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If The Playoffs Started Today – MLB Week 6

John — Thu, 17 May 2012 16:21:38 +0000

Interleague play is almost upon us, and that will mix up the races for sure. In fact, there’s a three-way tie for the top AL spot. The NL race isn’t too far away from that either. However, injuries are continuing to hit key names, which should shake things up even more. Where do things stand in the face of all this? Let’s look at what would happen if the playoffs started as of Thursday, May 17, before the day’s games:

National League

#1 Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers have lost some major offense with Matt Kemp on the DL, and have now lost two in a row. LA is certainly having a rough time right now, and they’ll need Kemp healthy to contend, but they have some pieces that should hold them well enough until that happens.

#2 Washington Nationals vs #3 St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are still working on getting Lance Berkman back into form, which will do wonders for them once he’s back to full strength. The Nationals might need Jayson Werth back healthy to compete, but it isn’t really necessary.

#W1 Atlanta Braves vs #W2 New York Mets

The Braves are still maintaining their spot right behind Washington for the division. They haven’t exactly been the best team lately, but New York has been hit or miss lately as well. The Braves have had more overall success in recent years, so they’ll probably have the edge in experience there.

American League

#1 Texas Rangers

The Rangers are busy fighting off Tampa and Baltimore for #1, but they still have a 5.0-game lead over Oakland. And with Josh Hamilton running on all cylinders leading the way, they’ll do well for themselves.

#2 Baltimore Orioles vs #3 Cleveland Indians

Cleveland has won three in a row, but Baltimore is on a winning streak as well. Cleveland is good on the road, but they still have issues playing at home. They’ll need to do a lot better than they are to get somewhere.

#W1 Tampa Bay Rays vs #W2 New York Yankees

The Yankees are already down Mariano Rivera, and now they’re out David Robertson thanks to an oblique strain. Their pitching certainly isn’t doing well, but they do still have Rafael Soriano. But with four straight wins, the Rays certainly have a lot more going for them.

What Might Change Next Week:

The Marlins have a decent chance to take over the last Wildcard from the Mets.
Similarly, the Rays have a decent chance to take the division from the Orioles.

If the Playoffs Started Today – MLB Week 3

John — Thu, 26 Apr 2012 22:56:44 +0000

Three weeks into the season, and there’s starting to be some real separation in the NL divisions, but the AL is still largely close. The AL East is starting to even out, while Washington’s stock continues to rise. Where has everyone wound up this week? Let’s look at what would happen if the playoffs started as of Thursday, April 26, at 7:00pm:

National League

#1 Washington Nationals

All of a sudden, the Nationals are just half a game behind the Rangers. They’re 14-4, and have won four straight, an impressive showing to be sure.

#2 Los Angeles Dodgers vs #3 St. Louis Cardinals

The Dodgers have lost two in a row (at home), which is tough when the opponent (Atlanta) went into that stretch with a losing road record. St. Louis has done plenty of damage on the road, so Los Angeles will need to be careful once St. Louis get healthy.

#W1 Atlanta Braves vs #W2 New York Mets

The Braves pulled off two wins in L.A, while New York completed a sweep of Miami. Both teams are doing well, but Atlanta has more talent at their disposal for a playoff game.

American League

#1 Texas Rangers

The Yankees may have picked off a game from Texas, but in a series, Texas easily has an edge with their potent power.

#2 Tampa Bay Rays vs #3 Chicago White Sox

Thanks to a perfect game, the White Sox are half a game ahead of the Indians and Tigers. But the Rays have been significantly better overall so far. Tampa should be able to take this series pretty easily.

#W1 Baltimore Orioles vs #W2 New York Yankees

The Orioles are doing quite well, but New York did sweep a road series already. With such a potent lineup, and C.C. Sabathia, and Mariano Rivera, don’t be surprised to see New York pull off a road victory.

What Might Change Next Week:

With Justin Verlander going against the Yankees, the Tigers may be the favorite to take over the division.

Red Sox Blow 9-Run Lead in Horrific Loss to Yankees

Matthew Bond — Sun, 22 Apr 2012 07:06:46 +0000

Bobby Valentine has had a rough week. First his sideshow debacle with Kevin Youkilis, and now another loss to the Yankees has the rage of the city of Boston at his office door. It looked like a brilliant day early on at Fenway Park late Saturday afternoon, with Felix Doubront quieting the high-powered Yankees offense over six dominant innings, but then the Boston bullpen showed up and surrendered consecutive 7-run innings in the 7th and 8th, resulting in a terrible 15-9 loss. The game represented everything that has gone wrong for the Sox in 2012.

Sox Bats Still Hitting

The one thing that has gone right all season has been the offense for the hot Sox lineup, which battered Yankees starter Freddy Garcia early and often, knocking him out after just 1.2 innings of work. Garcia was tagged for five earned runs, including RBI doubles from David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez in the first inning. Ortiz was 4-4 on the day, reaching base five times and raising his average to .436.

The Yankees bullpen didn’t exactly stop the bleeding in the early going. Cody Ross hammered a 2-run home run to center field, scoring Jarrod Saltalamacchia to give the Red Sox a 9-0 game which looked like an inevitable win. Saltalamacchia had four hits of his own, including two doubles. The nine sox runs were knocked in by seven different batters.

Inexcusable Bullpen Performance

Things changed dramatically in the second half of the action, as the Yankees began a remarkable comeback. Mark Teixeira got things started with a solo home run in the sixth, the only run surrendered by Doubront. But the next inning when Bobby Valentine sent his bullpen was when things unraveled.

Swisher Slams Padilla

Vincente Padilla was first up, allowing one out singles to Russell Martin and Eduardo Nunez before walking Derek Jeter to load the bases. Nick Swisher came up to bat, and prompting smashed a grand slam on the first pitch to quickly bring the Yankees within four runs, down 9-5. Padilla allowed a double Robinson Cano before being pulled, with his season ERA rising to 9.82.

Next was Matt Albers, who was not much better. Alex Rodriguez reached on an error by shortstop Mike Aviles, who had an awful game defensively. With runners on the corners, Teixeira hit his second home run in as many at bats to cut the lead to 9-8, as the mood at Fenway was swiftly becoming angrier. Albers was pulled by Valentine, who began to hear boos of his own.

Aceves Fails to Record an Out

Franklin Morales came in and actually managed to finish the inning without further damage, but didn’t last in the following frame following a lead off single to Nunez. Alfredo Aceves came in to attempt making the mess worse, tasking with potentially recording the final six outs as the Boston closer. Instead he walked Jeter before allowing a deep 2-run double to Swisher, giving New York a dramatic 10-9 lead.

Then Valentine ordered an intentional walk to Cano which was followed by an additional walk to Rodriguez to load the bases for Teixeira. Again the Yankees’ first baseman delivered with a crushing ground rule double down the right field line by the Pesky Pole. With still no one out in the inning, Aceves intentionally walked Curtis Granderson before being relieved by Andrew Thomas. Aceves allowed five earned runs and eventually the loss.

Valentine Jeered

Thomas got pinch-hitter Raul Ibanez to line into an unassisted double play by Adrian Gonzalez, but then Martin doubled to center where Ross looked confused fielding fly balls all day long. Two more Yankees came in to score on the play, and runners were on the corners again after Thomas allowed another base hit to Nunez. Valentine received even more boos when he visited the mound to get Thomas, and even tipped his cap to the fans as he listened to the crowd on his way back to the dugout.

In the end the Sox lost a game that should have been an easy victory. They drop to 4-10 on the season, 4.5 games behind the now first-place Yankees. They will look to avoid the sweep on Sunday, when Daniel Bard attempts to pick up his first win of the season against CC Sabathia. For now, we can question what can be done to fix this team and whether or not Bobby Valentine can manage in Boston, where on Saturday it seemed like frustration amongst fans turned into hate.

Yankees Spoil Fenway’s 100th Anniversary

Matthew Bond — Sat, 21 Apr 2012 02:17:42 +0000

Fenway Park celebrated its 100th birthday as Boston Red Sox legends gathered before the game for a spectacular showing, but the New York Yankees crashed the party. Led by five solo home runs off of Sox starter Clay Buchholz, the Bronx Bombers lived up to their nickname and took the first game of the year in the historic rivalry, handing Boston a 6-2 loss.

Yankees Tee Off

Alex Rodriguez got New York started in the first inning with an RBI single, driving in Derek Jeter. The rest of the offense for the Yankees came via the long ball. Nick Swisher and Eric Chavez both went deep the second to give them a 3-0 lead.

David Ortiz homered in the bottom half of the inning against Ivan Nova to keep his hot hitting going. Big Papi is batting an incredible .392 on the year with 11 runs batted in. Nova, though, pitched well over six innings, striking out five batters while allowing just two runs.

Buchholz, on the other hand, was shaky over his six innings of work, surrendering the five solo shots and all six runs to the Yankees. They hit home runs in three consecutive innings, starting with Chavez’s second of the game in the 4th, a bomb from Rodriguez over the monster in the 5th, and another from Russell Martin in the sixth.

Buchholz drops to 1-1 on the young season with a 9.00 ERA, while Nova improves to 3-0.

The teams wore old jerseys and caps, the Sox from their 1912 uniforms and the Yankees donning old New York Highlanders attire.

Saturday afternoon the teams will square off again, this time with Felix Doubront taking the ball for Boston against Freddy Garcia.

2012 Red Sox Preview: Relief Pitchers

Matthew Bond — Thu, 15 Mar 2012 13:00:31 +0000

A big storyline heading into this new season is how the Red Sox bullpen will perform given significant personal changes. Gone is four-time All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon to free agency. A big change awaits former dominate set up man Daniel Bard as he is stretched out to start this year to help a limited rotation. Here’s a look at 11 pitchers who should have some impact on the success of the Red Sox bullpen in 2012.

Closer

Andrew Bailey

When Papelbon signed with the Philadelphia Phillies for a lucrative contract, Boston received questions as to who would replace him this year. The answer came on December 28th when they acquired Andrew Bailey in a five-player trade with the Oakland Athletics. The 2009 Rookie of the Year and two-time All-Star is 27 years old and should be great as the Sox closer, as long as he stays on the field.

In the last two seasons he’s appeared in only 89 games closing for Oakland, and last year his ERA jumped to 3.24 in 41.0 innings. He has consistently saved around 25 games each season and should be expected to earn a few more on a better Boston club, but the most important thing is clearly his health. If he isn’t healthy throughout the majority of the season it’s going to hurt the Sox depth, though they do have other options to close.

Set Up Man

Mark Melancon

The Red Sox actually traded for two closers this Winter, as a few weeks before the Bailey trade they acquired reliever Mark Melancon from Houston in a deal including infielder Jed Lowrie. Initially thought of as the new closer, Melancon will serve as an eighth inning set up man for Bailey. Last year in his real first complete season he posted a 2.78 ERA with 20 saves for a bad Astros ball club.

This year the former Yankees reliever will need to adjust to a bigger market rather than the Houston environment where he found comfort. I naturally expect his ERA to rise in the American League, but for him to perform as an admirable replacement for Bard. Inning count doesn’t seem like much of a concern for him, as he tossed 74.1 last season. If Bailey were to go down Melancon could slide right into that closer role like he had with the Astros.

Starters or Relievers?

Alfredo Aceves

People talk about Alfredo Aceves like he’s a Cy Young award winner. And they should. Another former Yankee, he was arguably the most important pitcher for the Red Sox last year. This year he’s being considered to begin the season as a fifth starter, and he could pull it off as he bounced back and forth between starting and pitching a few innings here and there in relief in 2011.

Last year Aceves pitched 114.0 innings with a great 2.61 ERA. In his career between Boston and New York he’s had a knack for earning victories without losing much, posting a combined remarkable 24-3 record. I think he’s most valuable in the bullpen right now and should see plenty of action in the middle innings and even the seventh this season.

Daniel Bard

Personally, I have a problem with Bard as a starter this season. Clearly he wanted the “promotion” and the Red Sox have a need for starting pitching, but I feel like with all the turmoil in the Red Sox organization right now, he’s the type of guy you leave alone. Sure his ERA elevated to 3.33 last year but his WHIP was better than ever at 0.959. In my opinion, he was becoming a great set up man and was a clear candidate to close one day, but that doesn’t mean starting games is a bad decision either.

The most important aspect of his transition to the rotation is that Bard wants it, it’s not a managerial decision being forced down upon him, it’s a role he wants with the team and is willing to work at. Early in Spring Training he’s looked pretty good going multiple innings and will likely fit in the fourth spot in the rotation come April.

Middle Relief Options

Matt Albers

In his second season with the Red Sox, Matt Albers will have a similar role of middle reliever who will appear in a few games a week, building up a solid innings count over the course of the season. Last year he pitched 64.2 innings with a 4.73 ERA, which is roughly where he’ll likely fall this year.

Rich Hill

I’m not quite sure what to make of Rich Hill after the 15 total games he’s appeared in with the Red Sox over the last two seasons. It’s always interesting at the beginning of a year when a lefty has a shot at the bullpen, because usually there’s a general perception that the pitcher can be great. Hill certainly could be valuable to the Sox, but great is a stretch at best. Look for him to face some of better left-handed bats in the American League East, like Robinson Cano, Carlos Pena, and Nick Markakis.

Bobby Jenks

Throughout this Winter there has been a surprising positive vibe towards Bobby Jenks, who struggled mightily in his first season with Boston last year mostly due to injuries. Jenks pitched just 15.2 innings in 19 games after being seen as an ideal seventh inning pitcher. This offseason he faced a life-threatening surgical procedure on his back, but the hope is that he will emerge as a possible solid reliever like his days in Chicago.

Franklin Morales

The Red Sox got exactly what they thought they were getting when Franklin Morales was traded to them from the Rockies. He was an effective lefty who maintains an ERA below 4.00. He pitched 32.1 innings with the Sox and 46.1 overall for the year between the two leagues, striking out 31 and walking 11 while in Boston. He should see the majority of the time pitching against lefties in 2012 unless Rich Hill is healthy and effective.

Long Relief Options

Michael Bowden

So far there hasn’t much to glamor over in Michael Bowden‘s time at the big league level, but he has that slight promise of a potential starter that keeps him around. He’s only 25 years old and certainly has time to grow, but this year could be a decisive on terms of how the Sox view him long term. Bowden should see some time in the bullpen this season, and should see more innings than the 20.0 he pitched last year.

Felix Doubront

I really thought this would be the year Felix Doubront would be viewed as a member of the rotation, and it’s still possible he gets there, but for now his role remains long lefty reliever. He’s appeared in the last two seasons for Boston and has shown good stuff at times despite high ERA numbers. He still needs plenty of work but the potential remains for the 24-year old.

Junichi Tazawa

While Japanese pitchers might not have the best reputation pitching in Boston lately, Junichi Tazawa will see some time with the club this year. He pitched 25.1 innings in 2009 but hasn’t been around much lately because of injuries. He’s headed for the minor leagues without a doubt, but if someone gets hurt it’s likely his name will come up to log some innings over the course of the summer months.

What to Expect

There is little depth in the Red Sox bullpen, and it remains a key weakness for the team heading into this year. Those optimistic about a championship run to avenge last year’s collapse better be expecting some roster changes at some point, because beyond Bailey, Melancon, and Aceves it’s hard to imagine this bullpen maintaining leads all season long. At the end of the day health will be the biggest factor for the success of these players, especially the closer Bailey. If they are healthy Bailey and Melancon could form a dynamic 1-2 punch shortening games and helping take stress of the front part of the rotation. Let’s hope so.

What We Learned This Week: No More Beer, No More Varitek

Dan Davis — Fri, 02 Mar 2012 16:18:12 +0000

What We Learned This Week:

Week of 2/23-3/1

1. Jason Varitek retired. A good way to honor the Captain is to retire that hockey-style captain’s “C” that was on his jersey. Don’t give it out to anyone else, so that Jason Varitek will be the only Red Sox player in team history to ever wear the “C.” Someday soon, hopefully the Sox will have a day of honor at Fenway for Tim Wakefield and Varitek. Wake can throw out the first knuckleball, and Varitek can chase it all the way to the backstop. Just like old times.

2. The Red Sox have banned beer in the clubhouse. Will shots of whiskey before playoff games still be allowed?

3. Fenway Park caught on fire. Unfortunately, neither John Lackey’s nor Carl Crawford’s contracts were burned up in the blaze.

4. The Bruins, who were shut out 5 times in February, hope to add more firepower by bringing back Brian Rolston. Can Jozef Stumpel and Rob Zamuner be far behind?

5. Bobby Valentine is already mouthing off about the Yankees. He doesn’t make much sense with his comments, but that doesn’t matter. Valentine loves to stir the pot, and he knows he won’t be unpopular in New England for irritating Yankee players. But the whole thing would work better if his comments actually made sense, and if he didn’t have to publicly admit he was wrong the next day.

6. Luke Scott thinks Red Sox fans are vulgar. Well why not say so, when it’s pretty clear that they often are? Sox fans will probably yell plenty of swear words at Luke Scott this year, in addition to calling him a moron redneck racist. Well why not say so, when it’s pretty clear that he often is?

What If…Ellsbury for Granderson?

Matthew Bond — Sat, 18 Feb 2012 14:44:53 +0000

In the Winter of 2009, the New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, and Arizona Diamondbacks executed one of the most memorable 3-way trades in recent history. New York received big name outfielder Curtis Granderson.

It’s amazing how even the trade has appeared to be across the board after a couple of seasons. Granderson has grown into one of the elite players in the game, being one of the biggest parts of the Yankees offense in 2011 despite his struggles in 2010.

Austin Jackson hasn’t quite lived up to his potential after an off 2011 season, however he nearly batted .300 in his rookie season with Detroit. Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth are solid relief pitchers at the Major League level, and Max Scherzer has established himself as a part of the Detroit rotation.

At first the Diamondbacks were seen as the big losers in the trade, until Ian Kennedy nearly won the Cy Young award in 2011. He finished 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA leading Arizona to a division title. Edwin Jackson has since left for free agency, but also left an impact with an incredible 149-pitch no hitter in 2010, which included 8 walks.

What Could Have Been

Before that three-way deal took place however, it was the Red Sox who were having serious discussions with Detroit about moving Granderson. Reportedly, the Tigers initially wanted both Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury in exchange for their star outfielder, but when Theo Epstein and the Sox front office effectively laughed at the offer, the two sides discussed a deal involving just the outfielders straight up.

The fun part about trading in baseball is the endless hypotheticals involving how things would have turned out. Of course, you can’t simply transition numbers from one player to a different team had he played for them considering how much of a difference pitchers and ballpark play into them over the course of a season. If we were to slightly account for these variables, here’s a look at each season and the major differences we would have seen from the Boston perspective:

2010 Season

There’s no question that the Red Sox would have benefited from trading Jacoby Ellsbury when you look back at the 2010 season. Ellsbury was plagued by injuries, being limited to only 18 games for the season, and not being an effective even when he did play. In the years prior, Ellsbury was seen as a superstar in the making, especially after leading the American League in steals in 2008 and 2009.

The Red Sox finished 89-73 in 2010, which meant third place in the East and no October baseball. Injuries were the theme of the season, as players including Ellsbury were dropping left and right to the point where it was amazing they performed as well as they did. Although Granderson did not perform exceptionally well in 2010, he was a regular in the Yankees lineup and would have been the difference in Boston missing out on the playoffs.

2011 Season

Both Ellsbury and Granderson surprisingly emerged as MVP candidates in 2011, with Ellsbury finishing second behind Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander. The Sox outfielder batted .321, scoring 119 runs in 158 games, a major difference from his previous season. Even more stunning was his newfound power. Ellsbury went from being a speedy leadoff hitter to a slugger, mashing 32 home runs and gathering 105 RBI. Though the Sox were eliminated on the final day of the regular season, he was the best all around offensive force on the team.

Granderson was similarly the story for New York in 2011, taking advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium with 41 home runs. He also accumulated 119 RBI with the power stroke, but remained a great baserunner, amazingly scoring 136 runs in 156 games. The question for both players is identifying how each of their careers will play out after being on top of baseball in 2011.

Outlook on Future

Ellsbury had always been seen as a future star, and was putting up numbers with the Red Sox early on that projected him upwards. His power surge was unexpected, and was likely a fluke for a player like him. I expect that he consistently bats around .300 for the next several years and approaches the 20-25 home run range at most, still lots of power for a leadoff hitter,

Granderson on the other hand does not bat for high average as Ellsbury does, and can sometimes be a true power pull hitter. The highest he ever batted in the major leagues was .302 with Detroit in 2007, a number which I think is the most he could bat in the near future. I think it’s more realistic to project Granderson batting around .270 with 30-35 home runs.

Given everything, the potential trade between the Red Sox and Tigers would have been a mistake for Boston. As an offensive force, Granderson is much better suited for Yankee stadium than Fenway Park. At Fenway his home run totals over the last couple of seasons would have notably dropped, while his batting average would have hovered around the .260. He would not have been as perfect a fit as Ellsbury with the Red Sox now, which is why we can look back on the potential trade and not feel as if the Sox missed out on a great opportunity.

Declarmen Joins Okajima With Yankees

Matthew Bond — Wed, 01 Feb 2012 03:01:44 +0000

The legacy of any player to spend time in the Red Sox organization is established when his time at the organization ends and he moves on in his career. The exception to this is former Sox players whose paths lead them to the rival Yankees. This scenario has popped up multiple times this offseason, as both Manny Delcarmen and Hideki Okajima have agreed to minor league deals with New York over the past couple months.

Delcarmen and Okajima in Boston

Delcarmen was a member of the Sox bullpen from 2005-2010 when he was traded to the Colorado Rockies. He grew up in the Boston area and was fun to watch for the first few years of his time with the Red Sox, including throwing 74.1 innings in the 2008 season while posting a solid 3.27 ERA. However as time passed, he became notably less effective, only appearing in 9 more Major League games after his trade to the Rockies.

Okajima started his big league career in 2007 when he burst onto the scene as a rookie out of Japan, making the All-Star Game via the final vote and being a key contributor in the bullpen for the Red Sox 2007 World Series Championship. He quietly lived in the shadow of Daisuke Matsuzaka, but made an impact in the game as he became one of the best left-handed relievers in the game in his first few years. However slowly the league started to figure out his awkward delivery and his ERA rose to 4.50 in 2010. He played in just 7 games last year after contract disputes with Boston and ended up signing with New York.

Yankees Bullpen

While Delcarmen and Okajima give little reason to believe the New York Yankees bullpen is any better, it is noticeable that they have a large amount of depth to their roster. With tremendous set up men like David Robertson and Rafael Soriano backing up Mariano Rivera, these two small additions show how deep the Yankees could be in 2012 if their bullpen is hurt by injuries as they were in 2011 with both Soriano, Joba Chamberlain, and Pedro Feliciano. Their additions of Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda only further their strength in pitching, something usually lacking with typical New York teams. Either way, it should be interesting to see if Delcarmen or Okajima can make the club and if the Sox will get a crack at their old teammates.

Breaking the (Piggy) Bank: Moving Red Sox Payroll

Nick Bohlen — Fri, 20 Jan 2012 06:29:57 +0000

When the New York Yankees went ahead and revamped their starting rotation, trading for 23-year-old pitching phenom Michael Pineda and signing Hiroki Kuroda to a one-year deal, they immediately became the favorites to win the AL East again in 2012.

On paper, that is. (Allow me this one glimmer of hope, please and thank you. September 2011 was not kind to me.)

It of course prompted immediate speculation on how the Red Sox would respond. What would rookie-GM Ben Cherington do to answer Boston’s biggest rival? Would the Red Sox continue to sit pat? Would they make a play for Roy Oswalt, purportedly only asking for a one-year contract in the range of $8 million?

According the WEEI’s Rob Bradford, the Red Sox would reportedly have to move payroll in order to meet Oswalt’s contract demands. Yup, the team with player salaries already topping $170 million, the same ownership group that signed off on $142 million worth of Carl Crawford, aren’t willing to take the luxury tax hit. Apparently John Henry maxed out his credit card buying $300 headphones to massage his players’ egos and eardrums.

With Kuroda, Ryan Madson, and Oswalt all available for what amounts to the spare change rolled up in the tarp at Fenway, the Red Sox remain remarkably and ridiculously steadfast (read: stingy) in keeping together a team that squandered a nine-game lead in less than a month. (So the Red Sox are shooting for that newfangled extra wild card spot? Is that it?)

For the sake of argument, let’s say Cherington comes to his senses and realizes how desperately he needs a reliable frontline starter to hedge his bets on Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, and Vincente Padilla. On a scale of “No Way, José Valentin” to “Manny Being Manny,” who would the Red Sox unload to make the numbers work?

Sawx Foh-evah

Clearly Cherington won’t unload any cornerstones of the franchise, particularly the homegrown talent that has been central to Red Sox success in recent years. That means Dustin Pedroia, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz with their long-term, team-friendly deals won’t be going anywhere. Nor will Adrian Gonzalez, who cost the Red Sox a pretty prospect. No way, no how for any of those guys.

If Julio Lugo and Edgar Renteria had a Child…

On the other side of untradeable, these are the terrible players and their monster contracts that not even Frank McCourt pre-divorce would try to take on. I’m talking about you, John Lackey ($15.25 million per year), Carl Crawford ($19 million), Daisuke Matsuzaka ($10 million), Bobby Jenks ($6 million), and yes, even you, Josh Beckett ($15.75 million). They’re all immovable objects, and not just because of their beer guts.

That is, unless Cherington can convince the San Diego Padres to reopen negotiations on John Lackey. But without a Red Sox secret agent at the helm, it may be tough to pull off another heist like the Gonzalez trade (Anthony Rizzo almost lasted a full year before they deemed him a bust!).

Forgive Me, Father, For I Have Sinned

This possibility makes me want to let Carl Everett headbutt me until it makes sense, but it can’t be overlooked: Jacoby Ellsbury.

I’m well aware that he just finished second in the 2011 MVP voting and that he is the sexiest player this side of El Guapo. But his salary arbitration will skyrocket every year if he keeps it up, or he’ll merit a lucrative long-term deal (if Crawford got $142 million, what will Ellsbury command?!). And if the Red Sox can’t even shell out $8 million to Oswalt this year, how do they expect to hang onto Ellsbury in the future? Could it be that they trade him for a serious haul of top-level prospects?

My suspicion (call it a conspiracy theory) is that the Red Sox are actually refusing to go after Oswalt in order to reset their luxury tax payments and reserve that money for signing Ellsbury to a massive extension. Let us pray.

The Real Deals (To Be Made)

Now, obviously the small contract guys like Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Ryan Sweeney, Mike Aviles, Franklin Morales, and company can be written off because they don’t even make a splash next to John Henry’s yacht. Seriously. They probably make as much as Henry’s seaward butlers.

No, the Red Sox have two players they might be able to move to clear space for Oswalt: J.D. Drew Kevin Youkilis and Marco Scutaro. I’ve already outlined why I think Youkilis could make a decent trade chip. To recap, he has value as one of few power-hitting third basemen in the major leagues and is relatively affordable at $12 million this year. The Red Sox could get a decent return on such a trade, and it’s not like he has been extremely reliable on the field or in the clubhouse for Boston the last two years. He’s also 33.

Scutaro is also on the back-end of his career, in the last year of his contract before Jose Iglesias presumably takes over. That makes his $6 million option eminently expendable, with no long-term role on the team. His trade value probably isn’t as high, but Scutaro is a reliable starting shortstop with decent fielding and the second-best batting average among players at his position in 2011.

Who wants to make a deal?

Paper-Thin Dreams

Unfortunately, the Red Sox traded the one player best primed to take over for either Youkilis or Scutaro, shipping Jed Lowrie to Houston for reliever Mark Melancon. Mike Aviles could presumably serve as a suitable replacement for either player, but that would figure to be a significant downgrade offensively.

Still, to essentially trade Youkilis or Scutaro for Oswalt’s consistently sub-4.00 ERA (career 3.21), strong strikeout-to-walk ratio (over 3 to 1), and pedigree as an ace unafraid to pitch under pressure? Might not be a bad idea.

On paper, that is.

Low-Cost Pitching: The 2011 Yankees vs. the 2012 Red Sox

Josh Segal — Wed, 18 Jan 2012 17:00:45 +0000

With their latest addition of Vincente Padilla, the Red Sox continue their spree of signing old and terrible pitchers. To the frustration of many fans, the Red Sox continue to pass on established starters such as Roy Oswalt for the likes of Carlos Silva and Aaron Cook. Meanwhile, the Yankees acquired Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda to create quite the formidable starting rotation. Simply put, the competition got a lot better. Did somebody just say “third place threepeat”? Probably.

Nevertheless, two observations can be made with these “low-risk, high reward” signings. For starters (pun) the Red Sox are really cheap. Secondly, Boston is clearly trying to imitate the 2011 Yankees’ plan of striking lightning by adding pitching depth with low-cost deals. The only problem? The Yankees did it the right way, while the Red Sox are doing it the wrong way.

The Yankee Plan

Instead of overpaying via trade of free agency for starting pitching in 2011, New York opted for low-risk deals. Heading into spring training they were ridiculed, and deservedly so. A Yankees rotation that included Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon was unacceptable. Neither of these old and injury riddled pitchers had been effective for years. But to everyone’s surprise, these two exceeded expectations. Garcia put up a solid 12-8 record and 3.62 ERA, while Colon could boast a respectable 8-10 record with a 4.00 ERA. Sure, these players were only shadows of their former selves, but they were productive in the sense that the Yankees weren’t doomed to lose whenever they pitched.

But here’s the thing–both of these pitchers already had accomplished resumes. Garcia and Colon were both two-time All-Stars. Garcia led the league in ERA in 2001. Colon was the 2005 America League Cy Young winner. At one point or another, both were effective pitchers. If either could recapture just a glimpse of their former glory, the Yankees would be more than set. With a division title to show for it, the Yankees certainly did a decent job.

Boston’s Problem

Roy Oswalt is apparently not happening. Instead we are reading about Carlos Silva and Aaron Cook coming to Boston. Fans are being assured not to worry– after all that this is what the Yankees did and look what happened to them! The only problem is that there is no truth to that whatsoever.

Most starting pitchers don’t get significantly better in their late thirties. As seen with the Yankees, Colon and Garcia had at one time been great pitchers. Their older, injury-prone selves were not going to pitch any better than they did seven years ago, but maybe they could accomplish just a fraction of that. The ceiling was high, albeit unlikely to reach.

On the other hand, these pitchers signed by the Red Sox have always been pretty darn terrible. Aaron Cook has only won more than ten games twice. He’s never thrown 100 strikeouts. Carlos Silva has had an ERA under 4.00 only two times. In addition to being insane, Vincente Padilla has a career ERA of 4.31, and has never had an above average season. My point? These pitchers are horrendous and always have been. Cook and Silva are 32. Padilla is 34. They are not going to get better. As a result, their ceiling is too low for even Dustin Pedroia. None of these three will ever be a decent major league pitcher, just as they never have. The Sox are better off keeping the ancient Tim Wakefield. I honestly think a Daisuke Matsuzaka or John Lackey months away from recovery could pitch better.

Ladies and gentlemen, this is the 2012 rotation you can look forward to!

What to do?

It goes without saying that most low risk/low reward signings don’t pan out. For every Freddy Garcia, there is a John Smoltz or a Brad Penny. But the Yankees only needed Garcia and Colon to be not awful. The Red Sox don’t have the same luxury of only depending on mediocrity. Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buccholz are not the most durable players around. The truth is, in addition to consistency, Boston needs some productivity.

If they want to turn to low-risk signings, they should be looking at starters who were actually talented at some point. Instead of Cook, Silva, and Padilla they should set their sight on Ben Sheets, Brandon Webb, and Rich Harden. Those names are coming from obscurity, but so are the excuses of starting pitching the Red Sox have signed so far.

As a last thought, Roy Oswalt is reportedly seeking $8 MM (Chump change for Boston). I know the math doesn’t work out perfectly, but at one point, do all these small scale deals approach or surpass $8MM? Sox management is trying to avoid spending pennies and it makes no sense. Maybe if we all agree to purchase Oswalt jerseys, it will compensate for his salary and the resulting luxury tax? In the meantime, let’s get excited for Vincente Padilla.

This may take a while…