Red Sox but not Wakefield won).

Putting aside whether or not the Red Sox ought to keep Wakefield in the rotation to pay him back for jerking him around the last few seasons, Wakefield is a workhorse who when healthy can eat up innings and save the bullpen. When he’s on – which you can usually tell in the first inning – he gives the Red Sox an excellent chance to win. When he’s off, he gives up a lot of runs, but the team usually pulls him fast enough to make a comeback at least possible.

In two starts, Miller has shown some definite potential. But that’s all he’s shown: potential. Two quality starts against the last-place Padres and third-place Pirates does not a Hall-of-Fame career make. Miller’s change-up looks good against righties and he can pound the strike zone, but 12 innings is not enough on which to judge a kid’s readiness.

Miller hasn’t been tested against the big hitting teams yet. He hasn’t faced the Tigers. He hasn’t faced the Rangers. He hasn’t faced the Yankees. Wakefield has faced just about every hitter in the American League and knows how to use his skills to win those battles.

Miller won’t truly be able to show his value to the Red Sox without more major league innings, but the Red Sox can’t afford a second inconsistent pitcher on top of Lackey. The AL East is going to be a dog-fight between the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays, and whether the Indians or the Tigers win the AL Central, the other team will contend for the Wild Card all the way through September. The Red Sox will need consistent production from their fifth starter to stay in both races, and unfortunately Miller hasn’t done enough to show that just yet.

When Buchholz returns, Miller will eventually move back to Pawtucket. But he’ll probably be back in September.

© Matt Goisman for Sports of Boston, 2011. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Opinion, Red Sox, Top Story.

Josh Beckett entered Friday night’s game looking to chase the demons and beat the Yankees on their own turf. With a heavy curveball and a low-90′s fastball with movement, Beckett stymied the Yanks through the first five innings, allowing just one run on a Curtis Granderson blast in the third. As has been the case with Beckett in 2010, all it takes for one inning for everything to blow up, and it sure did on Friday.

Fortunately for Beckett, the Red Sox bats were able to build a 10-1 lead off Andy Pettitte and the Yanks bullpen. Jed Lowrie and Bill Hall each hit three-run shots, and Marco Scutaro and Darnell McDonald drove in two runs each with a single and double, respectively.

Beckett, looking to slam the door on his critics and finish his 2010 season on a good note, stayed in the game through the sixth and seventh innings, and it wasn’t pretty. In the sixth, he allowed two solo shots to Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez, and in the seventh he allowed his fourth home run of the game, a two-run job to Nick Swisher. In all, Beckett went 6.2 innings and allowed five runs (all earned) on seven hits and two walks with four HRs allowed. Eek.

Scott Atchison, in relief of Beckett, managed to record the final out of the seventh, but not before giving up a two-run shot A-Rod, who homered for the second time. Daniel Bard got through the eighth unscathed, but Jonathan Papelbon once again made things interesting when he allowed a solo home run to Teixeira in the ninth, but he was able to help the Red Sox escape with a 10-8 win.

Sox Stud of the Game: Jed Lowrie

Playing at his natural position (shortstop), Lowrie looks more comfortable than ever at the plate. Finally over mononucleosis completely, Lowrie went 4-4 with a HR, three RBI, and three runs scored.

Sox Dud of the Game: Adrian Beltre

I was going to give this to Beckett, but I already crapped all over his game enough. In a 10-run outburst for the Sox, Beltre went 0-5 and did no damage. Surprised? Thought so!

Game Notes:

W: Josh Beckett (6-5)
L: Andy Pettitte (11-3)
SV: Jonathan Papelbon (37)

• David Ortiz clubbed his 35th double off the lefty Pettitte.
• Mike Lowell left the game after getting hit in the face by a bad hop on a ground ball.
• Jarrod Saltalamacchia is out for the season.
• The Red Sox are now 6.5 games behind the Yanks and 7 behind the Rays.

© KC Downey for Sports of Boston, 2010. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Red Sox, Top Story.

This week Ryan Howard became the newest star to be locked up for the long-term. Twenty-five million dollars a year for a player likely to be more suited as a designated-hitter than a first baseman within a year or two. The question becomes then, how much should a true first baseman, and better hitter to boot, like Albert Pujols make when he (potentially) becomes a free agent in 2011?

Examining the Howard Contract

Since the news broke last week, many have pointed out the problems with the contract Howard was given by the Philadelphia Phillies. There have also been defenders of this contract, and he may well be worth the money in the end, but the truth is the list of reasons this contract does not make sense is too long to ignore.

The most obvious reason is that through his age 29 season, Howard’s three most similar batters historically are Richie Sexson, Cecil Fielder, and Mo Vaughn.  All three of these players were ineffective by age 33 and out of baseball by age 35.  Howard turned 30 in November. This contract extends through 2016 (with a team option for 2017). He will be almost 37 when this contract comes to an end.  Big power-hitters, with his body-type just have not historically been effective into their thirties. No need to look further than David Ortiz for the evidence.

The Phillies had Howard under contract for two more years. They could have looked at Ortiz as an example and seen that it might have been worth it to wait the two years to determine if Howard could continue to be effective. Going into free agency at age 32, Howard would have been lucky to receive a contract worth twenty-five million a year, and the Phillies gave it to him when they still had him under contract.

According to a formula Fangraphs.com produces based on saber metrics, Howard has had exactly one season where he was worth that much ($25.3m) and that was back in 2006. If he was at least an average fielder it would be a different story, but by all accounts he is destined to be a designated-hitter playing out of position within a few years.

What does it mean for Albert Pujols?

After the news of Howard’s contract surfaced, Keith Law of ESPN commented that if Howard was worth that much, then Pujols must be worth $50 million a year. It sounds like an exaggeration at first, but is it really that outrageous of an idea?

Pujols is clearly a superior player to Howard both offensively and defensively. He has also been much more consistent over his career and is a few months younger. It all comes down to whether one team wants him badly enough to shell out that kind of money, but there are only a handful of teams even capable of paying that sum.

The Free-Spending Yankees

The Yankees always come to mind first when thinking of the most expensive contracts in the game. They are usually in on any major free agent signings. If anyone can afford paying a player in one year more than the entire San Diego Padres roster in 2009, it’s the Yankees.

It seems unlikely they will go hard after Pujols for a couple reasons though. If he does make it to free agency, the Yankees already have one of the best defensive first basemen in the game in Mark Teixeira. Pujols is also considered one of the best at the position defensively, and neither of these guys would be happy relegated to the designated hitter position in the prime of their career.

Of course, money can change people’s mind, as we saw with C.C. Sabathia last off-season. Still with the number of long-term players they already have under contract, the Yankees are more likely to go after a lower-level star like Carl Crawford next year. The Yankees can never be counted out, but right now it looks unlikely they will be a front-runner for Pujols.

The Red Sox and Lars Anderson

There’s nothing a Red Sox fan would rather hear than the team is gearing up for a big run at a player of Pujols’ caliber. The Red Sox are probably the only team other than the Yankees that could afford a contract approaching $50 million a year.

Whether the Red Sox are in on the slugger could have a lot to do with the development of first baseman Lars Anderson. If the newest member of the PawSox continues to hit like he did before being promoted from Double-A, there may be no room and no need for Pujols. Anderson has always had the upside of a middle-of-the-order power bat, and at least above-average skills defensively, but his down season last year called into question whether he would ever reach that ceiling.

The way Anderson has come out hitting this year should have Red Sox fans drooling over his future with the club. He has the potential to make fans of this team forget they ever pined for Adrian Gonzalez or Albert Pujols. Then again, if Anderson cannot get his bat going in Pawtucket, the team may be in this same position next year and when/if Pujols becomes a free agent.  If this scenario unfolds, they could definitely be a major player in the Pujols sweepstakes.

$50 million? Probably not.

In the end, the likeliest destination for Pujols is right where he started, with the St. Louis Cardinals. No, they will not be able to pay him $50 million a year, but something like $35 million is not out of the question.

Many believe the Cardinals expressly signed Matt Holliday in order to put themselves in better position to re-sign Pujols. The rumors are that Pujols is more interested in signing with a team more committed to winning than money, and is very loyal to the only team for which he has ever played. The Cardinals showed that commitment this off-season. The likeliest outcome is that they will reach an extension before the start of Spring Training next year in the neighborhood of seven or eight years at close to $35 million a season.

Of course, if he does reach free agency, it will be hard for the big-market teams to resist a run at him.  Look for him to make close to $40 million a year if this happens, but in the end the only team that would be willing to shell out $50 million to any player in the near future is likely the Yankees.  If that happens, Red Sox fans should prepare to have a new enemy number one.

© Matt Huegel for Sports of Boston, 2010. | Permalink | One comment
Filed under: Featured, Red Sox.

The American League Golden Glove Award was handed out on Tuesday for the top-fielding player of each position based on how well each player performed throughout the year. Atop the list were Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira of the New York Yankees. Jeter won his fourth at shortstop while Teixeira won his third at first base. Also winning were Torii Hunter and Ichiro Suzuki for the ninth year in a row respectively. Evan Longoria, Adam Jones and Mark Buehrle all won their first awards while Joe Mauer and Placido Polanco both won their second.

There was one name that should have been on that list, but was not: Kevin Youkilis.

Mark Teixeira vs. Kevin Youkilis

The Numbers

The vote looks better now that Teixeira and his team won the World Series and the Red Sox were eliminated in the first round, but let’s be honest: no one plays first base as hard as Youkilis. I know that Teixeira only committed four errors on the year for a .997 fielding percentage. But, Youkilis had just one error at first base all season, posting a .998 percentage. The Yankees first baseman also turned 110 double-plays, while Youk only had 56 while at first. One stat that could’ve won the award for Teixeira is the number of putouts he had, as he finished with 1,222 putouts compared to Youkilis’s 565 at first base. But, Youk also had 52 while playing third base and three while in left field. Therein lies the problem: Youk didn’t play full-time at first base.

Youkilis played 78 games at first base, starting 77, but played 63 at third and two in left. The majority of his playing time was at first, especially before Victor Martinez was traded to the Sox at the end of July. If he lost the chance for a Gold Glove because he spilt time at third, then that is entirely unfair.

The Rafael Palmeiro Argument

Looking back at the history of Gold Glove Award, Rafael Palmeiro won the award in 1999 for first base after only playing 28 games at the position (he played 135 games as a DH that season). Sure, there was controversy over whether or not that was valid but he kept the award after hardly playing the position.

So, why can’t Youkilis win the award for first base when Palmeiro won after 28 games and Youkilis played 78? I really do not know. Do I personally think Youkilis is a better fielder than Teixeira? Yes I do. Do I think Teixeira is a bad fielder? Not at all. I just think that Youkilis should’ve had a shot at the award or maybe tied him at least. Youkilis has had some amazing plays in the field and is nearly flawless at first. Now, throw him at third and you get a very solid fielder as well who only committed four errors at the hot spot of the field compared to Mike Lowell’s nine errors on the year.

Looking Forward

Teixeira won the award this year and that should only help Youkilis want to win it even more in 2010, and he should have a good chance. Maybe next year Youk, maybe next year. Only next season, he might get it for third base instead of first.

© Greg for Sports of Boston, 2009. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Red Sox, Top Story.

Seeing as there’s less than a month left to the season, we can begin to predict what the award winners are going to look like. The one I’d like to take a look at is the AL MVP race, and this is because it will divide old school baseball fans and more sabermetrically-inclined fans for who should win. Positional valuation fun will be ALL over this one. I will list the Top 5 candidates, in the order that I foresee the writers voting for them. Also, at the end, I will list a few other candidates I see receiving votes. (I should note, when I mention leading the league in any rate stats, it’s for qualified players only).

1. Mark Teixeira, 1B, New York Yankees

Yes, there’s just too many traditional minded writers who get the right to vote still. Not to discount at all what Teixeira has done. He’s second in the league in HRs as of now and since Carlos Pena is done for the season, he has a good chance of leading the league at the end of the season. He will be one of the top players in RBI thanks to the lineup around him and he’ll have over 100 runs scored as well, for that very reason. He plays a very solid first base and voters will remember his defensive reputation from seasons past, even if he looks poor in the last few weeks. With the Yankees on pace to win over 100 games, it’s going to be too hard for these voters not to pencil him in.

2. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins

Isn’t it amazing what Mauer has done? He leads the league in batting average, on base percentage and slugging percentage (and therefore OPS). If he didn’t miss any time from the season, there’s a good chance he’d be in the top 5 in runs scored and RBIs and have over 30 home runs. Defensively, his arm is, at worst, average if not slightly above average (I had to eyeball the numbers from The Hardball Times as I couldn’t find anywhere to compare CS% for catchers, fielding-wise). He’s far above what any other catcher is doing offensively. Simply put, he’s the reason why the Twins still have a minute chance of catching the Tigers in the AL Central.

3. Derek Jeter, SS, New York Yankees

This might be the first time I can truly say that Jeter deserves MVP consideration. Jeter is going to have around 200 hits (and break Gehrig’s record for the all time hits for a Yankees player), score over 100 runs, steal around 25 bases (and be successful over 80% of the time while he’s at it), and is actually playing MUCH improved defense from seasons past. He’s far and away the best SS in the league, he’s a name not one writer can ever find a bad thing to say about him and his team is likely on the way to making the playoffs and winning over 100 games. He’ll siphon a few votes away from Teixeira from people who realize that relative to their positions, Jeter is having a more impressive season than Teixeira.

4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers

On a team that has not really had much stand out besides Justin Verlander’s return to pitching well, Miguel Cabrera having a good season again will stick out to the voters. He’s hitting for a .336 average, will likely end up with over 30 HRs, and over 90 runs scored and 90 RBIs and a nice on base percentage and slugging percentage (he’ll probably have an OPS above Teixeira’s). His pretty numbers will convince enough voters to list him high enough.

5. Kendry Morales, 1B, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

The Angels offense has been the second best in the league and Kendry’s maturation into what everyone believed he could be is a key reason. Thought to just be the equivalent of a paper weight as the Angels pursued Teixeira this offseason, Kendry Morales has 30 home runs and leads his team in RBI. He also has the second highest slugging percentage in the AL, and his team is going to the playoffs despite barely having a starting rotation much of this year.

Others receiving votes: Carlos Pena, Evan Longoria, Justin Morneau, Jason Bay, Nelson Cruz

There’s a possibility some of this could change, if say, the Rangers overtake the Red Sox for the wild card, or the Rays make a miracle run. Also, the writers could view Carlos Pena’s broken fingers as the reason the Rays fell out if they don’t make the playoffs. However, I’m confident in my Top 3, unless I wake up in a bizarro world.

© Adam for Sports of Boston, 2009. | Permalink | One comment
Filed under: Featured, Opinion, Red Sox.

Perhaps the plane tickets were wrong. Perhaps there was some baggage-related mix-up. Whatever happened, the Red Sox offense never arrived in New York, losing the fourth game of this crucial late-season series to the Yankees 5-2. Damon and Teixeira’s back-to-back home runs in the eighth inning — off Daniel Bard, no less — may have ended Boston’s division title aspirations, while Nick Swisher’s two-run single later in the same inning sealed the game.  Ladies and gents, this was ugly.

The Red Sox squandered a sterling performance by Jon Lester, who gave up one run through seven, while striking out seven. The offensive anemia has been accompanied by an uncharacteristic profligacy in the Boston bullpen, as Bard and Okajima gave up the critical runs.

Frankly, Sox fans, this was tough to watch, as Boston took an unlikely lead in the top of the 8th inning, only to watch it decisively slip away just three outs later.  That’s four of the last four the Red Sox have lost to New York. The focus has shifted to the wild-card, make no mistake.

Sox Stud of the Game:

Tied between Victor Martinez and Jon Lester, as the former teased us with prospects of victory, and the latter was cruelly denied a win for an excellent performance.

Sox Dud of the Game:

Well, he doesn’t play for the Red Sox, but Nick Swisher’s an asshole, so let’s give it to him, what with his excellent plays in the field for the Yanks. Additionally, he tried to play-act his way on base for a phantom hit-by-pitch. Then he hit a two-run single. Screw that guy.

© Jon for Sports of Boston, 2009. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Red Sox, Top Story.

Am I crazy? Some people may tell you differently, but I am so confident in this prediction that I am willing to put anything on the line. This is why I made a slap bet with my friend this week (those of you who watch “How I Met Your Mother” will know what I am talking about). The terms are simple: If C.C. Sabathia outperforms Dan Haren in ERA, WHIP and BAA, I win. The winner gets to slap the loser in the face. Read below for my analysis on both players.

With that said, this week’s edition of the Fantasy Radar will focus on the second half of the season. As we all know, every year a certain group of players always performs better or worse in the second half and I will point out the big ones for you to target (or not target) so you can make that final push and win your league!

Quick Hits

Players to target

• Jimmy Rollins (SS), Phillies: In the last three seasons, Jimmy Rollins has hit 20 points better in the second half (.296) and slugged more homers in fewer at-bats. He currently sits on a .229 batting average with seven homers and 34 RBI so he makes for a very good buy-low target. 
• Mark Teixeira (1B), Yankees: How can Mark Teixeira get any better you ask? Well the 21 first-half homer are very nice, but he is currently hitting .275, which is a little lower than expected. Consider that in the last three season Teixeira has hit .319 in the second half and belted 20 more home runs in 200 fewer at-bats. He’s no buy low, but he could definitely be worth the price to get right now.
• Adam LaRoche (1B), Pirates: He does it every year so people should finally know that this is the time you pick LaRoche up from your leagues waiver wire. Here are his stats from the last three seasons:
  
  Pre All-Star: 884 at-bats, .247 BA, 37 HR, .449 SLG
  Post All-Star: 663 at-bats, .314 BA, 41 HR, .578 SLG

Players to sell

• Corey Hart (OF), Brewers: It may be time to give up on Corey Hart this season. He has already disappointed with a .253 batting average with nine homers and 35 RBI and his second half trends are not encouraging. In his last three seasons, Hart has a .267 batting average in the second half, compared to a first half mark of .296. While the power has no drop off, he stops stealing bases as the season goes on.
• Justin Morneau (1B), Twins: Morneau has proved himself to be one of the better young first basemen in the game. However, if you are expecting any power from him in the second half, you may want to sell on him now. The numbers are loud and clear. Morneau has hit 61 homers in 987 at-bats before the All-Star break and only 27 homers in 818 at-bats afterwards.
• Ichiro Suzuki (OF), Mariners: We aren’t selling him on batting average because that will stay. However, if you are expecting him to be your main source of steals look elsewhere. Last season he only collected nine of his 43 stolen bases in the second half and in the last three years combined, he has stolen 41 bases in the second half compared to 84 first-half steals. 

Pitchers

Pitchers to target

• Johan Santana (SP), Mets: Johan always seems to get better down the stretch. Maybe it’s the pressure of the pennant race, or maybe he owns himself in his fantasy baseball league and steps it up for the fantasy playoffs. Whatever the reason, the numbers are clear. From 2004-2008, Santana has a 45-10 record with a 2.28 ERA and 533 strikeouts in 520 second-half innings. He has been struggling of late, so dealing for him now could be a move that wins you a championship.
• Roy Oswalt (SP), Astros: In the last three years, Oswalt has waited until the second half of the season to truly shine. His ERA has been over a run better after the All-Star break and he has recorded four more wins in 16 fewer starts. Unfortunately he has already started his run of great starts, but he did leave his last start against the Nationals because of numbness in his fingers. The injury doesn’t seem serious. So if you can get him, now is the time to do it.
• C.C. Sabathia (SP), Yankees: Sabathia’s 6.66 strikeouts per nine is strangely low this season and some owners don’t like the fact that the new Yankee Stadium is playing like Coors Field. These two things are the reason it is possible to trade for him right now. He is a pitcher who gets better as the season gets older and he also comes up big when it matters. He nearly carried the Brewers on his broad 6-7, 290-pound frame through the playoffs last year. I see a pitcher who has not posted an ERA over 3.00 in the second-half in three seasons and the Yankees are going to need him to be the ace that he has been in the past if they want to make the playoffs.

Pitchers to sell

Dan Haren (SP), Diamondbacks: Haren is going to be my main focus for this section because I want to make sure everyone here’s me loud and clear. Yes, Haren is enjoying an amazing season this year. He has posted a 2.01 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and a .189 opponent’s batting average, which are numbers better fit for a closer’s stat sheet. However, it seems like we say this every year with him. Midway through the season he is a top-three pitcher and then is a top-15 pitcher the rest of the way. Here are his splits from 2006-2008:

Pre All-Star:

382 2/3 IP, 2.85 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .219 BAA
Post All-Star: 279 IP, 4.42 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, .290 BAA

He still strikes out a lot of batters (8.48 strikeouts per nine) despite the worse numbers elsewhere, so he is not a bad pitcher to own in the second half. However, right now you could probably get a top-notch hitter for him and if that is the case you should sell immediately.

Other pitchers to sell in the second half:

• Matt Cain (SP), Giants
• Chris Carpenter (SP), Cardinals

Falling Fast

Adrian Gonzalez (1B), Padres – Batting .258 away from Petco

What happened to Gonzalez mashing the ball away from Petco Park? Before this season he had a career .301 batting average on the road, which helped him post reasonably good numbers despite having the offense sucked out of him by his home park. I want to believe that he will turn things around in the second half, but owners have to be worried because Adrian is being walked at an alarming rate (32 BB’s in June) and for good reason. The Padres already rank last in the majors in runs, hits, RBI, batting average (.233 yikes!!), on-base percentage, slugging percentage, AND…you guessed it, on-base plus slugging percentage. Take Gonzalez out of the lineup and you can guess how much worse the numbers get. It’s getting to the point where you just feel sorry for the guy and hope that he gets out of there sooner rather than later.

On the Mend

Jay Bruce (OF), Reds – Out 6-8 weeks with fractured wrist

The team found no ligament damage to Bruce’s wrist so that’s the good news. The bad news is he will be out until September and you will probably have to make the playoffs without his services in order for him to matter on your team. Also, with wrist injuries, players don’t usually just jump right back in and dominate and since Bruce wasn’t really dominating before it might take him a while to find his groove. He is drop worthy if you don’t have a DL spot on your team.

Jose Reyes (SS), Mets – Out since May 21 with right calf tendinitis

Jose Reyes responded well to recent agility drills during the break and the team is eyeing an early August return as a best case scenario. However, he is still running with pain and gets winded easily. He may not be the same player when he returns since he relies on his legs so much. Hopefully he doesn’t suffer any more setbacks because the Mets need their players back ASAP if they are going to make a run at the playoffs.

Down on the Farm

Chris Tillman, SP, Orioles

Often the forgotten part of the very lopsided Erik Bedard trade, Tillman has been dominating in the minors since his arrival in the Orioles farm system. This season he has 16 starts and has posted a 2.50 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP and 88 strikeouts in 86 2/3 innings. Look for the Orioles to try him out sometime in the second half and he could provide some immediate value if the matchup is right. Man do the Orioles look good for 2011 with pitchers Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Brian Bergesen and hitters Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, Matt Wieters and Nolan Reimold!

© George for Sports of Boston, 2009. | Permalink | 3 comments
Filed under: Fantasy, Featured.

It’s the time of year again when somehow ESPN believes John Kruk, Steve Phillips, and many other wannabe experts can tell you who should be on the MLB All-Star team. The other night I was trying to catch highlights of an Albert Pujols home run and Baseball Tonight was trying to push the meme of Tim Wakefield for the All Star Team just because he’s made so many starts for the Red Sox over the years. Really, that’s the qualification these days?

Well, I guess the Yankees better send over their petition to get Andy Pettitte on the team then, as well.  Of course, the best players in each league will not all make it due to injury, pitching schedules, and the cockamamie one player from every team rule. Boy is that going to suck this year when they need a player from Washington. Anyway, here is who I am voting for and why (one item of note: I’m using stats through last Saturday).

AL First Baseman: Kevin Youkilis

As much as I want to vote for Mark Teixeira, and as much as I believe that by the end of the season, Teixeira will have put up the best numbers of all first basemen, it is very hard to argue with what Kevin Youkilis has done offensively and defensively. Plus, when it’s time for reserves to come in, he can slide over to third for an inning or two. Or maybe I’m just saying it so that if there’s late inning heroics, it increases the chances that Teixeira is involved? Nah. I truly think that given that we’re supposed to use a half season or so of stats to choose who starts the game, Youkilis is the best choice.

AL Second Baseman: Ian Kinsler

Before I reveal my second base choice, how insane is it that Akinori Iwamura is listed as the second basemen for the Rays? He’s out for the season and has been out since late May. MLB really needs to do something about that, as it’s not fair to a guy like Ben Zobrist, who is playing out of his mind. But, going with who’s on the ballot, Ian Kinsler is back to being the top 2B in baseball, thanks to a little concept called regression hitting Dustin Pedroia.

AL Shortstop: Jason Bartlett

At shortstop, I’m going to go with Jason Bartlett, who has been a little more valuable than Marco Scutaro despite missing some time for injury. Plus, Marco Scutaro is having a major fluke of a first half.

AL Third Baseman: Evan Longoria

At third base, there should be no questioning my choice of Evan Longoria. Even after missing time for injury, he has had a great first half to follow up on his great rookie campaign.

AL Catcher: Joe Mauer

My catcher of choice is going to be the man that SI is hoping hits .400 and never tests positive for steroids: Joe Mauer. Can you believe that some people want to move this guy out from behind the plate? He brings a great bat, great glove, great arm and great ability to call games to his arsenal.

AL Outfield: Ichiro Suzuki, Torii Hunter, and Carl Crawford

Finally, my three outfielders for the AL will be Ichiro Suzuki (who will make it even if he doesn’t deserve it, thanks to Japan only having one notable player to vote for this year), Torii Hunter (man is he proving people wrong about his contract or what?), and Carl Crawford. Some honorable nods in the outfield go to Nelson Cruz, Curtis Granderson, and Adam Lind (however, they’re not the top 3).

Looking back at this roster makes me realize just how scary good Tampa Bay’s offense is, by the way. If only they could get their pitching in order…Okay, back on topic.

NL First Baseman: Albert Pujols

First base in the NL belongs to a guy who I am still fascinated to watch play, Albert Pujols. I don’t even think you can argue for anyone else, given the numbers he’s put up offensively. Plus, Pujols is no slouch with the glove, either.

NL Second Baseman: Chase Utley

Second base will go to one of the most valuable players on the defending World Series champions, Chase Utley. His closest competitor would be Freddy Sanchez, but Sanchez is left in the dust by the type of production that Utley gives.

NL Shortstop: Hanley Ramirez

Hanley Ramirez is far and away the best shortstop in the NL. It sure is fascinating to see the middle infield talent that Boston chose to trade away.

NL Third Baseman: Ryan Zimmerman

While David Wright will get the attention as the sexy choice due to his batting average (one that is a fluke, given how often he is striking out and how few HRs he’s hitting), Ryan Zimmerman is my choice for third base. He’s a pretty good hitter and a GREAT fielder. Mets fans always complain about Wright’s defense and I got to see three games of Zimmerman’s and Mets fans get to see 17 of it, and now I understand why they complain.

NL Catcher: Brian McCann

The only viable candidate for catcher in the NL should be Brian McCann. He’s not quite as amazing as Joe Mauer, but he’s very good overall. He’s been the glue of the Atlanta offense this year.

NL Outfielders: Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Raul Ibanez

Finally, in the outfield, I would choose Matt Kemp, Justin Upton and Raul Ibanez. Kemp has put up pretty good numbers, considering he’s without Manny Ramirez in the Dodgers lineup, and Joe Torre has his crazy ideas for where fellow Dodgers OF Andre Ethier should be in the lineup. Kemp has really shined defensively, as well.

Justin Upton has followed up a decent 2008 with a much improved strikeout rate and more power. Additionally, he’s been better on the basepaths. Ibanez is still having a crazy good season, even though he has cooled off a little as of late.

Ryan Braun just misses the cut, and I have a feeling if Carlos Beltran were healthy throughout all of this season, or could’ve gotten a few days off here and there (as opposed to playing every day thanks to injuries to Reyes and Delgado), then he could have put up the overall numbers to be well worthy of a spot, as well.

Well, now that I’ve revealed my ballot, I’d love to hear of some of yours. Surely, you can do better than ESPN, too.

© Adam for Sports of Boston, 2009. | Permalink | 3 comments
Filed under: Featured, Opinion.