It took three hours and 27 minutes of a rain delay and then seven innings of actual baseball Thursday night for history to repeat itself, but repeat it did. Josh Beckett beat CC Sabathia for the third time this season, and the Red Sox scored seven runs in the top of the seventh to beat the Yankees, 8-3, and complete their second sweep of the season in New York. The Red Sox now own a two-game lead in the AL East.

Red Sox Send 10 to Plate in Seventh

Sabathia and the long rain delay combined to make the Red Sox look asleep through the first six innings. They got a baserunner to third only in the first inning (Jacoby Ellsbury, off a stolen base and a throwing error by Yankees catcher Francisco Cervelli), and they went 1-2-3 in the fifth and sixth. Down 2-0 in the top of the seventh, the bats finally woke up.

David Ortiz led off with a single through the infield that a shift might have contained, and Jed Lowrie ripped the very next pitch down the right-field line past a diving Mark Texeira (0-4).

Right fielder Nick Swisher also dove to try and stop the ball, but couldn’t get to it. By the time he got up and fired the ball in, Lowrie was all the way to third with an RBI triple. Mike Cameron tied the game with a double to left, then scored on a Jacoby Ellsbury single to right to make it 3-2 Red Sox.

A two-out single up the middle by Adrian Gonzalez made it 4-2 Red Sox and chased Sabathia from the game. Reliever David Robertson fared no better, however, giving up an RBI single to Kevin Youkilis and a two-RBI double that Ortiz hit to the gap in left-center to make it 7-2.

The Red Sox and Yankees each traded runs in the ninth, on a Gonzalez RBI double and a Derek Jeter ground out.

Every Red Sox player had at least one hit Thursday, with Ellsbury, Gonzalez and Ortiz each hitting two. Gonzalez and Ortiz each drove in two, and a different Red Sox scored each of Boston’s eight runs.

Beckett Out-Duels Sabathia

After one inning, it looked as if the Yankees were finally going to beat Beckett and the Red Sox. Sabathia had stranded Ellsbury at third by striking out Gonzalez and Youkilis, and Beckett hit Jeter to lead off the bottom of the first. Beckett then threw a 3-1 fastball through the heart of the strike zone. Center fielder Curtis Granderson jumped all over it, rocketing it into the seats in right field for the 2-0 Yankees lead.

Granderson’s home run was just one of four hits Beckett allowed. He got into trouble again in the third by loading the bases with two outs, but he escaped by getting second baseman Robinson Cano to foul out to Youkilis. Beckett finished the game giving up two runs on four hits, two walks and six strikeouts in seven innings. He struggled with his command, hitting three batters (to which Sabathia retaliated in the fourth by pegging Ortiz relatively harmlessly in the leg) and frequently missing high and wide of the right batter’s box.

Despite his struggles, Beckett lasted long enough for the Red Sox bats to come alive. Red Sox hitters drove up Sabathia’s pitch count, and Sabathia faltered in the seventh. Beckett picked up his fifth win, and Sabathia his fourth loss, snapping a personal four-game winning streak.

The Red Sox went 7-15 with runners in scoring position, and the Yankees went 0-7. That’s a recipe for defeat no matter who’s playing.

© Matt Goisman for Sports of Boston, 2011. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Red Sox, Top Story.

If you like a challenge, sifting through the dozens of major league outfielders and trying to project their 2011 fantasy value should be right up your alley.

There are thinner positions in the big leagues heading into this season… shortstop and third base, namely… but I always find the outfield to be the toughest to gauge. I think it has a lot to do with knowing how important it is to nail your outfield picks. Think about it… in most leagues, you draft only one catcher and one player at each infield position. You mess up and draft a loser at second base? It only leaves one hole in your lineup. If you don’t hit on a few of your outfielder spots, well you can kiss fantasy baseball glory goodbye. Most leagues have anywhere between three and five starting outfielder spots. That means up to half of your offensive starting lineup could be reliant upon your outfield talent. Yikes.

But of course, you can’t draft five outfielders at the very top of your draft and think your ticket to the fantasy playoffs is punched automatically. If you do that, have fun with the likes of Matt Wieters, Billy Butler, Chone Figgins, Starlin Castro, and Mark Reynolds manning your infield, not to mention the load of question marks you’ll have for pitching. So you have to really do your homework on this position and find some diamonds in the rough.

Luckily for you, I have done the homework and I have found you some gems. I’ve picked out eight outfielders that should be available in the mid-to-late rounds of your draft. By season’s end, I’m confident this 8-pack will make you look like Mensa members for drafting them.

Diamonds in the Rough

Nick Swisher, NYY

In his two years playing in the Bronx, Swisher’s production, especially his power production, has been remarkably consistent. With 29 homeruns in each of his two seasons as a Yankee, you have to love getting that kind of offense in the middle rounds of your draft. His batting average peaked at .288 last season, a career best, so while you can’t expect him to duplicate that this year, it’s not unreasonable to see “The Swish” somewhere in the .270’s for 2011. His hitter-friendly ballpark surely helps his situation as well.

Adam Jones, BAL

At just 25, Baltimore’s Adam Jones hasn’t yet reached his full potential, but I really feel he is poised to make a huge leap in 2011. He’ll be part of an improved Oriole lineup, with the additions of Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee, and those veterans should help keep the young Jones focused on improving his game. His strikeout numbers are a tad high, but if he can ratchet up his power numbers another level and get into the 25-homer range, the fantasyheads that draft him will be handsomely rewarded.

Ryan Raburn, DET

Raburn is penciled in as the Tigers’ starting left fielder for 2011, and he’s off to a great start in spring training to help solidify that starting spot. Spring is not his season normally, as Raburn’s been a notoriously slow starter the past few years, but if you can be patient with him, he should heat up for you as the year goes along. Over the last 70 games of 2010, Raburn’s power shined through, hitting 13 homeruns in that stretch. As a full-timer for the Tigers this season, a 20-homer total is a near certainty. Last season, he also played 21 games in the infield, at first, second, and third base, so if he’s able to add a few extra positions to his fantasy eligibility, that’ll just make him that much more valuable to your squad.

Jason Kubel, MIN

Beyond the high strikeout totals, there’s not a lot to dislike about Minnesota’s Jason Kubel. The only question mark I do assign to him right now is how much playing time he’ll see. With the re-signing of DH Jim Thome, the presumed health of 1B Justin Morneau, and the trio of Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, and Delmon Young entrenched in the outfield, where Kubel fits in is up for discussion. He’s appeared in at least 140 games in each of the last three seasons though, and with the production he’s capable of, there’s no doubt he’ll get his at-bats. With more than 20 homers and 90 RBIs in each of the last two seasons, as long as Kubel cracks the lineup more often than not, think of him in the last few rounds of your draft.

Colby Rasmus, STL

Everything I’ve seen and heard about this kid has made me truly, “cuckoo for Colby.” He’s off to a red-hot start in spring training, which has prompted talk from Cardinals’ manager Tony LaRussa of considering Rasmus as a top candidate to bat second in the St. Louis order, right in front of Mr. Albert Pujols, the consensus top pick across almost every fantasy draft I’ve seen these last few weeks. If he lands that spot, Rasmus would be line for a huge jump in production, building off already impressive stats from 2010 that saw him hit 23 homeruns and rack up 66 RBIs as a part-timer. The sky’s the limit for this potential breakout candidate… the only question is whether or not 2011 is the year he makes himself a household name.

Carlos Lee, HOU

There’s a mixed bag of reviews on the now 34-year-old Lee heading into the 2011 campaign. Some “experts” say his down year of 2010 is the beginning of the end for the slugger, while others think he’ll spend 2011 showing the nay-sayers that last year was just an aberration. I tend to side with the latter point of view. Houston’s lineup isn’t anything to get crazy over, but Lee will sit right in the middle of it, and he’s still a threat for 25 homeruns and 100 RBIs, which you won’t get from your average fantasy outfielder. He’ll likely gain eligibility at first base this season too, which can help add some versatility to your fantasy lineup as the season moves along. Everyone might not be in Lee’s corner heading into this season, but I am… draft him with confidence.

Jose Tabata, PIT

Not since the Barry Bonds-Andy Van Slyke-Bobby Bonilla era have I been so high on the fantasy value on the Pittsburgh Pirates’ roster. Between Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez in the infield, and Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata out in the outfield, the future is finally looking brighter in the Steel City, at least in terms of offense. The young Tabata finally got the chance to shine at the big league level in 2010, racking up over 400 at-bats in his rookie season with Pittsburgh, after toiling away in the Yankees’ minor league system. Pirates manager Clint Hurdle is considering Tabata for the team’s leadoff spot, with the thought of moving McCutchen down to third in the order. If that comes to fruition, Tabata’s totals should take off, with his run-scoring and base-stealing ability already strong. His batting average won’t hurt you either, building off a solid .299 mark in 2010.

Drew Stubbs, CIN

The Reds were a big surprise in 2010, and that had a lot to do with contributions from relative unknowns like Drew Stubbs. Here are two interesting stats for you about the Cincinnati outfielder… only two players in 2010 had at least 20 HRs, 30 SBs, and 90 runs scored: Hanley Ramirez and Drew Stubbs. Here’s another one though… only 19 players in MLB history have had seasons with 30+ SBs and 150+ strikeouts, and one of them was Stubbs last year. So there’s plenty of upside, if you can offset the high strikeout numbers and relatively low batting average with other members of your fantasy team. That being said, Stubbs will be drafted in most fantasy leagues this season, and I recommend you being the guy (or gal, ladies are always welcome!) to snatch him up.

© Brian Kintz for Sports of Boston, 2011. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Fantasy, Featured.

As titles go, Moneyball is a bit of a misnomer. When one thinks of the term “moneyball,” one might be inclined to think of playing baseball by spending lots of money. But the reality is that Moneyball, Michael Lewis’s 2003 bestseller, is about a general manager’s (Billy Beane if the Oakland Athletics) quest to put a winning team together by spending AS LITTLE money as possible (required because the Athletics ownership is portrayed as incredibly tightfisted). This is not in itself noteworthy, as there are plenty of sports franchises with low payrolls. What makes Beane so interesting is that he actually managed to DO it, winning more games than any team but the Atlanta Braves across the several seasons leading up the book’s publication and went to the playoffs every year from 2000 to 2003, all while dealing with one of the lowest payrolls in the MLB. All of it culminates in the 2003 season, wherein the Athletics break the AL record for most consecutive wins. The book splits its time between Lewis’s time with the Athletics management team (specifically GM Beane and his assistant Paul DePodesta) during the 2003 season and his research into the history of sabermetric analysis, which is the method by which Beane goes about trying to determine what players could be drafted, signed, or acquired via trade that would both help the team and not break the bank (or even shake it a bit).

Sabermetrics in Summary

The basic argument of sabermetrics, a statistical evaluation system more or less founded by Bill James and named after the Society of American Baseball Research, is that the offense’s job is not to hit but rather to not make an out (scoring runs is its secondary objective). Therefore, anything that increases the likelihood of making an out, such as bunting, sacrificing, and stealing bases, works against a player. Anything that gets a player on base, such as hits or walks (not considered statistically important until the emergence of sabermentrics), is valued. Older statistics such as batting average, total hits and total RBIs, are considered to be old-fashioned, giving way to more statistically indicative numbers, especially on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Statisticians such as Bill believe that these newer methods of evaluation, even when applied backwards to past teams, reveal far more accurately whether a player has contributed or will contribute to a team’s offensive success.

Criticism of Sabermetrics

Moneyball portrays other teams as either ignorant of, or at least not particularly interested in, sabermetric performance evaluation, and thus Beane seems to have an advantage over other teams, even those with much higher payrolls, such as the New York Yankees. The book is the story of one general manager using sabermetrics to try and find those players that other teams forgot about or passed over that he can get cheap. For Beane, himself a “victim” of older methods of evaluation (he was a high school phenom who was convinced not to go to college by the Mets and never learned how to deal with failure), trying to do this often causes him to take flack from those around him, both within the organization (in the form of the scouting department, longstanding proponents of the older, “five tool” style of evaluation) and without (from other managers, who consider him ruthless and conniving, and from the press, who think his strategies can’t translate to playoff success). Lewis describes the MLB front offices and scouting departments collectively forming a Club, and the press as its Women’s Auxiliary. They see sabermetrics as attacking their way of doing things, and so they lash out against it. Other general managers don’t like working with Beane, and the press constantly disparages him. Their biggest argument is always that, if sabermetrics is such a successful means of evaluation, then why haven’t the Athletics won the World Series since 1989?

To the press’s credit, Billy Beane never comes up with a satisfactory answer to that. All he can say is that with so few games, luck becomes more of a larger factor than in the regular season, and that anything is really possible. That may be true, but if sabermetrics is designed to minimize luck (as Beane says), it is reasonable to argue that it is a system that can’t bring home championships. And while from a business perspective winning regular season games might lead to economic success, repeatedly falling short of a championship will inevitably hurt ticket sales in future seasons (assuming you don’t own a franchise like the Boston Red Sox, which sells out every home game regardless of the product put on the field). Most sports franchises can be depicted as sine-waves: high periods and low periods. Teams only have so many good years before they naturally begin to decline, and it’s championships during the good years that maintain ticket sales through the bad times. Sabermetrics, if the only example is the early 21st Century Oakland Athletics, might not be such a terrific system after all.

Billy Beane: Revolutionary

Sports go through revolutions, same as political systems or religions. The first major revolution was racial integration, allowing a previously excluded group to play in the major leagues. The next was gender integration, as symbolized by IX, and the realization and acceptance that the drive for athletic success lies as much in the female psyche as it does in the male psyche. Right now, we are still dealing with the chemical revolution: the integration of chemical additives into athletic training, and the determination of what is a fair and healthy additive and what is not, and how best to police its use. For Billy Beane, Moneyball is the story of his experience with the final sports revolution: the integration of technology into athletics. Lewis finishes his book with a description of athletic organizations rejecting sabermetrics in part because they think of sabermetricians as skinny, hunched-over intellectuals typing into computer screens all day. He describes it as a classic case of jock versus nerd, and there is some truth to that. Any time a revolution happens, turmoil and upheaval follow in its wake. The same is true of Moneyball. Beane suffered incredible backlash due to its publication, but that’s because it was a new idea being introduced with force into the populace. Whenever this happens, those in power (other general managers and the press) seek to squash it before it takes permanent hold and forces them to change or die (not literally).

Beane’s personality also does not help his case. As smart as he comes off at times, he also comes off as maniacal. He tries incessantly to insert himself into the middle of an Expos-Red Sox Cliff Floyd trade so that he can force the Red Sox to give him Kevin Youkilis, whom he has coveted since Youkilis was draft-eligible. The Expos manager seems to sniff out Beane’s plan and does not push the three-way deal, and the Floyd trade goes off cleanly. More importantly, he seems to talk himself out of signing a $12.5 million, five-year deal with the Red Sox, for reasons that still make no sense, even after reading through the entire book and getting a crash course in Beane’s psychology. He had the opportunity to be paid more than any GM in history, work for an ownership that would both spend big money to sign players AND believed in the value of sabermetrics (John Henry had long been a Bill James fan and was a frequent fantasy baseball champion), and get to deal with a press “so reliably venomous that it was impossible to distinguish the poison directed at the new regime from the poison they’d aimed at every other person who had the temerity to pass through Fenway Park” (294-295), meaning that the fans would be unlikely to turn on him if his strategy did not immediately work out. This sounds like an ideal environment for a general manager, and yet Billy Beane declined it without ever giving a satisfactory answer. His character is somewhat maddening.

Boston: The Revolution at Work

Despite the success of the Athletics, much of it might be because they were using sabermetrics before anyone else did. Now other teams are using it, AND they have higher payrolls, meaning it is that much harder to find bargain players. The Red Sox are one such team that has both learned from Billy Beane’s example (they hired Theo Epstein, another statistics-savvy Ivy Leaguer like Paul DePodesta) and put the money into realizing the idea. To this end, they began employing Bill James as a consultant as of 2003. The combination of sabermetric evaluation and paying top-dollar for players has led to two world championships and a rebuilt farm system that has produced aces, All-Stars, rookies of the year, and MVPs. Boston might be the best example of sabermetrics being used effectively. While most fans will probably never see the stats that guide Theo Epstein’s moves, it is quite likely that the 2004 Nomar Garciaparra trade was based in a sabermetric analysis of what Nomar was bringing to the team offensively and whether that could be replaced with lesser players who could also improve the team’s defense. The move paid dividends in the postseason, and the rest is history.

This is not to say that sabermetrics is the be-all and end-all method of evaluation. There are still players out there who scouts drool over, who they see as potential superstars at a young age, and then go on to great success. Hanley Ramirez was always lauded for his “five tools” (hit for average, hit for power, field, run, throw), and he has gone on to a batting title, three All-Star selections, and a Rookie of the Year award. This is a player for whom the old methods of evaluation have proven correct. And not every draft choice of Billy Beane has been a goldmine. While Youkilis has won a Gold Glove and been named to two All-Star Games, and Nick Swisher (his first pick in the 2002 draft) has won a World Series with the Yankees and made the All-Star game, Jeremy Brown, another first-round draft pick in 2002, never had more than a cup of coffee in the majors. Like “five tool” evaluation, sabermetric evaluation is not the same as fortune-telling. Nothing will ever prove definitively whether or not a prospect will work out or a free agent will help or hurt a team. That’s the problem with analyzing humans: as much as we tend to behave in patterns, sometimes we don’t. A player who bats .333 for a year doesn’t get one hit every game. That’s never happened before, not even close (the longest hit streak ever comprised just over one third of the season, and even THAT hasn’t been managed in nearly 70 years). Hitters sometimes get a hit, sometimes they get more, sometimes they don’t hit at all. If enough players get enough hits at the same time, that team will generally win. The best recipe for success probably lies in some combination of evaluative methods.

Does Moneyball Stand the Test of Time?

The Oakland Athletics have declined mightily since Moneyball’s publication. Since 2004, they have only made the playoffs once, getting swept in the ALCS by the Detroit Tigers. Their recent seasons have been unspectacular at best, not breaking the 95-win mark at all since 2003. Since 2006, they have finished in third or fourth place in their division every single season. As of Monday, they are in third place in their division, eight games back and 14.5 out of the Wild Card. As I said before, teams go through high and low periods periodically. The Athletics are definitely in a low period now, and fans are probably wishing that those early-decade teams had brought home a ring or two to go with all their 100-win seasons.

It can be said that we are living in the post-Moneyball era of baseball. Most teams now accept sabermetrics and at least employ one sabermetric analyst. The Oakland Athletics’ decline can be as much attributed to richer franchises USING sabermetrics as it can to some kind of conceptual error IN sabermetrics. Still, Moneyball is an amazing piece of sports journalism. Lewis tells a story of a revolution in baseball and clearly sets out both how the revolutionaries succeeded and how the baseball world tried to stop them. It is a fascinating look at baseball as it was at the turn of the new millennium. It is incredibly well-researched and well-paced. You will be fascinated by characters like Billy Beane and Bill James, and you will understand their feelings of rejection by their peers. Lewis presents a strong, concise point, and he uses the 2002 Athletics as his argument. It is incredibly convincing, and I think baseball since publication has proven him right. Reading Moneyball, I could feel myself getting angry at some of its posits. That’s a sign of good writing, when it elicits an emotional reaction. As I read on, I became more and more swayed by Lewis’s and Beane’s (even though Beane is not an author, his strategy is what Lewis defends) arguments. As I watched a baseball game the night I finished it, statistics began to swim in my mind next to the players on screen. Moneyball will change the way you think about baseball. No greater accomplishment in sports writing can be achieved.

© Matt Goisman for Sports of Boston, 2010. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Now!, Opinion.

It seems like just yesterday that Johnny Damon was patrolling the outfield at Fenway Park in a Red Sox uniform, slamming into anything, and everything, face-first while attempting to catch any ball coming his way. We loved watching him make ridiculous catches and knew he would set the right tone for the game as our lead-off guy. We loved his hits, his heart, and most definitely, we loved his hair.

The fact that he resembled one of our favorite biblical characters would lead many to believe he was a prophet, sent here to end that dreaded 86-year World Championship drought that plagued Red Sox Nation. He was our savior, delivering a game-clinching grand slam in Game 7 of the 2004 ALCS in one of the greatest comebacks in sports history. I’ll admit, I still have my “What Would Johnny Do?” t-shirt tucked away somewhere in my house, but have not once worn it since that ill-fated day: December 20, 2005.

The day our Johnny became their Johnny.  The day he traded in his pretty locks and facial hair for pinstripes.  The day we branded Damon with the Scarlet “T” for traitor. When the Sox refused to offer Damon a contract over three years, he seized his opportunity for a four-year, $52-million deal with the Yankees. We were in shock, and revolted by the fact that Damon had turned over to the dark side.

The amount of booing that went on anytime Damon set foot in Fenway wearing a Yankees uniform is a great representation of how much we actually  loved him.  We wouldn’t waste our valuable time and vocal chords on a player that we didn’t value so much. He was a key member of the 2004 dream team, and we wanted him to love Boston as much as we loved him.

But the past is in the past.  Red Sox Nation would eventually move on.  No. 18 would eventually end up on Daisuke Matsuzaka’s back and the Sox would go on to win another World Series without the help of Damon.

TURNING THE PAGE: DAMON IN DETROIT

Yes, the River Damon is flowing freely underneath Red Sox Nation Bridge.

On Friday, the Sox will open a three-game series in Detroit and we will get our first look at Damon in a Tigers uniform.

Damon, who used to be a heavy hitter for the two most recognizable teams in baseball, is now out-shined by a rejuvenated Miguel Cabrera and skilled former Yankee farmhand Austin Jackson, who are sporting the top two batting averages in the American League, respectively. Johnny’s average is just shy of .300, and he’s only notched twp home runs and 15 RBI. With 20 strikeouts, his bat seems to be a bit slower.

Still, I think Detroit is a good fit for him.  Even with age being the biggest factor, he is still one of the most productive players on the team. With Jim Leyland, Damon is playing for a manager that values veteran leadership.

BIG MISTAKE FOR THE YANKEES?

If he had stayed with the Yankees, there’s no doubt in my mind he would see significantly less playing time.  Four or five years ago, Damon might have been able to compete with Nick Swisher and Brett Gardner, but not now.  Both Swisher and Gardner are batting over .300 and they both have the speed and athleticism needed for the expansive Yankee Stadium outfield.  The Yankees absolutely made the right decision in letting him go.

For now.  But what happens when the leaves turn colors and the post-season arrives? Who can forget Damon’s clutch heroics in last year’s Fall Classic? The base running play in the pivotal Game 5 was the offensive version of Jeter’s miracle play at the plate against Oakland in the 2001 playoffs.  Anyone seen Jason Giambi lately?

Damon has the unique ability to ignore pressure.  He was having an abysmal season in 2004, until Games 6 and 7.  Are Swisher and Gardner capable of the same?  We’ll see.

SHOULD DAMON HAVE KEPT HIS RED SOX?

Some wonder whether Theo should have made a play for Damon this past off-season.  Before the season started, before I even knew who Darnell McDonald was, I would have said yes, but my mind has since changed. I was nervous how our outfield would pan out this year after losing Jason Bay, but I have to say, I’m pleasantly surprised.

Even in the absence of Jacoby Ellsbury, our best outfielder, Jeremy Hermida and McDonald prove to be pulling their weight.  While McDonald is only sporting a .230 average, he seems to be able to get those clutch hits at the right time.

What will happen when McDonald has been around the league once?  Teams will surely adjust to him.  There is a reason that he has been a career minor-leaguer. On the other hand, Hermida seems to be approaching the expectations that came with being a first-round pick a few years back.

Whether or not Damon will get another year out of the Tigers remains to be seen.  But if not, perhaps he’ll consider bringing the shaggy Johnny back and pursue a career as a Geico caveman.

© Katy Fitzpatrick for Sports of Boston, 2010. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Red Sox.

Check out Clay’s singing skills below:

© KC Downey for Sports of Boston, 2010. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Now!, Red Sox.

Perhaps the plane tickets were wrong. Perhaps there was some baggage-related mix-up. Whatever happened, the Red Sox offense never arrived in New York, losing the fourth game of this crucial late-season series to the Yankees 5-2. Damon and Teixeira’s back-to-back home runs in the eighth inning — off Daniel Bard, no less — may have ended Boston’s division title aspirations, while Nick Swisher’s two-run single later in the same inning sealed the game.  Ladies and gents, this was ugly.

The Red Sox squandered a sterling performance by Jon Lester, who gave up one run through seven, while striking out seven. The offensive anemia has been accompanied by an uncharacteristic profligacy in the Boston bullpen, as Bard and Okajima gave up the critical runs.

Frankly, Sox fans, this was tough to watch, as Boston took an unlikely lead in the top of the 8th inning, only to watch it decisively slip away just three outs later.  That’s four of the last four the Red Sox have lost to New York. The focus has shifted to the wild-card, make no mistake.

Sox Stud of the Game:

Tied between Victor Martinez and Jon Lester, as the former teased us with prospects of victory, and the latter was cruelly denied a win for an excellent performance.

Sox Dud of the Game:

Well, he doesn’t play for the Red Sox, but Nick Swisher’s an asshole, so let’s give it to him, what with his excellent plays in the field for the Yanks. Additionally, he tried to play-act his way on base for a phantom hit-by-pitch. Then he hit a two-run single. Screw that guy.

© Jon for Sports of Boston, 2009. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Red Sox, Top Story.

OFFENSE

Jorge Cantu (1B,3B), Florida Marlins: I hope you didn’t avoid Cantu on draft day thinking he was a flash in the pan. His 4 HR and 14 RBI last week say otherwise. His nine hits brought his average up to .333 and his 25 RBI is tied for 4th most in the majors.

Carl Crawford (LF), Tampa Bay Rays: Only one of Crawford’s 10 hits went for extra bases, and that was a double. However, Crawford makes it here this week for his speed. He totaled an outlandish 11 SB last week with 6 coming in one game (against the Sox if you recall).

Evan Longoria (3B), Tampa Bay Rays: Sophomore slump? Not for Longoria! Longoria tied Jorge Cantu fo the lead in RBI last week with 14 and he added 2 HR to his season total. The rest of the stat sheet included 11 hits, 9 runs, and 4 doubles.

Adam Jones (CF), Baltimore Orioles: After years of hype, he seems to have put it together…so far. Jones filled in all your categories with 8 runs, 10 hits, 2 HR, 2 RBI, and 2 SB. Would you have guessed that Jones leads the majors in runs scored (28)?

Nick Swisher (1B,LF,CF,RF), New York Yankees: In only four games played, Sir Swish hit 3 HR and had 6 RBI. In addition to that, he scored 8 runs and walked 4 times. If only he hadn’t been hit by that pitch. Oh well!

PITCHING

Dan Haren (SP), Arizona Diamondbacks: Despite being 2nd in the NL with a 1.47 ERA, Haren only has 3 wins. Well, two of them came last week on the heels of his first complete game of the season and 21 K in 17.0 IP. Haren has at least 9 K in three straight starts.

Justin Verlander (SP), Detroit Tigers: Is he finally back? Well you be the judge. At the moment, just revel in his two wins and 20 K last week. The 11 K games against Cleveland was the most he has had in a single game since June 23rd of 2007.

Trevor Hoffman (RP), Milwaukee Brewers: Hoffman made his return last week and immediately pleased owners with 3 saves and 5 K in 4 IP. Don’t underestimate him even at age 42.

Matt Garza (SP), Tampa Bay Rays: Garza’s one start was nearly perfect. I mean that literally. He had a perfect game through six innings against the Red Sox until it was finally broken up. Garza owners had to settle for the win and 10 K instead.

Johnny Cueto (SP), Cincinnati Reds: Remember last season when Cueto was the big hype pitcher coming out of Spring Training? It looks like he is cashing in on that hype a year later (hey, better late than never). Cueto’s two starts yielded a win and 14 K in 15 IP. Cueto is currently 4th in the Majors with a 1.65 ERA.

Why Should I Give a Crap About These Guys?

Jose Guillen (LF,RF), Kansas City Royals: Guillen made his return from the DL on 4/25 and has already launched 3 HR. He has given owners 11 RBI and a respectable .289 avg in his short time as well.

Mike Fontenot (2B,3B), Chicago Cubs: Fontenot has been seeing the ball better recently with 4 HR and 8 RBI last week. He caught fire at the end of April and it is leading into May by hitting safely in 10 of his last 11 games.

Scott Richmond (SP), Toronto Blue Jays: Richmond has very quietly won four straight starts compiling 22 K in 26.1 IP during that time. How many other 37% owned (Yahoo! leagues) pitchers are 4-0 with a 2.67 ERA in your free agent pool? Exactly. Grab him while you can.

Sports of Boston Friends and Family League

• I remain in 5th after a close 11-12-1 loss.
• Last season’s champ “A-Roid” edged out a 13-10-1 victory to remain in first place.
• SoB’s Jeff leads all SoB staff members by sitting in 2nd place.
• Recent pickups include: Kurt Suzuki, Brian Bannister, Russell Branyan, Edwin Jackson, Dexter Fowler, and Kendry Morales.

© Pete Rampino for Sports of Boston, 2009. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Fantasy, Featured.

The Stars of Week 1

OFFENSE

Evan Longoria (3B), Tampa Bay Rays: The Tampa Bay 3B decided to pick up right where he left off in his Rookie of the Year season of 2008 by leading the Majors with 5 HR and accumulating 10 RBI. He has at least two hits in six straight games but the only sour note for me is that he has not drawn a walk all season.

Adam Lind (LF), Toronto Blue Jays: A nice sleeper on draft day, Lind finally has the starting job in Toronto and currently leads the Majors with 12 RBI. Lind has flashed power with three of his 12 hits going for home runs and has scored five runs.

Nick Swisher (1B,LF,CF,RF), New York Yankees: Even though he is platooning with Xavier Nady, Swisher has been crushing the ball. No matter what categories your league has, Swisher helped your team. Six of his eight hits went for extra bases (3 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR) and he even had 9 RBI and 7 runs in his limited role.

Alfonso Soriano (LF), Chicago Cubs: Proving that he doesn’t need 2B eligibility to be valuable, Soriano gave owners power and speed with 4 HR and 2 SB while hitting a respectable .286. To finish the week off, Soriano had multi-RBI games in two straight contests.

Albert Pujols (1B), St. Louis Cardinals: Pujols was hitting very well all week but was not producing big stats in other areas until Saturday when he exploded for 2 HR and 7 RBI to give him 3 HR and 9 RBI total on the season. We might as well mention my favorite part: 6 walks.

PITCHING

Josh Johnson (SP), Florida Marlins: JJ looked excellent in his starts compiling 15 K in 15.2 innings. He walked just one batter in his two starts and picked up his first complete game of the season on his way to a 2-0 record.

Johan Santana (SP), New York Mets: Despite allowing only one earned run in two starts, Santana is sporting a 1-1 record. However, he has 20 K in 12.2 innings and a 0.71 ERA.

Heath Bell (RP), San Diego Padres: Taking over for Trevor Hoffman has proved to be quite easy for Bell as he picked up three saves without giving up a run and striking out four batters in 2.2 innings.

Erik Bedard (SP), Seattle Mariners: Bedard’s second year with Seattle is already looking better than his first. Bedard is 1-0 on the young season with a 15:1 K:BB ratio and 10.13 K/9. Gotta love those contract years.

Aaron Harang (SP), Cincinnati Reds: All signs pointed to a continuation of Harang’s terrible 2008 season, but he is proving everybody wrong in his first two starts. Harang is 1-1 with a 0.64 ERA and 11 K in 14.0 innings. Harang also has a complete game to his credit this season.

Why Should I Give a Crap About These Guys?

Kevin Milwood (SP), Texas Rangers: Milwood has looked spectacular in his two starts with a 1-0 record and 11 K. He went at least seven innings in each of his outings and walked only one batter. This could be Milwood’s last season in Texas unless the Rangers pick up his option so, he could just be playing for a big payday.

Emilio Bonifacio (2B,3B), Florida Marlins: The new leadoff hitter in Florida is tearing the cover off the ball by collecting a league-leading 14 hits. His 4 SB and 2B eligibility also increase his value.

Marco Scutaro (2B,3B,SS), Toronto Blue Jays: Scutaro has been a quiet contributor in Week 1 with 10 hits including 2 HR and 5 RBI. He has scored an impressive 10 runs thanks to his patience at the plate (6 walks).

Sports of Boston Friends and Family League

• I am starting the season off in fine fashion by sitting in 7th place with an 11-13 loss to SoB’s Chris. I certainly can’t blame my pitching staff (69.0 innings, 2.35 ERA).
• Who is in first place? Why last season’s champion of course! Team “A-Roid” won 16-7-1 over our friend “wheredidyoucomefrom.”
• The SoB Crew: Mike (2nd), Jeff (3rd), Chris (6th), Pete (7th), and KC (9th).
• Recent pickups include: Freddy Sanchez, Brandon Inge, Elvis Andrus, Nyjer Morgan, Akinori Iwamura, Scott Rolen, and Jeremy Guthrie.

© Pete Rampino for Sports of Boston, 2009. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Fantasy, Featured.

With that somber note out of the way, the great thing about the first week of baseball is all the wackiness that comes from small sample sizes.

NL West

MLB showed its wackiness in the NL West, where San Diego, who no one expects to compete, is currently occupying first place thanks to strong pitching from Jake Peavy and Chris Young. Manny Ramirez has received some Barry Bonds treatment this week as well, which if it continues, will also validate my point about AL pitching being better. After all, there were very few intentional walks that I can remember, for Manny in his games against the AL East. And using David Pinto’s Day By Day Database, I was able to come up with 61 intentional walks in his near nine years against AL East competition.

The Giants are in last and Tim Lincecum has had a rough start to the season. On the other hand, Matt Cain’s first start was very much what people have been expecting out of him. Arizona, who many expected to compete, may have a rougher road with Brandon Webb going on the DL for his shoulder. The offense has only scored 23 runs also, so if the offense gets going, the team may be able to overcome the short loss of Webb.

NL Central

In the NL Central, the biggest surprise may be that the Pirates have already won three games. Albert Pujols and the Cardinals have stormed out into first place and Pujols clearly should not have had Tommy John surgery so that he could’ve appeared more mortal-like.

The Cubs are behind them in second and may have already received their first Milton Bradley injury to complement Lou Piniella having chosen the wrong guy to close out games. But hey, Rich Harden’s arm hasn’t fallen off yet. The Milwaukee Brewers are in for a long season with the loss of Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia and not much of a bullpen either. Their offense, though, should at least make for some entertaining games, especially if Ryan Braun develops as expected.

The Reds received some solid starts from Johnny Cueto and Bronson Arroyo, but that offense may qualify for the scrappiest of the post-1994 era and will definitely keep their pitchers’ win totals low.

NL East

In the NL East, Washington is feeling the effects of Jim Bowden’s roster construction, even after his departure from the organization. They are the last team in search of their first win and given their starting pitching, it could be a month before it comes. But in a positive note for the team, Nick Johnson’s bones have not decomposed.

The two teams who battled over the division last year, the Phillies and Mets, have gotten off to a bit of a dull start. With the Mets, their starting pitching behind Johan Santana is definitely going to be a bit of a rollercoaster. However, Philadelphia’s pitching is even worse, especially if Cole Hamels is not healthy. Chase Utley has provided hope to Yankees fans that A-Rod’s hip won’t be a big impact on his production when he returns. Ryan Church has recovered finally from his concussion issues and is performing well on the field again.

Florida and Atlanta are tied for the lead in the division and are doing so with very good pitching. Of note is Josh Johnson, who is now nearly two years removed from Tommy John surgery and has great stuff and showed better command upon returning last year. Emilio Bonifacio, Hanley Ramirez, Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson are all members of the “Small samples make rate stats look ridiculous” club. Emilio Bonifacio will probably have the roughest return to earth of the four.

AL West

In the AL West, the Mariners have jumped out to an early lead in the division. Of particular note is Erik Bedard who is looking to be healthy for the first time since arriving in Seattle. His start Sunday looked much like the Erik Bedard we saw in Baltimore. If Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva can be half-decent and Bedard does pitch well, in a weak division (and given the pitching injuries Anaheim and Oakland have had, it is weakened), Seattle can compete. But that’s asking a bit much, considering that the offense is still a bit subpar.

Oakland is running out a lot of young pitchers thanks to injuries and the lack of development of some of the starters is reflected in Oakland’s record. The Angels will be trying to float in the water until Lackey, Santana and Escobar return.

In Texas they found out that trotting out Kris Benson’s wife to the mound with him will not make hitters perform any worse when he throws meatballs. Their offense is also not quite as strong without Milton Bradley, who had the team’s highest on base percentage last year.

AL Central

In the AL Central, the Indians finally got their first win Sunday. Like the Brewers, they too are missing Sabathia. Also, they’re missing Cliff Lee having a career year. Well, sometimes a fluke really is a fluke. While they’re not as bad as they looked this week, their starting pitching depth will present problems.

The rest of the division is all around .500, which is surprising in the case of Kansas City. They were able to get a good start out of Kyle Davies, which helped. Meche and Greinke will be solid if not great this year, but their offense will be poor, and I don’t see K.C. being this year’s Rays.

Minnesota has received some poor pitching, but Scott Baker is on his way back and Francisco Liriano will not continue to pitch this poorly. The White Sox have had mostly good pitching this week (Jose Contreras pitching poorly does not surprise this Yankees fan), but their offense did not do much to supplement that. Too many of their key players outside of Carlos Quentin are too old and the young players are mostly poor hitters, except Josh Fields.

Finally Detroit is in first thanks to their offense, specifically Miguel Cabrera, who this week looks like the guy we thought he was in 2007. They still have pretty poor starting pitching and it looks like Justin Verlander is still a bit off. Rick Porcello pitched pretty well, but Jim Leyland left him in too long and he tired quickly. The Tigers will have to take it a little easier on their young stud’s arm if they want him to last deep into the season.

AL East

Finally in the AL East, there’s all sorts of wackiness as the two bottom teams from last year are currently up top. Toronto has actually had poor pitching outside of Halladay, but their hitting has surprisingly picked up the slack. Marco Scutaro had probably the best offensive week of his life since high school. Adam Lind is showing why he was a top hitting prospect for the team and rewarding the team for not completely giving up on him. And Scott Rolen, who the team is reportedly looking to trade, has gotten off on the right foot for the team to accomplish that goal.

For Baltimore, they’ve scored three runs or less in their two losses, and five runs or more in their four wins. Their offense has been pretty good thanks to Luke Scott, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones. Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara have looked pretty good for the rotation. But, considering that this rotation also has Mark Hendrickson and Adam Eaton, they’ve got a heavy anchor tied to their foot and it’s going to be tossed overboard at any moment. 

The Yankees, Rays and Red Sox round up the back and I think we all expect them to improve. After pitching poorly in the season opener, C.C. Sabathia rebounded and pitched well in his second start. Before hurting his wrist, Mark Teixeira had a decent start to his season. Nick Swisher has had quite the start to the season and is allowing Yankees fans to say “And all we gave up was Wilson Betemit?” Of course, Swisher’s error Sunday did help lead to the loss. But, the starting pitching will be good for the Yankees and once A-Rod returns, the offense will be very good. Robinson Cano is off to a hot start and looks to have improved his swing from last year and is even showing some discipline at the plate. It will be interesting to see if that continues.

Yet again, the Rays have good pitching, but with B.J. Upton out they have been a little punchless, but that will change tomorrow with Upton’s return. Without Upton, Evan Longoria is showing that he is a superstar and will be a menace for a long time.

Finally in Boston, the issue has been a dearth of offense. David Ortiz has not hit for power so far, which may indicate that the wrist injury sapped him of some strength, or it could just be the poor weather so far in the Northeast. Ellsbury, Lowell, Drew and Lowrie are also struggling to hit. Bay, Varitek and Youkilis have started the season exceptionally hot and Pedroia is hitting solidly as well.

Sox fans will have to hope that the struggling hitters rebound more than the hot hitters regress or else they’ll be in for a lot of low-scoring games. Josh Beckett is already showing his ace form on the mound, to the point that he threw a pitch near a hitter’s head on purpose Sunday. Jon Lester had a bit of a rough first start, but he’ll rebound and look more dominant. Daisuke Matsuzaka will pitch better as well, but homers and walks will always be an issue with him. Sox fans will have to hope for more of last year’s luck, where the home runs Dice-K allowed were rarely with baserunners on.

© Adam for Sports of Boston, 2009. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Opinion, Red Sox.

Starting Pitching

The Yankees should pursue C.C. Sabathia and pursue him hard, which is the approach they’ve taken. It’s rare to have a lefty starter that good available on the free agent market, let alone one who is in his prime at 28 years old. Now I know that the attrition rate for pitchers is high, but C.C. has stayed very healthy in his career. To help, he can use his large body to generate his velocity, rather than needing absolutely perfect, but violent-looking mechanics.

Furthermore, he increased his strikeout rate, carried a very good walk rate, decreased his home run rate (unlike that other lefty that was traded last offseason.. cough JOHAN SANTANA cough) and has not gotten incredibly lucky, as evidenced by his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) being right around league average.

We are dealing with one of the top pitchers of our generation, one who would’ve won a Cy Young this year if he was not traded midseason.  Also, Sabathia is one of the rare power pitchers that gets more groundballs than flyballs. Simply put, there’s no reason for the Yankees not to pursue him. Six years might be a little bit much, but that would leave him at 34 at the end of the contract, where he would likely still be a very good pitcher.

So that’s one slot in the rotation down, and Chein Ming-Wang and Joba Chamberlain are the other two definites to return. So what to do about the final two rotation spots? Well if Mike Mussina is willing to keep pitching, I think it’s almost definite that the Yankees should bring him back. He made the Jamie Moyer transition last year and looked very good in doing so. If Mussina decides to head into the sunset without doubt as to whether he’d played too long, the Yankees should bring back Andy Pettitte.

For the last starting pitching slot, I think the Yankees should attempt to sign Ben Sheets to a one-year deal. Yes, he’s very injury prone, even moreso than A.J. Burnett. But, Sheets has a better track record of quality pitching than Burnett and might be more willing to take a one-year deal to rehab his image. This also keeps a rotation spot open for next year for Phil Hughes. Given that Joba will have innings limits and Sheets is unlikely to be healthy all year, Hughes will still be able to get major league work in during the 2008 season, as well.

I don’t like A.J. Burnett as an option since he’s going to want multiple years and the Yankees don’t need another injury prone player under a multi-year contract. I’d prefer Derek Lowe to Burnett for health reasons. However, with Boras as his agent, Lowe is likely to want a multi-year deal as well, which blocks Hughes for next year.

Relief Pitching

The next area is relief pitching and no signings or trades will need to be done in my opinion. The Yankees have tons of options, the real choice is which of those players make the major league roster. Mariano Rivera and Damaso Marte are definites, given their contracts. The rest of the bullpen will be chosen from these options: Brian Bruney, David Robertson, Phil Coke, Jose Veras, Dan Giese, Scott Patterson, Humberto Sanchez (unless the team decides to convert him back to starting), Alfredo Aceves, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Melancon and J. Brent Cox. It’s very refreshing to see actual solid relievers in there instead of guys like Kyle Farnsworth or LaTroy Hawkins.

I prefer an 11-man pitching staff to a 12-man one, which means there’s four spots left to fight for. I would classify Bruney as a definite given the improvement he showed last year. Phil Coke gives the team a lot of versatility as a second lefty in the bullpen and one who can pitch multiple innings.

So now we have two spots left to decide from. Jose Veras was shaky at times last year, but he pitched above average, so he should be in. Finally, given that they’re only going to have six relievers, another pitcher that can pitch multiple innings would be valuable, and Dan Giese pitched really well out of the bullpen as a long reliever, so I would take him. If the Yankees were to go with 12 pitchers, I’d argue that they should give Mark Melancon and his impressive college and minor league closing track record a chance over Edwar Ramirez.

Batting/Fielding

Now we come to the fun part. The offense/defense. The acquisition of Nick Swisher last week was a solid one, especially when you consider that the largest piece they gave up was Wilson Betemit. I don’t agree with Cashman in putting Swisher at first. Sure, he’ll be a slight upgrade over Giambi if he rebounds as expected and after factoring improved defense, but given the lack of solid right fielders available, I think the Yankees would be better off moving Swisher to right. Without a doubt, the Yankees should sign Mark Teixeira. He is a very good offensive first baseman and very good defensively as well. That combination would make him a massive upgrade over Jason Giambi.

Also, this would all mean the Yankees don’t retain Bobby Abreu, a move that I think needs to be done. Abreu wants multiple years and given his age, I think that is a very unwise signing. Also, according to many play by play fielding metrics, including David Pinto’s PMR, Mitchel G. Lichtman’s UZR and others, Bobby Abreu was one of the worst right fielders last year. So Swisher would be a solid upgrade defensively over even though he would be a downgrade offensively. And Swisher would be able to replace Abreu’s plate discipline.

I would give the centerfield job to Brett Gardner. He has a better ability to judge pitches than Melky Cabrera, and adds a speed dimension on the basepaths. I wouldn’t start him every game. I would do some sort of rotation with Damon, Xavier Nady, Gardner and Swisher to get them a large amount of playing time and since Hideki Matsui is the DH, but has bad knees, they’ll get chances to be the DH, as well, getting each over 400 plate appearances. Given that the likelihood of finding a deal to send Matsui elsewhere is low, I think the Yankees are best off with an arrangement of that sort.

As for the rest of the team, Robinson Cano should not be traded unless it nets them a centerfielder who can hit. If that happens, then signing Orlando Hudson would be a solid and not too expensive move. However, given the emergence of Austin Jackson at AA last year, I think the Yankees should not block up center field. So now we have the following players on the team: Jorge Posada, Jose Molina, Teixeira, Cano, Derek Jeter, A-Rod, Swisher, Gardner, Damon, Nady and Matsui. That’s 11 right there. Cody Random will very likely be back as the utility infielder after stealing that role away from Betemit last year at the end.

So now we’re at 12 and have two spots to fill. Given that Gardner, Damon and Matsui are lefties, I think the Yankees want a hitter who can play some outfield who is a right handed hitter. Another former Brewer, Gabe Kapler could fill that role very well and would be low cost. Finally, another infielder might make sense, and for that, I’m thinking someone with good defensive prowess for the left side of the infield. Perhaps if Omar Vizquel is willing to accept a backup role, he certainly still has the ability to play defense above average. Otherwise, I’m not too sure, but it’s not a position that will matter much given the amount the starters would play. If they go with 12 pitchers, the 14th position player would be an afterthought.

All in all, I feel these moves would give the Yankees much better flexibility and improve them for the long term, as well. The pitching would be better, the offense would be younger, the defense would be improved in both the infield and outfield. Most of all, this is a team that could compete in the AL East.

© Adam for Sports of Boston, 2008. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Opinion, Red Sox.