Sources told the paper that Gisele’s dress size has changed, leading many to expect that a baby bump is on the way.

Sure, file this one under the “I don’t care” department. That’s fine.

But, you may start caring if the baby is born during the NFL season. If Gisele is two months pregnant, and we’re in May, that would mean the baby would be due around December, if my math is correct.

Gisele and Brady’s first child, Benjamin, was born in December of 2009.

Brady has another son, John Thomas Moynahan, with ex-girlfriend Bridget Moynahan.

© KC Downey for Sports of Boston, 2012. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Now!, Patriots.

Many movie moments could symbolize Wes Welker‘s decision to sign his $9.5 million franchise tender Tuesday and return to the Patriots for the 2012-13 season. Perhaps the Hulk destroying enemy ships in The Avengers. Or Dean Portman showing up at halftime of the JV-Varsity game at the end of Mighty Ducks 3. Really, any clip of someone returning from somewhere and then going on a rampage would do.

But none could do it better than Randy Quaid in Independence Day:

Just pretend the spaceship is an opposing defense and the metaphor works perfectly. Kinda like Welker and Tom Brady.

Welker Played His Best, Made Everyone Better in 2011

Despite whatever grief Patriots fans gave Welker following his drop towards the end of Super Bowl XLVI, Welker still had a career year last season. He set career-highs in nearly every possible receiving category: 1,569 receiving yards, 12.9 yards per reception, nine touchdowns, and 77 first downs. He caught an NFL-best 122 passes (22 ahead of second-place Roddy White of Atlanta), coming within one of his career-best.

As great as Welker’s Pro Bowl-qualifying individual accomplishments were, he also greatly improved the rest of the Patriots’ receivers. Rob Gronkowski posted the best season by a tight end in NFL history because secondaries couldn’t focus on him and leave Welker open in the slot. Such decisions too often proved disastrous (just ask the Dolphins in Game 1), and teams willingly risked a second-year player dominating for even the possibility of containing an eight-year vet like Welker.

Seemingly completely recovered from his knee injury two years ago, Welker’s agility and vision made him a lethal receiver across the middle: too speedy for linebackers, too crafty for most cornerbacks. And as Welker wreaked havoc in the middle of the field, receivers like Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez and Deion Branch benefited from the chaos.

Welker Setting Up for Bigger Payday

Kudos to Welker for not dragging his contract situation through the mud. He wanted a better deal, the Patriots didn’t want to give it to him, and they franchised him. Welker knew what they would do and, rather than piss and moan, just accepted it. An emphatic statement of support, an enthusiastic tweet, and the issue is over and done with.

But no one should misconstrue Welker’s tolerance for altruism. If Welker has another career year like 2011, he can show every team out there (Patriots or not) that he’s playing the best football of his life. Higher signing bonuses, more “guaranteed” (a phony word in NFL bargaining) cash, more years – a 2012 that matches or exceeds 2011 makes everything possible.

On top of his numbers, Welker’s approach shows professionalism and responsibility. Both of those qualities translate to profitability, because teams are way more likely to work with a player if they think he’ll keep the process to himself. Randy Moss‘ options have dwindled considerably over the last few seasons as more and more teams realize just how much of a prima donna he is. Despite Hall-of-Fame numbers, few teams want to go after a player who’ll air every petty grievance to the press.

And when it comes to the fans, every contract issue seems petty. When you’re making $30,000 a year, you don’t care if a guy gets $8 million over one year or $13 million over two. Fighting over so much money can only alienate fans towards both the player and the franchise.

Welker has shown none of the egotism athletes typically develop when they become on-the-field superstars. His humility is a bankable attribute, same as his speed.

The Patriots didn’t give Welker a longer deal because they’re still unsure his knee has fully healed (and because they’re the Patriots). Had Welker signed for longer elsewhere and struggled, the team might have cut him or asked him to renegotiate. Then he’d be exactly where he is now, except he’d be older and coming off a worse year.

But a second fantastic year and a rational approach to bargaining make Welker the ideal free-agent package, no matter who goes after him. How Welker handled the franchise tag sets him up for the big-money, long-term deal he’s wanted all along. And it gives Patriots fans one more year to enjoy one of the greatest receivers in franchise history.

That, as they say, is a win-win.

© Matt Goisman for Sports of Boston, 2012. | Permalink | One comment
Filed under: Featured, Patriots, Top Story.

When the 2012 New England Patriots kick off their season in a few months, many of the faces will look familiar. Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Wes Welker will still be there, picking apart defenses. Jerod Mayo will still blow up any receiver foolhardy enough to run across the middle of the field. Stephen Gostkowski will still split the uprights with computer-like proficiency.

But one familiar face won’t be there: Matt Light, who retired from the NFL Monday. Light played for the Patriots for 11 years, starting 153 of 155 total regular season games, plus 16 playoff games. He started all 16 games in seven different seasons, playing a key role in the Patriots’ transformation into the premier NFL franchise of the 21st century.

Light Anchored Competent Offensive Line

In the five years before Light arrived, the Patriots’ offensive line averaged just under 41 sacks per season, with an average rank smack in the middle of the NFL (16). With Light anchoring the team starting in 2001, average sacks dropped down to 30.5, and average ranking improved to 11.1.

The Patriots had allowed 40-plus sacks each of the three seasons prior to Light taking over as left tackle. They allowed 46 during Light’s rookie year – which ended in the Patriots’ first Lombardi Trophy – but did not allow more than 32 in any season after except for 2008, when Brady’s injury in the first game of the season forced Matt Cassell to take over as starting quarterback.

Because Cassell didn’t have Brady’s rhythm with his receivers, Cassell’s passing plays took longer, leading to more sacks. In a season doomed after its opening quarter, the blame should be spread equally.

When Brady played, Light and teammates like Dan Koppen and Logan Mankins consistently gave him sufficient protection to get rid of the ball. The Patriots finished among the NFL’s top five in allowed sacks four times during Light’s tenure, a feat accomplished just twice in the 12 years beforehand.

Light turned the offensive line around, but Patriots fans shouldn’t misconstrue him as the greatest tackle in Patriot history. The Patriots never led the league in allowed sacks from 2001-11, and they never featured the most dominant running games – not they tried.

And since he usually had to deal with the most dangerous passers, Light himself struggled from time to time, especially in the playoffs. While the offensive line kept Brady on his feet for most of their run to Super Bowl XLVI, breakdowns in protection cost the Patriots their undefeated season, with the Giants sacking Brady five times in Super Bowl XLII.

While sacks weren’t the only reason the Patriots lost to the Giants that year, cameras showed Brady repeatedly staring down his offensive linemen – Light in particular – during the game. Following that loss, the Patriots lost their next two postseason games, and the line gave up eight sacks between the two losses.

Light Shouldn’t Get Into Hall of Fame

Light played left tackle well enough to win three Super Bowls and earn four trips to the Pro Bowl, but don’t expect to see him in Canton unless so many members of the early-2000s Patriots dynasty get inducted that the Hall of Fame has to take him as well. He bears some similarity to Hall of Famers Jim Ringo and Jim Otto, but neither of them played tackle.

Patriots fans should remember Light as part of a unit that helped make Brady into a Hall of Famer. They respect Light for playing through the constant gastrointestinal distress of Crohn’s Disease, and they should support his decision to leave the NFL with his health – especially his mental health and cognitive faculties – fully intact.

Solder Ready to Step In

With Light’s retirement, the Nate Solder Era will begin next season. Solder has already been used as a lead-blocker on goal-line plays – a secondary talent Light never displayed. A taller and heavier player than Light, Solder’s physical presence adds an element of intimidation to his game.

Solder definitely has the potential to be as good as Light, if not better, despite getting flagged five times in 2011. NFL pass-rushing is much faster than NCAA pass-rushing, and Solder’s penalties – three holding, one hands to the face, one clipping – came from his inexperience with how quick NFL players are off the snap.

Once Solder understands that, he’ll start blocking without getting flagged. And that will make the Patriots’ line even more dominant.

© Matt Goisman for Sports of Boston, 2012. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Opinion, Patriots, Top Story.

Have a look…

Tom Brady (Photo by Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images)

The hairdo is his first new one…in two days! He sported a vintage look for the Derby on Saturday.

© KC Downey for Sports of Boston, 2012. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Now!, Patriots.

It’s a joke that websites publish NFL Draft grades the day or even the year after the actual NFL draft. Draft “experts” like Mel Kiper and Todd McShay say they evaluate team’s drafts based on whether they fulfilled their needs and received draft “value” with their picks. There is nothing wrong with those evaluations. Just don’t tell me you can assign a letter grade to them without actually seeing these players on the field in a regular season NFL game.

You can find a Tom Brady in the 6th round or a Peyton Manning with the 1st overall pick. You can grab Troy Brown in a round that doesn’t even exist today or you can bring an undrafted player like James Harrison who can be a perennial Pro-Bowler and Super Bowl hero. Draft success can be good scouting, strong due diligence or just plain luck.

When it comes to the Patriots drafts or others, I like to evaluate using a simple criterion.

#1 Did they draft to fill needs?

In 2010, after a first round playoff  loss to the Ravens, Bill Belichick chose to bring in more targets for Tom Brady. As described in “Bill Belichick: A Football Life,” the Patriots offense had become nothing more than deep passes to Randy Moss and slant passes to Wes Welker. Teams that were able to take that away from the Patriots offense were able to keep them in check. The Patriots stole Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in the 2nd and 4th rounds respectively and those picks gave them a tight end combination that no one in the league can match. The pass defense had also shown cracks that season so Belichick drafted cornerback Devin McCourty to help improve in that area.

Last year, the Patriots lost to the Jets because they had trouble keeping Tom Brady comfortable in the pocket and because they still could not clamp down on defense. So despite a draft deep in defensive lineman, the Patriots decided to draft offensive tackle Nate Solder, a big corner in Ras-I Dowling and a pair of running backs (Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley). This year the Patriots spent almost all their draft currency on defense, their true Achilles heel in 2011 and the primary reason they lost to the Giants in the Super Bowl.

#2 Did they pick the right player at the right position?

Translation: When the Patriots evaluated a position, whether it was two different tackles, guards, linebackers, wide receivers, etc., did they pick the right one? For instance, in the 2009 draft, they did not. In the 3rd round of that draft, the Patriots selected Brandon Tate, a wide receiver from North Carolina. With the next pick in the draft, the Steelers selected another wide receiver, Mike Wallace from Mississippi. Now, the criticism isn’t just that Wallace has become a star and Tate hasn’t. Both players were inconsistent performers in college and therefore, they slipped to 3rd round.

Tate however, had missed most of his Senior year with a torn ACL. In his rookie year, he tore another ACL, and aside from a couple of kickoff returns for touchdowns, he was never a factor in the Patriot offense. Wallace has become one of the premier deep threats in the league.

In the 2011 draft, the Patriots hit a home run on Rob Gronkowski when they selected the tight end in the second round. Gronkowski had missed his senior season with a back injury and many thought the Patriots might target heralded Brigham Young tight end Dennis Pitta with their second round pick. So, you will have hits and misses. But if the misses continue to occur, then the questioning can begin.

Recent Misses

• WR Chad Jackson instead of WR Greg Jennings in 2006
• S Patrick Chung instead of CB Vontae Davis in 2009
• Florida LB Jermaine Cunningham instead of Florida LB Carlos Dunlap in 2010
• RB Shane Vereen instead of RB DeMarco Murray in 2011

Recent Hits

• LB Jerod Mayo instead of LB Keith Rivers in 2008
• CB Devin McCourty instead of CB Kyle Wilson in 2011
• TE Rob Gronkowski and TE Aaron Hernandez instead of TE Dennis Pitta in 2011

Over the next few years, I will monitor closely the production of Patriots first round pick Chandler Jones vs. the production of Whitney Mercilus of the Bears and Nick Perry of the Packers, both taken in the first round behind Jones, and both defensive ends. I don’t take “the system” into consideration, as you can tell a great player from a bad player regardless of system.

The Patriots second first round pick, linebacker Dont’a Hightower, will be compared with Alabama Crimson Tide teammate Courtney Upshaw, now with the Ravens. If Hightower performs as some think, he might be the best linebacker taken in the draft.

I will be interested to see how Tavon Wilson, a pick ridiculed by the draft experts, performs against fellow defensive backs taken in the 2nd round behind Wilson. So, keep an eye on the production of Casey Hayward (Vanderbilt #62 overall) with Green Bay, Brandon Taylor (LSU #73 overall) with San Diego and Trumaine Johnson (Montana #65 overall) with the Rams.

Finally, comparing the Eagles selection of defensive end Vinny Curry (Marshall #59 overall) vs the Patriots selection of defensive end Jake Bequette (Arkansas, #90 overall) will be interesting. This comparison is noteworthy because of the teams and coaches involved. The Patriots and the Eagles are two of the most successful teams of the decade and their coaches, Andy Reid and Bill Belichick, are two of the most successful coaches of the decade. They are highly regarded for their ability to move up and down the draft board to find value.

The Patriots could have taken either Bequette or Curry with one of their two second round picks. They traded it for a 3rd and 5th and eventually that 5th round pick for a 6th round and two 7th round picks. So, if Alfonzo Dennard (Nebraska #224) can shake off his considerable baggage and be the player many expect then the combo of Bequette and Dennard could make the Patriots once again look like draft day geniuses. However, if Curry lives up to the first round status that some people felt he deserved and Bequette and Dennard are busts then that trade will be added to the list of recent draft misses.

#3 Did they find a star, and a few starters?

The media has been trying to pigeonhole Belichick’s draft strategy for years. The truth is Belichick’s has never shown a consistent strategy throughout his tenure. They have had drafts where they traded up: 2003 to select tight end Daniel Graham and this year twice to select Jones and Hightower.

They have also had drafts where they have traded back: 2008 for Jerrod Mayo, 2009 for Patrick Chung, and 2011 for Devin McCourty.

My take is that when Belichick says, “he did what he thought would best improve the team,” he’s being sincere. He has a belief in his system and he selects players that will best fit in. He takes that belief and applies a different strategy to it every year. Like every team, he has hits and misses.

In general, with the draft and the signing of undrafted free agents, if you can find a star, which I define as a Pro-Bowl player, and a few solid starters whether it be offense, defense or special teams, you have succeeded.

The Patriots have had good results the last five years in finding three contributors in the draft.

2007 – I would consider safety Brandon Meriweather selected #24 overall a solid starter in his Patriot tenure. The acquisitions of Randy Moss and Wes Welker for 4th and 2nd round draft picks was akin to adding two Pro Bowlers. This draft was a home run.

2008 – The Patriots had the #7 overall pick after a trade the previous season. They lost their own #1 pick as a result of the “Spygate” punishment. They traded back a few spots and selected Jerod Mayo, who has been a pro-bowler. Mayo was the brightest spot in a class comprised mostly of failures. Terence Wheatley, Shawn Crable, Kevin O’Connell, Jonathan Wilhite and Bo Ruud are all either with other teams or out of the league altogether. Matthew Slater, taken in the 5th round, has been a solid contributor on special teams. This draft was not an abject failure but not a huge success, as the Patriots came out of it with just two players who were consistent contributors. The 2008 draft in general was weak throughout the league.

2009 – The Clay Matthews Draft. The Patriots are often criticized for passing on linebacker Clay Matthews in the 2009 draft. They also passed on offensive tackle Michael Oher, wide receiver Hakeem Nicks and cornerback Vontae Davis late in the first round. The Patriots first four selections that year were safety Patrick Chung, cornerback Darius Butler, defensive tackle Ron Brace and offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer. Vollmer has been a second team All-Pro, Chung a solid starter and 7th round pick Julian Edelman has been a terrific role player. This was the draft where the Patriots chose Tate over Wallace but despite that miss, it was still it was a successful draft.

2010 – The Patriots drafted cornerback Devin McCourty, tight end Rob Gronkowski, linebacker Brandon Spikes and tight end Aaron Hernandez in the first four rounds. They hit on a franchise player with Gronkowski, a borderline Pro Bowler in Aaron Hernandez and solid starters with McCourty and Spikes. In rounds 5 through 7, the Patriots drafted punter Zoltan Mesko and defensive end Brandon Deaderick, and both have been successful in their roles. Even 6th round pick Ted Larsen, who did not make the team out of training camp, has become a starter, albeit in Tampa Bay. Despite a miss on wide receiver Taylor Price and linebacker Jermaine Cunningham, this draft was a home run.

2011 – It’s too early to gauge the success of this draft. First round pick Nate Solder filled in admirably last year at right and left tackle for Sebastian Vollmer and Matt Light. This year with Light’s retirement, he will be put to the real test, covering Tom Brady’s blind side. Later round picks Shane Vereen, Stevan Ridley and Ras-I Dowling go into the 2012 season with high expectations.

2012 – So with 2012 draft class, the Patriots organization and fans would be more than overjoyed if Dont’a Hightower became their Pro Bowler, Chandler Jones their feared edge rusher and who would not want to see Tashon Wilson overcome his 6th round draft value? Just getting drafted is quite a remarkable accomplishment by Wilson, considering he lost both his parents by the age of 10.

So, bring on the 2012 season and let’s see if the kids can play because that means a lot more than whether Mel Kiper gave their draft an A – the Tuesday after the draft.

© gcain for Sports of Boston, 2012. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Featured, Patriots, Top Story.

The New England Patriots hosted two guests for visits on Friday. Both Ryan Grant and Tim Hightower were in New England, as the Patriots are on a search to fill the void left by BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

If either player or both find themselves taking hand-offs from Tom Brady next season, it will be a small, but important workload. The emergence of Stevan Ridley, who showed flashes of a guy that could be a solid back in the NFL last season (albeit in limited time), and the fact that the Patriots are a heavily pass-oriented offense means any new running back won’t be asked to do too much.

Green-Ellis, who never fumbled for the Patriots, was the perfect back for this offense. Can Ryan Grant or Tim Hightower fit this role well?

Ryan Grant

Grant had back-to-back 1000-plus yard seasons in 2008 and 2009, but an injury took him down for basically the entire 2010 season. Last season, he had a reduced role in the Packer offense.

If healthy, Grant can be a really good back. He will be 30 this December, but the type of role that the Patriots would ask him to play could be a great way to rejuvenate his career.

Tim Hightower

Hightower has never been a number one back, and that would be the case in New England, so familiarity with having a non-featured role could prove to be helpful for him if he lands here. Hightower is a versatile back who can catch passes out of the backfield on a regular basis.

Hightower will turn 26 before the start of the season and could find himself in New England for a few years splitting time with whoever else is part of the backfield.

Both?

If both players somehow wind up here next season, one back would most likely be the third down back, and the other would get some touches on a regular basis but not as a number one 25-30 touch status.

I like the style of both players and if they are willing to buy into making reps count and not counting reps, both could have a great deal of success as Patriots.

© Bobby Doherty for Sports of Boston, 2012. | Permalink | 2 comments
Filed under: Featured, Patriots.

After failing (miserably) to live up to expectations last season with the Patriots, it is no surprise that Chad Ochocinco has agreed to restructure his contract for the upcoming season. Ochocinco lowered his base salary from $3 million to $1 million, ensuring him a spot at the Patriots training camp this summer. Of course, it was re-structure, re-locate, or re-tire.

Along with the tremendously lowered salary, Ochocinco will arrive in camp with tremendously lowered expectations. While it is admirable that he would like to stick with the Pats and redeem himself, the enduring image of this once potent receiver is that of an aging player who after making his only catch in the Super Bowl asked to come out of  the game. It was not pretty.

Tom Brady suddenly has more targets than an archery range. With the well established stars in Welker, Gronkowski and Gonzalez, he has the possession receivers needed to keep the offense moving. With the addition of Brandon Lloyd, he may finally have his long coveted deep threat. The signings of Deion Branch, Anthony Gonzalez, and Dante Stallworth, add depth to the receiver position and all of this takes place before the spring draft. What does all this mean? Ochocinco’s playing time is threatened.

Ochocinco caught 15 passes in 2012 and made $6,000,000. In case you don’t have a calculator handy, that’s $400,000 per catch. Should he make the team and grab some playing time in a crowded field expectations will not be high. $1,000,000 seems more than fair.

© Megan Shea for Sports of Boston, 2012. | Permalink | One comment
Filed under: Featured, Patriots.

Well we knew all thought it was going to be a big week and it certainly did not disappoint. Usually, the first week of the NCAA tournament dominates the national headlines because of the thousands of bracket and office pools across the country. This week was different. Beyond the spectacle that is “March Madness” was NFL free agency, which is becoming the new March Madness, and of course there was the NBA trade deadline (my thoughts on basketball are to come in future columns this week).

NFL Free Agency Thoughts

NFL free agency kicked into high gear at right about 4:05 PM EST last Tuesday. You have to love how the NFL sprinkles in hypocrisy with excitement. Free agency used to begin at 12:00 AM EST, but was moved up to a 4:00 PM EST to increase interest. Of course, there is to be no tampering by teams or agents before free agency starts.

However, we saw signings an hour after the clock started, and players getting on airplanes headed to their future homes. With a salary cap (and yes Mike Felger, a real cap), the players feel pressure to take the first good deal and sign. The most sought after players seldom even visit more than one city.

Clearly a lot of this negotiation goes on with agents, players and teams prior to the official start of free agency. This is a landscape that Scott Boras would find most displeasing.

Patriots in Free Agency

On Tuesday, I tweeted that the Patriots not making any moves on the first day of free agency was “shameful.” This tweet was sent after most of the available free agent wide receivers had been signed up and Brandon Lloyd, long linked to the Patriots, was on a flight to San Francisco. I will concede that the tweet was reactionary and sensational, but some of my Twitter posts are.

It was published by Mike Reiss of ESPNBOSTON.com on his daily blog and I took some heat from the “posters” on some of the local websites. Its fine, to quote Chris Rock, “I said it, that’s right I said it!” I stand by the comment in this way; Lloyd is now a member of the Patriots and he or a player similar, whether it be Reggie Wayne or Mike Wallace, was a must signing.

Brandon Lloyd

Without Lloyd, the Patriots were still capable of 11 wins and 5,000 yards of passing offense because they did it last year. But, critical observation of the Patriots playoff run showed the lack of a downfield threat. A receiver who can get open “outside the numbers” is necessary in this offense. Baltimore and New York didn’t shut down the Patriots offense, but they kept the big plays to a minimum and kept Tom Brady from dominating the game by playing up tight on the receivers knowing the Patriots had no one to get deep.

That was why Brady throwing a downfield interception to Matthew Slater of all people ALMOST cost them the AFC championship. Two weeks later, Brady’s downfield throw to Rob Gronkowski (and subsequent INT) was a contributing factor to their Super Bowl loss. The fact remains the Patriots did not have any downfield options last year.

On paper, Lloyd gives the offense a perfect design. It now has an adequate running game, a lethal short-to-intermediate passing attack that with Gronkowski is deadly in the red zone and finally a downfield attack. It’s not unlike what Josh McDaniels had in 2007 when he previously was offensive coordinator of the Patriots. Except now, McDaniels has two tight ends that are matchup problems for every team in the league.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Patriots’ patience worked as they were able to sign Lloyd to a cap friendly deal. Now Lloyd needs to deliver in a way that Ochocinco never did. The Patriots needed to upgrade this position for them to return to the Super Bowl next season, on that I will not concede.

Defense

On the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots made some minor moves with potential upside. They chose not to go after pass rushing defensive ends John Abraham or Jeremy Mincey and instead signed Bengals defensive end Jonathan Fanene, Chargers safety Steven Gregory and Raiders defensive lineman Trevor Scott. None of the three players were in the top 75 on anyone’s free agent list, but fill holes in a defense that still needs to be rebuilt. With a lot of the big names off the board, the Patriots can still bring in some impactful players on defense.

Defensive end Mark Andersen had 10 sacks for the Patriots last season, but he might receive a big-money offer elsewhere. Andre Carter, who also yielded double digit sacks prior to being injured, can probably be signed for short money. The Patriots might also want to offer deals to outside linebacker Manny Lawson and recently released San Diego Charger’s defensive end Luis Castillo (safety LaRon Landry would have been nice too…but he signed with the Jets).

These depth moves will allow the Patriots to target their true needs in the 2012 draft: pass rushers and defensive playmakers.

Peyton Manning

It has finally ended, and Bert Breer can finally go home. The Peyton Manning-to-Denver news was announced Monday after weeks and months of speculation. This all started with Manning apparently headed to Miami with Reggie Wayne a little over a week ago. This prompted days of discussion regarding Manning in the AFC East facing Tom Brady twice a season.

Then, as quickly as Miami was in i,t they were out and Arizona and Denver emerged as contenders for Manning’s services. Arizona seemed like a logical landing spot. They are a quiet media market, play in a climate controlled dome stadium in a weaker division and have one of the best receivers on the planet in Larry Fitzgerald.

Denver was a surprise, at first, but considering John Elway’s burning desire to get out from under Tebowmania, it made perfect sense. It seemed to be a hard sell (outdoor stadium, erratic weather although not as cold as many people think and a football team that is upcoming but not great).

Tennessee joined the hunt late when aging owner Bud Adams declared to his staff to go get Peyton! Manning played college football in Tennessee, he would be able to stay in the same division and like Denver, Tennessee is an up coming team with a good young defense.

Then, out of nowhere the mystery team appeared. That team was the San Francisco 49ers, who were a special teams fumble from playing in Super Bowl 46. In the second half of the NFC Championship, Alex Smith could not complete a pass to a wide receiver. We all know at 50% of Manning can do that. The 49ers have the best defense in the NFL and are returning all their starters on defense. Their coach, Jim Harbaugh was a former quarterback and preceded Peyton in Indianapolis. They signed wide receivers Randy Moss and Mario Manningham in free agency and have the second best receiving tight end in the league in Vernon Davis. Throw in Frank Gore, one of the best running backs in the league, and it’s a slam dunk right?

Apparently not, as Manning shocked many football insiders when he decided that Denver was in fact the best location to end his career. Why did he decide this? Well, that will fill up the airwaves of the NFL Network for the next 3 months. Maybe it was his father Joe Kennedy Archie Manning yearning for an all-Manning Super Bowl. With the depth of great quarterbacks and teams in the NFC, maybe the belief was that Denver offered the easiest road. Although I hope Manning watched Tom Brady carve up that defense not once, but twice last year.

If Manning can return to health, Tom Brady is the only quarterback in the conference in his league. Manning’s decision will play a key role in his final legacy as an NFL quarterback. Will he be able to win that second ring with another team and accomplish what even the great Joe Montana could not do? Regardless, it should be fun and let’s not forget the Patriots host the Broncos in Foxboro this season. Will that be the opening game of Sunday Night Football? Let’s hope so.

Other NFL Free Agents

As for the rest of free agency, the most aggressive teams were teams who did not qualify for the playoffs last year. A lot of bad teams last year had extra cap space from the lockout and “uncapped year.” If you look at the signings of Mario Williams (Bills), Vincent Jackson (Buccaneers), Cortland Finnegan (Rams), Robert Meachem (Chargers) and Brandon Carr (Chiefs), they were all to teams who needed to make splashes for their fan base and to remain competitive and difficult divisions. Teams like the Patriots, Giants, Ravens, Steelers, and Packers are usually not “big splash” teams in free agency.

The NFL’s popularity is extending to all aspects of the sport. No longer is it about the season itself. Last year the NFL Draft went primetime and this year with Twitter and the expanding 24 hour coverage of the NFL Network free agency is becoming appointment viewing.

Note: In a previous column discussing the media battle between 98.5 and WEEI, I mentioned that Entercom, the parent company of WEEI, had lost half a billion dollars last year. That number was an error. While it was correct that Entercom’s stock price was below $7 a share and they had experienced financial difficulties, Entercom actually had a profit of $68 million. Their revenues are still far short of CBS radio and that will have an impact on any bidding war for broadcast rights.

© gcain for Sports of Boston, 2012. | Permalink | 6 comments
Filed under: Featured, Opinion, Patriots, Top Story.

Tom Brady was seen at the Celtics-Lakers game. (Photo from Boston.com)

What do you think of this faux hipster look? (Is it hipster that used the word faux?)

Does Brady now have impaired vision?

Does anyone care?

Weigh in below…

© KC Downey for Sports of Boston, 2012. | Permalink | No comment
Filed under: Now!, Patriots.

It was refreshing to hear Wes Welker discussion and not have it be about whether or not he should have caught that Brady pass in the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl. Monday, as was speculated, Wes Welker was given the franchise tag by the New England Patriots. The Patriots waited until the final hours before officially placing the tag on Welker, which created some drama considering this was a team that once traded Richard Seymour a week before the start of the NFL season.

First, the facts: Welker can sign the franchise tender at any time prior to the start of the season and he will be guaranteed $9.4 million for the upcoming season. That salary figure is based on the top five average salaries of the highest paid wide receivers in the NFL. The figure does not take into consideration signing bonuses paid to the top five players. Welker can once again become a free agent at the end of next season and the Patriots have the option of placing the franchise tag on him again.

So, let’s examine this from the perspective of Wes Welker, the Patriots and how it plays with the media and fans.

Wes Welker

Without direct comment from Welker, we can only speculate what he’s thinking, but it’s likely he would much rather have a new contract in front of him than the one-year franchise tender. Since being acquired from the Miami Dolphins prior to the 2007 season, Welker has been one of the most prolific receivers in the game. In the last five years with the Patriots, his 554 receptions rank first in the NFL. He is fourth in receiving yards with over 6,100, 1st in yards after the catch with 3,220, and 18th in the league in touchdowns with 18.

He has been Brady’s go-to guy in all situations and remarkably, after tearing his ACL in the season finale in 2009, did not miss a game to start the following season. He has far outperformed his previous contract and whether you think he’s a slot receiver or not, the numbers don’t lie. Welker’s agent David Dunn surely presented the Patriots with those numbers, but the most the Patriots were willing to commit to, according to reports, was two years guaranteed at $8 million per year.

Welker’s Options

Welker now has a few options at his disposal, with none of them ideal.

He can sign the tender and play under a one-year guaranteed contract and become a free agent again next season. The Patriots could once again franchise him, but Welker’s franchise number would rise 20% (close to $13 million). So it’s either a two-year guaranteed deal at $22 million or free agency if Welker can remain healthy.

Welker could hold out, and force the Patriots to offer him a long-term deal. Or Welker could sign the tender if the Patriot guarantee him they will not franchise him after next season. They averted a holdout with Asante Samuel in 2007 by offering him the same deal. It’s a gamble for a guy who is going to turn 31 on May 1st.

Finally, Welker could wait and see what the Patriots do in free agency and continue to negotiate for a long-term deal. The caveat is that both sides need to agree on a multi-year deal by July 15th.

The New England Patriots

The Patriots said all the right things Monday in their press release about the tagging of Welker. They mentioned how the tag allowed them more time to negotiate and hopefully Wes would be a Patriot for a long time. Time will tell if that’s lip service by the Patriots or sincerity.

People have called tagging Welker a no-brainer for the Patriots. Of the 32 teams in the NFL, 21 of them used the franchise tag on various players. This is an interesting time for many NFL teams. There are some teams with a lot of money to spend like the St. Louis Rams. There are teams such as the Patriots in the middle of pack in salary cap space, and there are teams like the Steelers, who are being forced to trim salary just to get under the cap.

The lockout has once again produced a strong crop of free agents who will be on the market in a week. The new National TV contracts do not kick until the 2014 season so the cap will stay pretty consistent the next two seasons.

The Need for Welker

The Patriots and Welker have not been really close to a deal all season according to reports. The Patriots offer of two years and $16 million is far below what Welker could earn on the open market. Welker is twice the receiver Santonio Holmes is, and Holmes is earning $10 million a year with the Jets.

As great as the Patriot offense has been the last two seasons, they once again showed they do not have a receiver that can get outside the numbers. Aaron Hernandez, Rob Gronkowski and Welker are not explosive downfield threats like Vincent Jackson, Calvin Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. Not having this weapon allowed the Ravens and Giants to play up and tight on their receivers, and the result for the Patriots was an inability to create plays down the field.

The two clearest examples of this were Brady interceptions to Matthew Slater and Rob Gronkowski, who could not create separation on downfield throws. Chad Ochocinco was supposed to be that receiver, and he was a complete disaster.

Other Franchise Tags Around the NFL

The Patriots have glaring needs at outside receiver, defensive end and in the secondary. Monday, some intriguing players who could have helped the Patriots were also franchised or re-signed. Cross off your Christmas list safeties Dashon Goldson (49’ers), Tyvon Branch (Raiders) and Michael Griffin (Titans), linebackers Anthony Spencer (Cowboys) and Ahmad Brooks (49’ers re-signed), and defensive ends Cliff Avril (Lions) and Kroy Biermann (Falcons resigned ).

The free agent pool is still deep with big ticket but expensive defensive game changers Mario Williams (DE Texans) and Cortland Finnegan (CB Titans). As well as explosive offensive wide outs like Vincent Jackson (Chargers) and Brandon Lloyd (Rams). One note about Lloyd, he played for Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels in Denver and in St. Louis, and he’s been linked with the Patriots for the past month. Don’t get your hopes up; he’s going to take the best deal.

What the Welker tag has done at the very least is guaranteed the Patriots the same offensive personnel as last season. They can’t stop with the Welker franchise tag. They can either spend on the defensive side of the ball or draft a wide receiver in the first round to stretch the field. If they do pair a Lloyd or Jackson with Welker, it would give Tom Brady one of the best offensive arsenals in the league. The only problem could be the fallout in the locker room if the Patriots offer a multi-year deal to a receiver and leave Welker on the one-year franchise tender. That could get ugly.

Another option is that the Patriots make no big splash in free agency. Let’s face it, when they have gone all in it hasn’t worked as well, so don’t be surprised if the Patriots do not land one or two of the top 20 free agents appearing on lists all across the internet.

The Media and Fan Reaction

The Patriots fan is always heavily biased toward the team. In this case, agreeing with the franchise tender is not being a “fanboy.” Welker takes a beating as a receiver, is not a game-breaker and can be taken out by bigger, physical defenses. He is 31, and has already had one major knee injury. The Patriots have several holes to fill and they need to fill them quicklybecause Tom Brady isn’t getting any younger. The AFC is wide open, and a player here or there can make all the difference and after free agency, the Patriots can always restructure a couple contracts to get Welker a multi-year deal.

Most of the local media is pretty sensible on this issue. Michael Felger, right on cue speaking on his radio show Monday, harped on the point that Welker has been a good soldier and deserved a multi-year contract. Felger is a salary cap denier, so you just can’t talk reason with him. Tony Massarotti spoke on what little leverage Welker had because he did not hold out last season. I haven’t read any comments from Ron Borges or Chris Gasper, but most likely they will try to take the opposite stance of the majority of the media, whether that stance is accurate or not. I expect with Borges more diatribes about how the Patriots took advantage of Welker and are always looking for a bargain etc.

Final Thoughts

Welker remaining with the Patriots for the 2012-2013 season was scenario #1 in my blueprint to New Orleans. Goldson, Branch and Griffin were three players I thought the Patriot should target on defense because of the glaring need at the Safety position. The Patriots can now explore corner options like Cortland Finnegan and Carlos Rogers (Redskins). There are also some pretty good pass rushers who could be had for relatively short-term deals and respectable money. I am talking about Jon Abraham (Falcons), Jeremy Mincey (Jaguars) and Patriot free agents Andre Carter and Mark Anderson.

NFL Free agency begins in a week. Unlike Major League Baseball, the NFL dominoes start falling within the first 48 hours. Patriots fans looking to put the Super Bowl behind them are hoping for a big splash.

© gcain for Sports of Boston, 2012. | Permalink | No comment
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