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AL ROY: Dice-K?

Dice-K for ROY (As of 8/28)

For pitchers, Dice-K has two comparable guys both a lot less heralded then Dice. Jerermy Guthrie (BAL) and Brian Bannister (KC), who are the only other two rookie pitchers in baseball with enough qualifying inning, both have had good seasons. Both pitchers have a better ERA (Bannister 3.28, Guthrie 3.46, Dice 3.76) but havn’t piled up the stats like Dice. Dice has the highest K/9 at 9.1 compared to Guthrie second at 6.1. This puts Dice 5th in the AL in total strikeouts at 176. A very important stat I like to consider is K/BB and Guthrie is 14th and Dice-K 15th. Guthrie and Bannister make their case by having the 6th and 8th best WHIP’s (Walks+Hits per IP) respectfully at 1.13 and 1.14 in the AL while Dice is listed 20th at 1.27.

The biggest difference between Dice and his pitching competitors is he has started all year and he plays for Boston while Guthrie and Bannister play for bad teams in Baltimore and Kansas City. Dice-K has made 26 starts and averaged 6.5 innings per start. Guthrie has only started 22 games and averaged 6.5 innings and Bannister started 21 games and averaged 6.4 innings. So although Dice has more starts he has not pitched longer on average. And from a view of the quality of the pitchers numbers Dice hasn’t really outperformed his competition. Even though most voters look at wins like Dice-K’s 13 to Bannister’s 10 and Guthrie’s 7. Right now Dice doesn’t stand out much from the other two. There are still a bunch of starts left and maybe Dice-K will make a solid run for ROY.

Pedroia for ROY (As of 8/30)

Pedroia has been a key piece in the Red Sox offense. He has earned his way from 9th in the order to the top of the order batting 1st and 2nd in over 276 AB’s.

Terry Francona had to say of Pedroia “The first month of the season, we spent so much time trying to defend him. He wasn’t hitting.. But he plays the ball all over the ballpark. And, man, he makes contact. There’s a lot of things in his favor.

Pedroia currently leads AL rookies in avg at .316 by 19 points (11th in the AL), leads SLG at .435 by 25 points and leads OPS at .823 by 62 points (32nd in the AL). Where Pedroia does lead is OBP where Reggie Willits has the lead at .397 (7th in the AL) and Pedroia is next at .388 (17th in the AL).

In the stat RC27 which stand for runs created per 27 outs which estimates how many runs per game a team made up of nine of the same player would score. For Dustin the estimation is 6.50 runs, and the next highest rookie, Reggie Willits (LA), at 5.47 runs. Pedroia is 21st in the AL in this stat.

Another stat showing off Pedroia’s skill is in all of baseball he is 6th in BB/K. This shows how good of control he has over his bat. Even if Pedroia is not a walk guy, he’s a guy who doesn’t strike out. Of players with over 400 plate appearances Pedroia has the 2nd fewest strikeouts at 33. He’s tied with Kenji Johjim and only Placido Polanco is ahead at an amazing 23 K’s all year with 477 AB’s.

As far as total production by rookies no one is producing a lot. Just considering the AL in major hitting categories only Delmon Young hits the top 40. He is 11th in hits at 155 and 35th in RBI’s at 69. This is most because Delmon Young is up there to swing. He is 6th in the AL in AB’s at 524. Amazing when you consider besides 13 AB’s he has batted 5th or later in the lineup. He gets at bats like a lead-off man. With his aggressive approach his 103 K’s (12th in the AL) and only 23BB’s makes sense. Where both Delmon and Pedroia hit tops in total production are doubles. Delmon has 32 putting him 18th and Pedroia has 28 putting him 29th. The only other production consideration is Reggie Willits who walks so much he is 17th in the AL.

I’d definitely say Pedroia is the best rookie batter this year in the AL. Now compared to Dice-K…

Conclusion: Who is the better rookie, Pedroia or Dice-K? I’d say Dice-K. He has stood out at a harder position and been one of the better pitchers in baseball.Good pitching is always worth more then good hitting.

Who will win the AL ROY? I’d say Pedroia has the lead because votes will get split among the good AL pitchers. The hitters in the AL can’t compare to Pedroia’s quality of at bats. He’ll get enough of the majority of votes to win outright.

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3 comments for “AL ROY: Dice-K?”

  1. Pedroia is probably a better pick for ROY than Dice-K. Also people should take a closer look at Billy Butler. He’s got pretty good numbers so far with half the at-bats.

    Posted by Dave | August 29, 2007, 9:08 am
  2. I don’t think Butler will aplly to ROY because he won’t have enough AB’s to qualify for a full years play. You need to average 3 AB’s per game. At this point he’ll need 8.4 AB’s per game to qualify

    Posted by Dan | August 31, 2007, 2:43 am
  3. Or maybe not. Maybe you just got to rock it. Helps to have played awhile tho.

    Posted by Dan | August 31, 2007, 4:47 am

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